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Maguire: Europe's gas storage is under scrutiny after Qatar stops LNG flow
After Qatar, the world's third largest LNG producer, halted its LNG exports to Europe, the historically low gas inventories in Europe could become a major liability. Gas storage operators in Europe have been prompted to reduce their stockpiles this winter due to a combination of high natural gas prices and winter temperatures above normal, as well as new storage rules. The prospect of record exports of LNG from countries like the United States and Qatar also raised expectations that the international gas market would be brimming over with gas in 2026. After drone attacks by Iran this weekend on Qatar's main LNG facility, the narrative of LNG abundance is now being replaced with expectations of shipping delays and sharply increased prices. Price Panic On Monday, benchmark wholesale natural gas prices in Europe increased by more than 30% compared to last week's end as market participants scrambled for ways to reflect the impact of Qatar's loss of supply. According to Kpler's analysis, Europe will only receive?7% LNG from Qatar by 2025. However, any prolonged Qatar LNG shutdown would likely have a knock-on effect on all LNG trade, particularly to the world's largest buyers in Asia. Qatar was the fourth largest LNG purchaser in India, and China's number one LNG buyer by 2025. China, India and South Korea are likely to increase their order interest to other vendors to plug any possible shortfalls resulting from the Qatar shut downs. This will lead to a tighter supply of LNG to all destinations. EUROPE'S FEATURE Although the exact timeline for Qatar's outages is still unclear, gas storage and consumers across Europe need to quickly decide what they can do to avoid further gas depletion. They also must be careful not get caught in a panic buying spree that could drive global LNG prices higher. Gas inventories are already at record lows or multi-year lows. Many of Europe's largest gas consumers will be forced to increase their gas purchases even if prices continue to rise. LSEG data shows that natural gas inventories started March in Germany – Europe's biggest gas consumer – at just 27% capacity. This compares to an average 64% capacity since 2023 for this time of the year. Gas stocks?in The Netherlands, home to Europe's largest gas trading hub, are around 10% capacity compared to 48% on average in early March. Italy, Europe's 2nd largest gas consumer, has inventories of gas at about 50% capacity. This is better than many northern counterparts but still lower than the average of 60% in early March. Gas stocks in Europe are around 30% full, compared to 54% for early March. This means that almost all of the major gas consumers are being pushed to replenish their stocks, despite the?increased global competition and the already rising prices. The author is a columnist at. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks.
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Tax refund seekers flock to an unknown US court with experience in big cases
Importers are rushing to a U.S. trade court that is little known to get their share of the more than $130 billion of tariff refunds. The court must now decide how to handle what will be an explosion in cases. According to court records, multinationals like FedEx,?L'Oreal, and hundreds of smaller firms have filed around 2,050?lawsuits with the U.S. Court of International Trade, Manhattan, seeking refunds on?tariffs? imposed by President Donald Trump last year. These cases may be just the tip of the iceberg. The tariffs, which were declared illegal by the Supreme Court in February 2018, were levied against more than 300,000. According to data from the court, this represents a significant increase compared to 2024 when there were only 252 new cases filed. The Supreme Court didn't address refunds. That was left to the customs officials and eight active judges of the Trade Court, which usually handles disputes about anti-dumping measures, import classifications and everything from window shades and pig fat. The Supreme Court cases that were brought by the toy company Learning Resources and spirits importer VOS Selections, as well as other importers are now at the trade court. In a court filing dated February 24, lawyers for five plaintiffs said that their cases?should be used as test cases in order to determine the method of calculating and issuing refunds. Other cases will be put on hold in the interim. Some people don't want to wait. The vast majority of companies who paid tariffs are smaller importers. They want to avoid the legal process, which could cost them thousands of dollars. Customs and Border Protection is hoping to establish a simple and low-cost refund process, including a dedicated website for entering basic information in order to generate a reimbursement. Lawyers for the CBP said that importers could be required to follow its administrative process, which includes filing protests. To complicate the process, refunds for tariffs that were paid in 2025 could be treated differently from tariffs that were paid more recently. John Peterson is a trade attorney who has filed claims in the current wave tariff-refund cases. He calls it "the mega question." CBP has not responded to a comment request. SIMILAR APPROACH The importers' attorneys reminded the Trade Court in their filing of February 24, that they have experience organizing thousands refund lawsuits. After a U.S. Supreme Court ruling in 1998 that invalidated a tax collected by exporters over a period of 11 years, a wave of refund litigation akin to current claims for tariff reimbursements began. The court's filing stated that "this court used a similar approach in relation to the challenges of the Harbor Maintenance Fee." Instead of overseeing?thousands