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South Korea visa waiver will boost travel, but not Chinese airline profit

Analysts said that South Korea's decision granting visa-free entry for Chinese tour groups would boost China's low outbound travel numbers, but not enough to improve the bottom line of struggling Chinese Airlines.

South Korea is the third most popular destination for Chinese tourists, after Japan and Thailand. However, overall outbound travel remains below the pre-pandemic level.

As Seoul opens a temporary airport, airlines are hoping to increase their numbers.

Visa waivers for Chinese passport holders

The scheme is set to run from the end of September, right before China's National Day week long holiday, to the end June of next year. This follows a decision made by Beijing in November last year to grant visa-free entry to South Koreans as well as foreign visitors.

Flight Master, a provider of aviation data, reports that the flight capacity between China and South Korea is now 105% higher than it was before the pandemic. This is more than China's total international capacity which stands at only 93%.

Analysts say that while visa waivers could increase passenger numbers, airline profitability may remain under pressure because of intensifying competition which is dampening ticket price.

The three largest state-owned carriers have reported even greater losses in the first quarter, adding to their cumulative losses of 206.3 billion Yuan ($28.9billion) over the past five years.

China Southern Airlines (owned by the state), Air China and China Eastern Airlines will all report their first-half results later this week.

Li Hanming is an independent aviation analyst based in the United States. He said that due to the short distance between China and Korea, routes are already oversupplied, and fares are very low.

The majority of travellers from higher-tiered cities already have their long-term...visa, so group tours are more important in lower-tiered cities. However, these passengers will not pay premium prices because they're price-sensitive.

Investors are likely to be more concerned about the financial health and stability of Chinese airlines if margins remain weak. These airlines have been heavily affected by the US-China trade war.

Li said, "I do not expect these challenges to be alleviated for the three largest airlines in the second part of the year."

Trip.com Group data shows that top-tier cities such as Shanghai, Beijing and Hangzhou are the top 10 source markets for travel from mainland China to South Korea.

Some experts warn that an increase in South Korea travel demand could be a temporary bump.

Su Shu, the founder of Moment Travel in Chengdu, described the effect on the country's economy as "a blip, followed by fading". Singapore is the only developed nation to date to grant visa-free entry to Chinese passport holders.

South Korea is not a destination for tourists, but rather one that's "close and affordable". She said that repeat visitors were rare.

(source: Reuters)