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After new US interceptions, oil loading in Venezuela has slowed. More ships are making U-turns.
According to tracking data, and sources, tanker loading in Venezuela has decreased on Monday. Most ships are only moving oil cargoes between domestic ports after U.S. action against two more ships, and while state-run PDVSA is struggling to recover from a recent cyberattack. U.S. officials said that the U.S. Coast Guard seized this month an oil supertanker carrying Venezuelan oil under sanctions and attempted to intercept "two more" Venezuela-related ships on the weekend. The U.S. Coast Guard seized a supertanker carrying Venezuelan oil this month and tried to intercept?two more?Venezuela-related ships over the weekend, U.S. authorities said. Washington hasn't provided any updated information about the ships. Last week, U.S. president Donald Trump announced a ban on all oil tankers that are subject to sanctions from entering or leaving Venezuela. Trump's campaign of pressure on Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro includes a stepped-up military presence and over two dozen military attacks on vessels that the U.S. claims are "transporting drugs" in the Pacific Ocean or Caribbean Sea near South America nation. At least 100 people were killed. OIL PRICES ARE RISING The interceptions of the vessels have been the biggest blow to PDVSA ever since the U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions in 2020 on two units from Rosneft that were former oil trading companies owned by PDVSA, forcing them to reduce their output and exports. Brent crude futures rose?2.17% on Monday to $61.78 per barrel, while U.S. WTI oil rose 2.2% to $57.77 in response to U.S. action and Russia's conflict with Ukraine. Both developments raised fears of supply disruptions. PDVSA delivered heavy crude of 1.9 million barrels to the Aruba flagged vessel Azure Voyager on Monday at the Jose port. However, no other supertanker bound towards Asia was scheduled to load anytime soon, according documents from the company. In recent days the number of tankers loaded with Venezuelan oil that haven't left has increased. Millions of barrels are stuck on ships while customers demand higher discounts and contract modifications to make risky trips beyond Venezuelan waters. LSEG monitoring data revealed on Monday that some tankers nearing Venezuela's coastline, whether to load oil to export or deliver imported naphtha for import, made U-turns recently or suspended navigation until owners clarified instructions to load. PDVSA slowly restores some online systems, and is resorting to paper records following a cyberattack that occurred last week. Sources said that the company was unable to re-establish its centralized administrative system and many employees have not received their salary on time. PDVSA, Venezuela's Oil Ministry and the Venezuelan Oil Ministry did not respond to requests for comments. Yvan GIL, the country's Minister of Foreign Affairs, stated on Monday that U.S. seizures violate international law and constitute "acts" of piracy. China's Foreign Ministry stated on Monday that the recent U.S. interception was a serious breach of international law. LSEG ship data revealed that PDVSA's principal joint-venture partner Chevron shipped a 500,000 barrel cargo of?Venezuelan crude oil to the U.S. Gulf Coast via one of its tankers on Sunday. The shipment was authorized by the United States. In a post on social media, Delcy Rodriguez, Venezuela's Oil Minister said that Venezuela hadn't interrupted Chevron's deliveries. The video included showed the Venezuelan maritime authority watching over the departure of the ship. Monitoring data shows that Chevron exported seven cargoes of Venezuelan oil into the U.S. in this month. Each one contained between 300,000 to 500,000 barrels. US ACTIONS PURSUED A satellite image acquired by TankerTrackers.com revealed that the Panama-flagged supertanker Bella 1 was drifting northeast of Bermuda, in the Caribbean on Monday. An official from the United States told reporters on Sunday that no one had boarded the tanker and that there were many ways to intercept vessels, including flying or sailing close. On Sunday, maritime sources reported that the loaded vessel Skipper - the first to be seized by the U.S. in this month - had reached an area near Galveston port, Texas, for the transfer of oil cargoes.
