Latest News

Alaska Air releases cautious forecast regarding fuel costs and economic risks

Alaska Airlines forecast on Thursday a larger-than-expected loss for the first quarter and a profit outlook for the full year that was below Wall Street expectations, citing seasonality and fuel price volatility.

According to LSEG data, the Seattle-based carrier 'expects' a profit per share of between $3.50 and $6.50. The midpoint is below the average analyst expectation of $5.54. Alaska anticipates a loss per share of between 50 cents and $1.50 for the first quarter. This is compared to Wall Street's expectation of a loss of 64 cents.

Shane Tackett, Alaska's Chief Finance Officer, said in an interview with that the airline has adopted a more conservative stance on?guidance following last year's volatility. Airlines were hit by a sharp decline in demand after sweeping U.S. Tariffs and the longest U.S. In an interview with, Alaska's Chief Financial Officer Shane Tackett said the airline is taking a more conservative approach to?guidance after last year's volatility. Airlines were hit by a sharp drop in demand following sweeping U.S. tariffs and the longest?U.S.

These factors also affected the full-year predictions of Delta Air Lines, and United Airlines. Both came in below analyst expectations.

He said that if things stayed the same for the entire year, we would be able to achieve the highest end of the range. It doesn't need to get better. It only needs to keep its current momentum."

DEMAND REBOUNDS BUT FUEL? AND TIMING BITE

Tackett stated that Alaska has begun to regain demand lost last year during the abrupt booking slowdown. He estimated this loss at about $500 million.

He said that the demand has increased sharply from early January. The yields are above those of last year, and corporate bookings have risen by 20% this quarter compared to last year across all sectors, including manufacturing, technology and finance.

He said that loyalty revenue has also increased. He added that the revenue from main-cabins, which was behind industrywide growth last year, will be positive later this quarter.

Tackett stated that travelers with the means of flying are booking their trips.

Alaska's performance will be affected in the current quarter because much of its?first-quarter itinerary was booked before the demand increased in early January. Tackett estimates that the airline has left $50 to $100 million in potential revenue on its table.

He said that a month earlier, when we booked the first quarter, "the demand was not as strong as it is now."

The company is also particularly vulnerable to West Coast fuel refining margins. Tackett stated that a 10-cent change in fuel prices could translate to a 75 cent swing in the airline's earnings per share.

Its outlook reflects the airline's historically weak first quarter. This is now compounded with Hawaiian Airlines' similar seasonal profile, as both carriers continue to integrate their networks.

Alaska has also been absorbing increased labor and real estate costs since last year.

Analysts had expected 12 cents per share. Its earnings for the fourth quarter came in at 43. Reporting by Rajesh Kumar Singh from Chicago and Shivansh Twary from Bengaluru, with editing by Diane Craft

(source: Reuters)