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India's fuel consumption outlook is affected by price increases and slowing industrial activity
India is expected to have less growth this year in its gasoline and diesel consumption after a series?of price hikes last week that reflected?higher fuel costs caused by the Iran War,?"with 'early signs stress in the trucking industry already evident. Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum, and Hindustan Petroleum have implemented four rounds of increases in prices since mid-May. Earlier they had held off due to the elections. The price of gasoline is now 7.8% more expensive, while diesel prices are 8.6% higher. Analysts believe that there may be further price increases, which will likely dampen the demand even more. Retailers are still selling fuels below market rates. They are losing an average of 5.5 billion rupees (57 million dollars) per day. India's slowing fuel sales growth, as the world's largest importer and consumer of fuel, will dampen global demand, now that China has reached its peak in transportation fuel consumption. Dylan Sim, analyst at FGE NexantECA, said: "We expect India's gas demand growth to fall to between 3.5-3.7% by 2026 due to reduced discretionary driving." This compares to an earlier estimate that 4% growth. The consultancy also reduced its forecast growth in diesel demand from 2.5% to 2%. Moody's Indian Rating Arm ICRA has revised its forecast of gasoline demand growth to 3%-4% for the current financial year, down from 5%-6% in the period before war. Diesel demand is expected to remain flat or even shrink, compared to an earlier forecast of 2%-3% growth. Prashant Vashisth said that diesel and gasoline prices could increase inflation, which could harm end-user demand. He said that the Middle East conflict could also lead to increased logistics and shipping costs. This would have a negative impact on diesel demand. LESS INDUSTRIAL EXPLOITATION AFFECTS TRUCKERS Since the war, oil prices in the world have risen by 40% and are now trading at around $100 a barrel. Before the conflict, a fifth of all oil supply passed through the Strait of Hormuz. In the trucking industry, there are signs of a?lower demand for diesel due to?slower industrial activity. SP Singh, senior Fellow at the Indian Foundation of Transport Research and Training, stated that freight prices had fallen between 13% and 15 % on three quarters of the key long-haul routes, despite an increase in fuel prices. Singh noted that drivers have to wait longer before returning from trips. "Truckers do not get return tonnages. He said there is a 3-5 day delay because the manufacturing process has slowed. This is impacting their revenue, as their "round trips per months have been reduced." According to preliminary data, Indian gasoline retailers saw their sales rise 2.8% in May compared to a year ago. Gasoil sales also increased 0.9%. This compares to April's figures, which showed a 6.8% rise in gasoline sales and a 0.8% growth for gasoil.
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Inditex, Zara's owner, gains on Mideast tensions
European shares fell marginally Wednesday, as renewed hostilities over the Middle East pushed oil prices up and dampened hopes for an imminent peace agreement. However, Inditex (the owner of Zara) gained after reporting that the summer had started well. The pan-European STOXX 600 Index?dipped by 0.1% to 624.32 at 0805 GMT. The?U.S. military said it 'thwarted Iranian missile attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait and other regional targets. The U.S. military claimed it had 'thwarted Iranian missile strikes on Bahrain, Kuwait, and other regional targets. Brent crude prices rose by 2%. The U.S. president Donald Trump's comment that talks with Iran were in progress kept losses under control. Airlines that are sensitive to energy prices, such as 'Lufthansa' and 'Air France?, have each fallen 1%. Auto stocks led the sectoral declines by falling 1.2%. Inditex, among other stocks rose nearly 5% following the announcement by the?Spanish firm of a successful start to summer trading. Retail as a whole grew by 2%, the highest among all sectors. Reporting by Utkarsh hathi and Johann M Cherian, both in Bengaluru. Editing by Sonia Cheema.