cases simultaneously, this trade court paused lawsuits and established a steering panel of plaintiffs' attorneys who specialize in trade. They then oversaw one case which proceeded. The test case was used for litigating questions like interest on refunds, and deadlines for suing. The test case was used to determine the rules for all lawsuits. In less than six months, after the Supreme Court had struck down the tax, the court approved the refund process. The court required that each claimant?sue separately and send a 'claim form' to CBP. The court could review the claim if the CBP and importer disagreed or if legal questions arose. In just over two-and-a half years after the Supreme Court's ruling that the harbor tax was invalid, $730 million had been paid to as many as 100,000 claimants. The legal team of VOS Selections, as well as the four other plaintiffs involved in the current lawsuit, asked the trade court to follow this model. They wanted their cases to be heard to create a refund system that would apply to all. The harbor-tax litigation is a good framework but nothing can compare to the sheer volume of tariff payments which need to be unwound. According to a court filing, as of December 10, illegal tariffs had been collected on approximately 34 million shipments. Daniel Pickard is a trade lawyer who hasn't filed any tariff-refund claims. You've got think there will be more litigation until this is over. (Reporting from Tom Hals, Wilmington, Delaware; and David Thomas, Chicago; Additional reporting, Mike Scarcella, Editing, Noeleen Walder Amy Stevens, Ethan Smith
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China will build 15 ultra-high voltage lines in the next five years
The 'State Grid' announced a plan to build 15 more 'ultra-high-voltage transmission lines in China between 2026 and 2030. Grid operator: The new lines will allow for around 200 gigawatts-hours of renewable energy to be connected each year to the grid and increase China's cross province electricity transmission capacity by 35%. China's energy regulator is targeting the long-distance transmission lines, which span thousands of kilometers from the west to the east of the country, in its next five-year plan period to increase the uptake of renewable energy and reduce curtailment. According to China's state-run People's Daily, 45 UHV lines were in operation as of October. State Grid?also stated on Tuesday that?wind?and?solar generation will make up at least 30% of its 'power mix' by 2030. Analysts have said that China needs to reach 40% renewable energy by 2030 in order to meet its carbon neutrality goal by 2060. (Reporting and Editing by Louise Heavens, Colleen Waye)
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Qatar's production of LNG has been halted due to the war in Iran, and Asia is scrambling for LNG.
India rationed natural gas Tuesday, while other countries in Asia looked for supplies on the spot market, activated their emergency plans, and prepared to increase production. The conflict?in the?Middle East curtailed shipping, and Qatari output was halted. Officials and executives from Japan, Taiwan and Bangladesh, as well as Pakistan, said that they didn't expect any immediate effects, since some of the cargoes expected this month have already arrived. However, they will diversify their sources and purchase LNG on the spot market, if the conflict continues. More than 80% (or more) of Qatar's LNG shipments are to Asia. Qatar is the No. According to Kpler's data, the United States is the world's No. 2 producer of LNG. Gas firms in India reduced their supplies on Tuesday, anticipating a tighter Middle East supply after Qatar stopped production. Taiwan's economy ministry announced on Tuesday that the island nation, which gets more than 40% its electricity from LNG, and imports about a third from Qatar, would buy more LNG from the U.S., and might coordinate with South Korea or Japan if there is a prolonged shipping blockade. Taiwan Premier Cho Jungtai stated that "we will continue a moving in the direction we've been pursuing for years: obtaining enough energy through diversified market," adding that a "emergency reaction mechanism"?had already been activated to address the Qatari disruption of supply. Japan, the No. The world's No. 2 LNG importer, which sources 4% from Qatar, can tap the spot market, or ask utilities to buy gas from each other, if necessary, said its trade minister. SOUTH ASIAN LNG SUPPLY Industry officials in Bangladesh and Pakistan compared the situation with the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine 2022, where LNG prices spiked while supply was disrupted causing extended power outages. Experts in the industry said that while Pakistan's solar power will prevent daytime power outages, Bangladesh may face shortages, and may have to import more coal and power from India. Senior officials at the state-run Petrobangla have said that a prolonged interruption would put pressure on power generation?and industrial production as summer approaches. The official stated that four of the nine cargoes scheduled for March by Bangladesh from Qatar have already crossed 'the Strait of Hormuz.' Dhaka could also look to purchase spot cargoes. The executive stated that the real question was where will prices go. "Prices may rise by a multiple and we simply cannot afford it." The benchmark Asian LNG price rose by as much as 40% on Monday while the benchmark European wholesale gas prices increased between 35% and 40%. Industry officials say that Pakistan, which imports almost all its LNG from Qatar and plans to increase its domestic natural gas production, will reduce the regasification rate at its terminals. Delivery delays may help Pakistan. A glut of LNG has forced the local gas extraction companies in Pakistan to reduce their output, and depleted its forex reserves.