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Honeywell to charge $470 Million for Flexjet Settlement
Honeywell said Monday that it expected to "record a one time charge of about $470 million" in the fourth quarter related to a possible settlement of Flexjet litigation. This sent its shares down by 1.3% during premarket trading. Flexjet, a private aviation company, sued Honeywell on?March 20, 2023 for allegedly breaching an agreement regarding aircraft engine maintenance services. Flexjet demanded liquidated damages for?delayed repairs of engines and said the damages continue to accrue each month. Honeywell updated its full year outlook, as it plans on reporting its 'Advanced Materials Unit' as discontinued operations beginning in the 'fourth quarter 2025. This follows the successful spin-off of Solstice Advanced Materials. The industrial conglomerate's profit forecast for this year is now between $9.70 to $9.80 per share, down from the previous estimate of $10.60 - $10.70.
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Telecom Italia ditches costly savings shares
Telecom Italia has announced a 'long-awaited' plan to convert expensive savings shares into ordinary stocks after a windfall compensation that will help the company resume dividend payments which were halted by 2022. TIM won a case involving concession fees worth 1 billion euros ($1.2 billion). The company can now proceed with a conversion that, according to the company, will simplify its capital structure and governance. It will also reduce costs associated with multiple share classes. TIM's shares of savings rose by 9% on Monday morning after the company announced the terms of conversion late Sunday. By 1040 GMT, the gains had fallen to just 4.5%. The ordinary shares of the?company were down by 2.2%. Intermonte analysts, who advised TIM together with Goldman Sachs on the 'plan,' said the move could cost TIM around 630 million euro. Intermonte stated that if TIM reinstates dividend payments from next year onwards, the savings resulting from the cancellation of the privileged class of shares, which pays higher dividends, are estimated at around 1 billion euros. Davide Leone's London-based investment company is the largest holder of TIM saving shares. He welcomed the?proposed term as "market-friendly", and said that it was good for both types shareholders. TIM called meetings for ordinary shareholders and savings investors on January 28, to?vote about the proposal. Poste Italiane is TIM's biggest shareholder, with a holding of 27.3%, and supports the conversion despite its dilutive effects on its stake. Poste Italiane would lose 19.6% of its stake if the conversion were to take place. Sources said that the Italian Post Office is examining options to rebuild a stake in TIM, including transferring PosteMobile, its phone service business, to TIM as an exchange for shares. For voluntary conversion, savings shareholders will be offered a new ordinary share in exchange for each saved share. They will also receive 0.12 euros cash. Savings shares that remain after the conversion period will be converted in the same ratio, but with a cash adjustment of 0.04 euros.
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Azerbaijan wants to increase food wheat production and reduce Russian import dependence
Azerbaijan imports the majority of its food grade wheat from Russia and plans to increase local production in the coming years to 50% of needs from 20% currently, according to a senior official at the agriculture ministry. Azerbaijan wants to reduce its dependence upon imports from Russia, which is the largest exporter of wheat in the world. Azerbaijan imported 1.292 millions metric tons of wheat from Russia in 2024. Seymur afarli is the head of the Crop Production Organisation and Monitoring Department in the Ministry of Agriculture. He said that the annual demand for Azerbaijan's food-grade grain?stands around 1.8 million tons. Azerbaijan is increasing its wheat imports from Kazakhstan. This country currently accounts for 9% Azerbaijan’s total imports. Safarli stated that the ministry plans to gradually increase output by rolling out new irrigation systems, improving farming techniques and encouraging consolidation in the sector. He also said that imports will likely remain the same in 2026. Azerbaijan has launched a programme with the support of the state to boost production of high-quality grains by 2022. In 2025, the program will see around 23,000 hectares of food-grade wheat planted. Safarli stated that the average yields in these areas are 5.6 metric tonnes per hectare. This is nearly twice as much as the national level. Azerbaijan’s total wheat production fell this year, from 1.69 to 1.58 millions tons. This was largely because of a decrease in the planted area. (Reporting and editing by Gleb Brianski, Kirsten Doovan).