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Maguire: South America's ascent to become a key crude oil supplier
South America has quietly emerged as the key source of global crude flow. While oil markets are fixated on disruptions in Middle East exports, and the surging U.S. supply by 2026. The region, led by Brazil, Guyana, and Venezuela, has seen the biggest increase in oil production of any producing block so far this season, reshaping global trade patterns and enhancing the role the Atlantic basin plays?in the global supply. The shift was gradual, uncoordinated and dispersed. In?aggregate it turns South America into de facto swing suppliers hiding in plain site. Overlooked Oil market attention has been focused on the collapse of crude oil exports to date from the Middle East. Kpler, a commodities intelligence company, shows that the region has anchored the global crude trade with around 43% of seaborne oil exports during the last decade. The near-total closing of the Strait of Hormuz in March has reduced shipments by over a quarter from January to May, compared with the previous year. This leaves a shortfall of approximately 675 million barrels. This gap is so large that no single producer can quickly fill it, and the markets are forced to rely heavily on their inventories. This has increased the importance of other sources of supply, notably South America. Exports have been reduced by several exporters this year to help offset some of the disruption. South America has seen the largest increase in exports year-over-year, with a rise of around 155,000,000 barrels, surpassing the growth rate for all other regions. RAPID RISE Kpler reports that the United States is the top-ranked nation among the 10 countries to have increased crude oil exports most in 2026. The United States registered a 112-million barrel?increase between January and May 2026 compared to 2025. South America has made a more significant structural and broader contribution. Brazil, Guyana, and Venezuela have all seen their shipments of?crude oil increase this year. They collectively added around 145 millions barrels. With the addition of 12 million barrels in Argentina, these key nations have seen gains exceeding 157 million barrels over the previous year. South America's expansion has been curtailed by a few small declines in export volumes this year. However, the total volume shipped from the region between January and May is still a record at 787 million barrels. This represents an 84% increase compared to the 430 million barrels produced in the same period of 2021. Brazil and Guyana have been the driving forces behind this regional expansion. Brazil is the top exporter in the region since 2019. This was the year that it overtook Venezuelan shipments for the first time. The total Brazilian crude oil exports from January to May grew by 71%, going up from 211 million barrels to 361 million this year. This growth spurt has been overshadowed, however, by the rapid increase in loadings from Guyana. The country only began exporting oil in 2020 but increased its loadings from January to May this year from around 17 million barrels. The 700% increase in Guyana’s oil exports was the largest among major oil exporters during that time period. This helped to keep South America as a major source of oil despite Venezuela’s steady decline. Exxon's massive investment in the Uaru and Whiptail oil projects should see the production of the country's oil begin in the next year. Guyana is expected to export nearly all its additional barrels, as it does not have a refining facility of its own. Add to that the expected growth in exports from Venezuela and South America is well positioned to continue its expansion on the oil markets and establish itself as an important source of oil outside the Middle East. These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks.
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Lee visits Central Asia to promote Hong Kong as a resource-rich region
Hong Kong's leader, who led his government's largest delegation ever on a tour of Uzbekistan after Kazakhstan, arrived on Wednesday. The group was on a promotional tour to promote the city's?Chinese rule as a financial gateway and business hub to China and Southeast Asia. The visit by a 70-member delegation?that includes 40 business leaders is part of Hong Kong's efforts to connect resource-rich countries along Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative to China's largest off-shore finance hub in order to boost trade and financial activities amid increasing geopolitical tensions and soaring demand for strategic natural ressources. Lee, who will be in Uzbekistan from Monday to Friday, after starting his trip in Kazakhstan, hopes to "deepen the collaboration in trade, investment promotion, financial, information, and technology services as well as in culture and tourism." Hong Kong will be a "super connector" and a "super value-adder," Lee stated, helping Central Asian firms explore markets in mainland China, and other parts of Asia. It will also enable Hong Kong and mainland companies to "go international." Singapore has courted Central Asian nations in the past few years and positioned itself as a gateway into Southeast Asia. Cathay Pacific has announced it will resume flights to Almaty in Kazakhstan's mountainous capital city, Almaty. This will happen during the first quarter 2027. It will be the only airline to offer direct flights between Hong Kong and Kazakhstan. Growing Trade Ties Hong Kong's economic exchanges and trade with Central?Asia has grown rapidly in the last few years. Official data shows that the total merchandise trade in 2025 will be over $320 millions, a 27% increase compared to 2020. Lee stated that Hong 'Kong was developing new growth areas. These include a central clearing system, which is planned for trial operations this year. Jiaxin International Resources Investment is an example of the growing relationship. It operates a large tungsten mine in Kazakhstan. The?company raised HK$1.2billion ($153.1m) in August last year through a simultaneous debut at the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the Astana?International Exchange (AIX). The shares of the miner - which is based in Hong Kong, and backed by two major Chinese state owned enterprises - have risen by almost 290% since its debut. This has been driven by global shortages and the rising price for strategic metal.
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Middle East Airlines safety audit launched in Lebanon amid complaints from pilot groups
According to letters seen by, Lebanon's aviation regulator has launched a safety review of Middle East Airlines after pilot groups expressed concern that crews are being forced to fly "close to airstrikes" and punished for reporting safety incidents. The audit focuses on the Beirut flag carrier that has kept the country 'connected' through war and financial collapse, even though many foreign airlines avoided large areas of Middle East airspace due to missile and drone -risks -since the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran began. MEA has around 20 planes that fly in the Middle East and Europe, as well as West Africa. They have been praised for their ability to continue flying during conflict, and also to help support a struggling economy, more dependent on tourism and remittances. The airline claimed to have a proven record of safety and said that all flights conducted during hostilities in Lebanon were based on risk assessment developed with the Lebanese Civil Aviation Authority, a regulator for aviation and government. Since 2024, several Israeli airstrikes landed near Lebanon's biggest airport. This has raised concerns for the International Federation of Air Line Pilots' Associations' (IFALPA), a federation of?global pilot unions. As Israeli attacks on Lebanon intensified this year, amid a wider conflict with Iran-backed Hezbollah, aviation concerns have increased. While some may consider flying civilian aircraft with passengers through high-risk conflict zones and war zones heroic, IFALPA's Ron Hay wrote a letter on May 12 to Lebanon's Central Bank, which owns a majority share of MEA. MEA is the central bank known as Banque du Liban. The airline stated that "The sons of MEA's chairman and LCAA's chairman are both MEA captains and have flown throughout this period." The LEBANESe regulator conducts a safety audit of MEA products. In a letter dated May 15, LCAA's Mohammed Aziz (an air crash investigator) informed IFALPA that his team was conducting an aviation audit of MEA. They would also "engage in a dialog with MEA in order to?discuss your concerns stated in your email." MEA stated that the LCAA's oversight activity on MEA between May 18 and June 1 confirmed compliance with the "regulatory requirements" as well as operational safety. Aziz said that a meeting was held with the airline on Monday but the LCAA was still in process. "We were in the middle of mediating between the MEA and the pilots," he added. According to one MEA pilot, aviators have a financial incentive for flying since the per-flight payment makes up most of their salary. Their base salary has been slashed as a result of a Lebanese recession that began in 2019. IFALPA and other aviator organizations have flagged cases in which pilots who reported unintentional mistakes to improve safety were punished by being sent to "training", where the pilots lose out on their per-flight payment. Hay, speaking by phone, said: "We are certain that pilots have complained and actions have been taken against them." MEA said IFALPA’s allegations were "unfounded". It added that training assignments are conducted in accordance with regulatory requirements, and "shouldn't be misconstrued" as disciplinary measures or retaliatory actions. PILOTS CONTACT US PARTNERS IN EUROPE, THE U.S. SkyTeam, an airline alliance that includes MEA, Air France, Delta Air Lines and other carriers, was contacted by pilot groups in order to spread the word. Dara van langen, chairperson of the SkyTeam Pilots Association said in an article: "If you are putting?your passengers on the plane of another airline, then you will want to make sure that the safety level is what you desire." The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration and the European Union Aviation Safety Agency both require that airlines within their jurisdictions audit codeshare partners abroad to ensure similar safety. Air France, which has a codeshare deal with MEA, says it audits its codeshare partners regularly. SkyTeam, Delta and other interline carriers with less comprehensive agreements said that they were aware of the pilots' concerns, and were closely monitoring the situation. They also stressed safety as a priority. MEA PAYS WORKERS IN CIVIL AVIATION IFALPA also expressed concern that MEA paid LCAA employees overseeing aviation safety. A spreadsheet of financial aid for the month November, reviewed by LCAA, showed that dozens of employees of the airline received payments. This included three aviation'safety' workers. If your airline pays (partly or entirely) for the oversight of its airline, then "you wouldn't want to raise a fuss about it would you?" Hay, IFALPA spokesperson. MEA stated that it provided financial assistance in coordination with the government of Lebanon to ensure that the country's aircraft infrastructure operated after the financial crisis led to a collapse in the currency. It said that the pay of air traffic controllers was reduced by over 90%, to less than $100 per month. The carrier claimed that its support of the LCAA did not impact the "independence or authority" of the agency, and Aziz and other leaders were not paid. (Reporting from Allison Lampert, Montreal; Additional reporting provided by Maya Gebeily, Beirut; editing by Jamie Freed).