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Fire at Odesa port and power outages caused by Russian attack
A senior Ukrainian official reported that Russian troops attacked port and energy infrastructure during an overnight attack in Ukraine's Odesa Region. They allegedly caused a fire to break out at a major harbor and disrupted electricity for tens if not hundreds of thousands?of people. Ukraine's Black Sea port is crucial to its export-driven economic system. Their security and functionality has been vital to the country's survival during nearly four years of war since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. Oleksiy Kuleba, the Deputy Prime Minister of Russia, said in a Telegram message that "Russia is attempting to disrupt maritime logistic by launching a systematic attack on port and energy infrastructure." "Last evening, ports and energy facilities were again targeted." Kuleba reported that following the 'attacks,' a fire had broken out at Pivdennyi port and around 30 containers of vegetable oil and flour were on fire. The fire was being tackled by emergency services and port workers. He said that because of the damage to the energy grid, more than 120,000 Odesa customers were without electricity. The interior ministry reported that one person was injured in the attack. The overnight attack was not commented on by Russia immediately. Officials from Ukraine said that Russia has intensified its attacks in recent weeks on Odesa and the surrounding area, aiming to "limit Ukraine's ability to access the Black Sea" and to "disrupt critical logistic routes to the border with Moldova". Ukraine is also targeting Russia's maritime logistic, focusing more on the shadow fleet of oil tankers used to circumvent sanctions imposed by Russia for its war.
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Source: Russia's pipeline exports of gas to China have increased by 25% in the past year.
Sources familiar with data said that Russia's natural gas exports to China will have increased by 25% this year, as Moscow increases its sales to Asia. Calculations showed that this would not compensate for the revenue loss due to the loss of European gas markets. Since the beginning of the Ukraine war in 2022, Russia has diverted most of its oil towards India and China as Moscow and Europe, once its primary commodity export market and revenue source, severed their ties. The 'diversion of gas flows to the east has proven to be more difficult and painstaking discussions to bring more Russian Gas to China have produced limited results. Source, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he wasn't authorised to speak to media, stated that Russian energy giant Gazprom anticipates that gas exports from Russia to China via the Power of Siberia Pipeline will reach approximately 38.6-38.7 bcm this year. This is up from 31 bcm by 2024, and exceeds the planned annual capacity of the pipeline of 38 bcm. Gazprom didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment. Alexei Miller, its Chief Executive Officer, said in October that the company's Power of Siberia I supplies would surpass 38 bcm for this year. The countries reached an agreement during the visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to China in September to increase the annual volume on the route from 44 bcm to 6 bcm. Russia and China have also given their blessings to the Power of Siberia 2 pipe, which will one day be able to deliver 50 bcm of Russian Gas per year via Mongolia from the Arctic gas field of Yamal. The price of Russian Gas remains the biggest obstacle to the implementation of the project. China also agreed to buy more gas via a pipeline in Russia's Far East, from Sakhalin Island. The previous agreement was for 10 bcm per year. The route should be operational by 2027. Loss of European Market and Revenue According to the Russian economy ministry, revenue from gas exported to China in 2025-2028 will be 30-40% less than that of gas exported to Europe. Only the TurkStream pipeline, which runs under the Black Sea, is a viable route for Russian gas to reach Europe. The deliveries via Ukraine, which had been around 12-15 billion cubic meters in recent years, were stopped at the beginning of the year because?Moscow failed to extend the transit agreement with Kyiv. Gas exports in Russia generated approximately 420 billion Russian roubles (5.28 billion dollars) for the budget between January and November, according to data from the Russian Finance Ministry. Calculations show that gas exports are expected to raise approximately 470 billion Russian roubles (roughly $4.7 billion) this year. This is 71% less than the record of 1.63 trillion roubles set in 2022, when European hubs saw gas prices soar. It's also down from $490 billion in 2024.
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Air India 777 aircraft returns after engine oil pressure drops, regulators say
India's aviation regulator revealed on Monday that an Air?India Boeing 777 had to return?after?a fall in oil pressure caused the pilots to shut down one of the jet engines. Directorate General of Civil Aviation said that the incident would be investigated. The aircraft was on its way to Mumbai, India's financial center. Modern aircraft can safely land and fly on one engine if necessary. Air India was under intense scrutiny after the crash of a Boeing Dreamliner on June 12, which killed 260 people. The DGCA flagged'multiple safety lapses' at a?airline, which was owned by the government until 2022. Air India's investigation into why its planes flew commercially without airworthiness permits found "systemic failings", and the airline admitted it needed to improve on compliance. Pilots noticed a low oil pressure in the right engine of a B777-300ER aircraft on Monday during flap retraction. The pressure dropped below zero shortly after and the crew'shut down' the engine as per protocol, according to the DGCA. Air India regrets the inconvenience caused by this unexpected situation. Air India's spokesperson stated that the aircraft was undergoing necessary checks. Flightradar24 reports that the aircraft is 15-years-old and has been to places like Vienna, Vancouver, and Chicago. Boeing did not respond immediately to a comment request on the incident. (Reporting and editing by Rashmi aich and Christian Schmollinger; Abhijith ganapavaram and Komal Salecha)
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Which bullish 2026 equity investments don't need AI euphoria to be successful? : Helen Jewell
Equity investors looking for a smooth ride through 2026 may want to consider increasing their exposure beyond the artificial intelligence euphoria. Opportunities could be hidden in plain sight. Investors should be cautious. The valuations of U.S. equity are stretched. The Shiller price-earnings for the S&P 500 is above 40, which is very close to the levels during the dot-com boom in the 1990s. Markets have become 'highly concentrated. Goldman Sachs analysis shows that the five largest U.S. tech companies, Nvidia Apple Alphabet Microsoft and Amazon, have a combined value greater than?the Euro STOXX?50. This includes Britain, India Japan and Canada stock markets. The CBOE Volatility index has been spiking in recent months, which raises doubts about the AI-fueled rally this year. Many regions and sectors outside the U.S. technology sector generated steady returns last year - and many will be able to do so again next. Beyond the U.S. The U.S. was not the only region that had equity in 2025. At the beginning of December, the world's largest market was ranked 20th for the year-to date performance by country. This is based on the local currency returns. South Korea and Spain led the pack. It was not necessary to be in the U.S. for double-digit returns. Goldman Sachs reports that 84% of stock markets in all countries have seen a rise greater than 10% over the last 12 months. There are many reasons why international stocks could continue to perform better next year. European stocks could benefit from an increase in economic activity. The loan growth rate is rising and the composite purchasing managers' (PMI), which measures economic expansion, is above 50. The German fiscal stimulus program and European defence spending could turbocharge this cyclical growth in 2026. This should help cyclical European businesses, like those that make trucks and mining equipment. This is especially true if the euro/dollar rate stabilizes in 2019. In Japan, the combination of healthy inflation with corporate transformation (many companies are seeking to streamline and focus on core businesses) could continue driving higher profits and shareholder returns by 2026. The government's lower chamber just passed a $117billion supplementary budget, to "fund massive fiscal stimuli" that should support the economy. Japan is the only major economy that we expect to see interest rates rise in 2026. However, this should boost banks and not be a drag on growth. Earnings in emerging markets may be supported through a weaker US dollar, lower interest rates globally, and an influx of money and investments as global supply chain realignment occurs to accommodate trade tensions and geopolitical conflict. My home market, the UK, which outperformed the U.S. without any help from high-profile AI-winners, has the potential to provide steady, stable returns. This is especially true given that valuations are currently among the lowest of all developed markets. Investors must identify British companies with the potential to overcome the negative perceptions still surrounding the country. Beyond Technology The story is similar for all sectors. It's not just about U.S. technology. In local currency terms, European banks outperformed "Magnificent 7" by 40 percentages points over the past five years. There is no mention of a bubble. The valuations remain below the long-term averages. Our analysis shows that European Banks as a whole will return 24% of their market capitalization to shareholders in the next three year via dividends and share buybacks. In recent years, healthcare stocks have been less successful than the overall market. This traditionally defensive sector, where demand is independent of economic cycles, has consistently shown strong earnings growth even in times of market stress. According to our analysis, healthcare stocks trade at a discount of 28% to global equity - a level only seen twice in the last 30 years. In both cases, the sector gained more than 20% in the next 12 months. There are many ways to get exposure in the AI field without having to pay a fortune. AI power demand highlights the need for investment in grid infrastructure and clean energy, including utility companies that power data centres. Both clean energy stocks as well as listed infrastructure companies trade at a discount compared to the market. AI does not have to be costly. AI could continue to grow in 2026, especially if efficiency gains begin to be more evident. High valuations could keep the markets on edge. Investors who want to reduce their risk exposure have many options. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X.