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BHP, Australia's BHP, explores ship biofuel made from animal fat and cooking oil
BHP Australia and the Global Centre for Maritime Decarbonisation in Singapore have refueled a cargo ship with biofuel that is made from waste cooking oil and animal fat as part of a pilot project. As the shipping industry looks for alternatives to conventional marine diesel to reduce emissions, it is necessary to investigate novel blends. Due to a lack of supply, companies are now looking at other waste-based feedstocks, such as animal fats. The Berge Lyngor owned and operated Berge Bulk, a BHP chartered bulk carrier, used the blend to transport iron ore from Western Australia to China. The ship bunkered in Singapore 'early May' with a 'full biofuel blend consisting 50% tallow-derived Biodiesel supplied by HAMR Energy and 50% used cooking oils supplied by Mitsui & Co. Energy Trading Singapore. BHP and GCMD stated that the pilot will evaluate how biofuels can be blended, handled, and introduced in real-world conditions using existing bunkering facilities applied to used cooking oil. The project will identify solutions for challenges relating to fuel quality, handling, traceability, and vessel performance. The study will also assess potential problems that could arise from the use of biofuels made from different feedstocks. These include corrosion due to oxidation, and fuel system clogging from wax formation. BHP and GCMD stated that using the bio-blend fuel can reduce greenhouse gas?emissions for one voyage by 79% compared to sailing on conventional low-sulphur fuel oil. Fuel production, delivery, and use onboard vessels are all covered by Well-to Wake. (Reporting and editing by Kevin Buckland; Jeslyn Lerh)
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Oil products shipments exit Hormuz, LNG tanker loads at UAE
Shipping data shows that two tankers with oil products have left the Strait of Hormuz in the last week while a liquefied gas carrier has loaded cargo into the United Arab Emirates. These are rare movements, as the traffic through this chokepoint is still limited. The U.S. and Israeli war against Iran began on February 28, but despite the fact that several tankers left the Gulf over the last month, oil and LNG flow is still severely restricted. Around a fifth of the world's oil and LNG supplies normally pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The Aframax Cy Victorious tanker,?carrying 80,000 metric tonnes (more than 508,000 barrels), of high-sulfur straight-run fuel, left the strait May 30 according to ship tracking data from Kpler & LSEG. The vessel is expected to arrive in Malaysia in the second half of June, after it was last loaded in Iraq's Khor al Zubair Port in early April. Kpler data shows that another Long-Range 2 Tanker Sti Elysees loaded with clean Kuwaiti products in late February left the Strait on May 29. The?destination of the tanker is unknown. FLUCTUATING HOPES The Marigold LNG tanker managed by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, (ADNOC) loaded a cargo at UAE's Das Island between May 24-25, according to analytics firm Vortexa. In a report published on Monday, Vortexa reported that "the vessel halted AIS transmittals on 3 May prior to a 'dark inbound transit of Strait of Hormuz". AIS (Automatic Identification System) is used to track the location of ships. Some vessels turn off AIS when they are trying to cross strait. It is the last of a four-ship group controlled by ADNOC, who all turned off AIS, to cross Hormuz in a westward direction? To reload. "The other three – Mraweh Al Hamra, and Umm Al Astan – have already made their subsequent dark outbound transits," Vortexa stated. Kpler data shows that the Marigold last sighted east of?the Strait was May 1. However, it had been loaded at Das Island by May 25. ADNOC refused to comment on the positions, movements or routings of its ships, citing a company policy. According to Vortexa Kpler LSEG data, four ballast LNG tanks have moved recently towards the eastern entry of the strait, and are now positioned there. Ashley Sherman, senior LNG Analyst at Vortexa, stated that the vessels reached their current position on May 30-31. He said that while such movements were not new, they reflected fluctuating hopes of a reopening the strait as well as a "broader peace agreement". Al Hamra returned to the strait last week after delivering cargo from Das Island to India. Around May 25-27, Al Areesh Al Khuwair Al Marrouna (all controlled by QatarEnergy) began moving towards the strait from the waters near India and Sri Lanka. QatarEnergy has not responded to our request for comment. Reporting by Emily Chow and Florence Tan. Mark Potter edited the article.