Brazil Senator Bolsonaro pledges to moderate father’s legacy in Presidential run
Senator Flavio Blsonaro is the son of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro. He plans to run for president next year in order to moderate his family's legacy and deliver?smaller government?, tax cuts, and privatizations.
In his first international interview since announcing his presidential ambitions earlier this month, the Senator said that he planned to travel abroad next January. The senator may visit the United States as well as Argentina, Chile and Israel. He could also travel to Europe, the Middle East, Europe, and the Middle East.
He was elected to Brazil's Senate on the conservative wave which brought his father Bolsonaro to the presidency. He vowed to continue the reforms of the older Bolsonaro while distancing him from the right-wing cultural wars.
"I think of myself as a more moderate Bolsonaro," Bolsonaro said in an interview on Friday afternoon from his Brasilia offices, which were decorated with miniaturized versions of his father, Donald Trump, and the U.S. president. "I have always been more moderate and measured."
A?VACCINATED BOLSONARO After winning the endorsement of father, who is now serving a sentence of 27 years for a failed plot to overthrow the government, Senator Bolsonaro has been pitching himself as a conservative without baggage when it comes to topics like COVID-19 vaccinations.
"I'm a Bolsonaro that got vaccinated." "I took two doses AstraZeneca and my father did not want to," he said. The news of Bolsonaro Junior's candidacy in the financial markets this month was a shock. Investors bet that the former president would support a more experienced candidate, such as his former Infrastructure Minister, Tarcisio de Freitas of Sao Paulo, in order to prevent a fourth term for leftist President Luiz nacio Lula da Silva.
The Evangelical Firebrand Pastor Silas Malafaia has cast doubts on his father's "political muscles."
The senator, who acknowledged the skepticism of some political allies but insisted that he could unite the right to deliver a bold, pro-market agenda by prioritizing fiscal balance, reduced spending on the public sector, modernization and the State, and an obsession for lower taxes. Recent polls have him in the lead among a large group of right-wing candidates for president, but he trails Lula by a significant margin in a possible runoff.
LEANER STATES AND PRIVATIZATIONS Bolsonaro's economic vision includes cutting taxes, modernizing state and privatizations in order to energize Latin America’s largest economy. This could include the debt laden Brazilian Postal Service.
He also suggested that Petrobras, the state-run oil firm, should be examined more closely to see if it could divest assets or streamline its operations as his father did.
He said that the oil company was a conglomerate. "We have to find out what works, what should be continued and what does not work."
Senator said that he saw also room to shake up Brazil's aviation market by introducing new competition and improving services and prices.
"Today, you have only a few airlines in Brazil," he said. He said that his brother Eduardo Bolsonaro is organizing his travels abroad next month. Eduardo Bolsonaro lost his position as a federal legislator after moving to the United States in order to push for a response to his father’s trial.
It was unclear to the senator if he will meet with senior U.S. government officials during his trip. He would still like to meet Trump and invite him to January 2027's inauguration, if Trump wins the election in October. Reporting by Luciana Magnhaes Editing and reporting by Manuela Andreoni Brad Haynes, Franklin Paul
(source: Reuters)