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Tropical Storm Jangmi hits Japan and cuts power to 60,000 households
Tropical storm Jangmi, which was accompanied by torrential rain and fierce winds, swept across Japan?Wednesday afternoon, knocking out the power to tens of thousands of homes. Japan's Meteorological Agency reported that the'storm's' 'centre' lay off Honshu's central island, and was tracking northeast to the greater Tokyo area with sustained winds up to 25 metres per second. Minoru Kihara, a government spokesperson, said that the storm has caused a loss of?electricity to nearly 60,000 homes. Kihara advised: "If you feel any danger, do not hesitate to act quickly?to save your life." Residents of eight prefectures in southwestern and central Japan were advised to evacuate. On Wednesday morning, Japan Airlines and All Nippon Airways cancelled almost 900 domestic and international flights. East Japan Railway reported that certain?rail services? in the Tokyo area had been suspended, and others could be affected throughout the day. In anticipation of severe weather conditions on Wednesday morning, Toyota Motor announced on Tuesday it would suspend the operations at 13 domestic factories. Suzuki Motor will?also stop work in the morning at all five plants in Shizuoka Prefecture east of Tokyo. (Reporting and editing by Kevin Buckland; Additional reporting from Kaori Kaneko, Kantaro Kommiya and Mariko Katsumura)
Ukraine's railways must raise tariffs after Russian attacks to restore finances
The 'CEO' of Ukraine's state railway said that the company must increase freight rates by at least 45% in order to restore its finances. The railway is still a crucial part of Ukraine's logistic network. It carries both passengers and freight. The increased expenditure on infrastructure and security is putting pressure on its cash flow, at a time of debt restructuring.
Oleksandr P. Pertsovskyi, CEO of Ukrzaliznytsia, said that freight rates must be raised because the railway cannot subsidise the rest of the economy with its own resources.
"We understand the challenges that some sectors of the economic are facing. He said: "We understand that they have all been affected by the rising cost of energy, but the railway cannot continue to subsidise them."
Pertsovskyi stated that tariffs must increase by at least 45 percent, which would cover approximately half of the projected cash shortfall for the company of 26 billion hryvnias ($587 millions).
"45% isn't enough because we have such a large gap. But we know that this compromise solution allows us to at least hold out," Pertsovskyi stated.
Tariff increases are important, not only for immediate liquidity, but also to facilitate discussions with bondholders about debt restructuring as well as the ability of the company to obtain new loans.
In?2022, Ukrzaliznytsia negotiated a deal that would delay the?payments of its Eurobonds worth $895 million, which included $594.9 millions due in July 2020 and $300 million due July 2026.
In January 2025, the company paid 38.27 millions dollars to cover coupon payments since July 2024.
Ukrzaliznytsia, which has failed to reach an agreement with its creditors over restructuring of more than $1 billion in bonds to date, says it will come up with a fresh proposal by the end of July.
Pertsovskyi, referring to an increase in tariffs proportional to the rise of?key costs, said that "all (bondholders), are waiting for decisions."
Farmers and steelmakers, who are Ukrzaliznytsia’s main customers, have consistently opposed the plans to increase tariffs. They say that an increase in tariffs would make their products less competitive on global markets.
Last week, Prime Minister Yulia svyrydenko informed the parliament that she is in negotiations with business representatives about an increase in transportation fares.
STRIKES ON MOTOR VEHICLES
Pertsovskyi stated that the financial problems faced by the railway are largely due to Russia's efforts?to cripple its operations through attacks on locomotives, depots power substations, and bridges.
He said, "The increase in attacks is crazy." This wave is notable for the number of locomotives that have been attacked. "We have over 100 diesel locomotives and electric locomotives that have been attacked."
Pertsovskyi stated that the nature of attacks has changed due to?Russia's use of drones equipped video cameras and with online controls, which allows them to target rolling material in real-time. The railway also records strikes on energy infrastructure which supports train movement, including on routes to Black Sea ports in?Odesa - an important export route.
He said that "Russia's goal is to" sever the most critical export corridors. This includes those connecting our metallurgical areas, like Kryvyi RIh and Zaporizhzhia as well as our industrial east, to Odesa ports and western border crossings. He confirmed that the railway is participating in a private government air defence project but refused to reveal details of deployment locations due to security concerns. (Reporting and editing by Kirby Donovan; Pavel Polityuk)
(source: Reuters)