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Sources: Fujairah bunker price surge due to conflict in the Middle East will drive demand elsewhere
The refuelling of ships at Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates has slowed down after the U.S. Iran conflict disrupted fuel shipments. This led to a spike in prices, and could have shifted demand from Fujairah to other ports, including Singapore. After some vessels were struck, transit through the Strait of Hormuz, between Iran and Oman has come to a halt. This area carries one-fifth of the world's oil consumption, as well as a large quantity of liquefied gas. Dubai-based sources said that while bunkering is continuing at the port, sales have largely stopped after marine fuel prices soared on Monday due to concerns about a prolonged disruption in supply. Fujairah is located on the east coast of United Arab Emirates, near the Strait of Hormuz. Sources said that low-sulphur marine fuel offers rose from $10 to $15 per metric ton to more than $30 last week. High-sulphur fuel prices shifted from discounts to premiums. DEMAND TO FIRM in other HUBS If tankers stay away from the Middle East, or vessels are left stranded, traders predict that demand will shift to other hubs, such as Asia, Rotterdam and the Mediterranean. Suppliers and traders said that spot demand for fuel at the world's largest port of bunkering, Singapore, was already high late Monday night as shipowners rushed to get their fuel in before prices rose further. One of them said that if the conflict continues, the demand will increase and premiums are sure to follow due to the disruption in the supply. Sources declined to name themselves as they weren't authorised to speak to the media. Brent crude futures spiked, causing fuel prices and margins to rise sharply in Asia on Monday. "Current shipper precaution means a gridlock for now on Strait of Hormuz?transited volumes, and prolonged?disruptions? will curtail bunker supply in Singapore," said Royston Huan. He is a senior oil product analyst at the consultancy Energy Aspects.
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Netanyahu: US-Israeli War on Iran is not going to Take Years
Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli Prime Minister, said that the war against Iran "would not take years" as the conflict escalated with Israel attacking again the Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran hitting Gulf States which host U.S. bases. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, launched strikes against Iran with Israel on Sunday. He initially predicted that war would last between four and five weeks. But he has now sought to justify an open-ended, broad war. Iran launched drone and missile strikes on not only Israel and U.S. forces, but also against a number of countries in the region who are allied with the U.S. This paralyzed vital energy shipments out of the Gulf, along with hundreds busy short-and long-haul flights routes. ISRAEL SPEAKS ABOUT WAR LASTING 'WEEKS" Netanyahu rejected the notion that the conflict would last years, as in previous wars. "I said that it could be swift and decisive. It will not take many years, even though it may take some time. Netanyahu told Fox News' "Hannity' program on Monday that it was not an endless conflict. Israeli Lieutenant Colonel Nadav Shishani told an online briefing the length of the campaign could vary depending on the developments. He added: "We prepared a general scope for weeks." Shoshani responded that it was unlikely Israel would deploy ground forces in Iran. As air defences intercepted Iranian missiles, explosions rocked buildings in Tel Aviv. Israel has attacked the Tehran complex for Iran's state-run broadcaster IRIB and Hezbollah militants in Lebanon. Israeli officials said they had sent additional troops to southern Lebanon, and placed them near the border in order to provide "forward defense". Israel maintained ground troops in Lebanon after its November 2024 truce with Hezbollah. Hezbollah is a Shiite militia which serves as an Iranian proxy. Saudi Arabia's Defence Ministry reported that two drones from Iran struck the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh early on Tuesday morning, causing some minor damage and a small fire. At least eight other drones were intercepted by the Saudi Arabian Defence Ministry before they reached the city. Since the U.S., Israel and Iran launched the war on Saturday by shooting down the Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the air, hundreds of civilians were killed across the globe, including in Iran, Israel, Lebanon, and other countries. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran, which reports directly to the Supreme Leader of the country, has said that its navy destroyed the main command and headquarters of an American air base in Bahrain as part of "Operation Promise of the Truth 4". The base in Sheikh Isa was the target of 20 drones, three missiles and three rockets. The U.S. State Department or the White House didn't immediately respond to requests for comment. U.S. Secretary Marco Rubio warned Monday that the "hardest hits" from the U.S. Military are still to come. Rubio was asked how long the United States would be in Iran. He replied: "We think that the goals we set for this mission - the destruction of the (Iran) ballistic missile capability, both in terms of launch capabilities and manufacturing - can be achieved even without ground forces. Right now, we're not positioned for ground forces. The president isn't going to rule anything out, but he has options. THOUSANDS of Gulf Flights Canceled ISNA reported that a member of Iran's Assembly of Experts - the body charged with selecting a new Supreme leader - said it "won't be long" before Khamenei is replaced. The U.S. Military said that it has destroyed 11 Iranian vessels and struck over 1,250 Iranian targets. Six U.S. military personnel were killed in Iran's weekend retaliatory attack on Kuwait. Oil prices have soared as a result of the conflict, which has caused global air travel to be in chaos. One-fifth of all oil traded around the globe passes through the Strait of Hormuz. The major Gulf hubs, such as the busiest airport in the world, Dubai, which handles more than 1,000 flights per day, were closed for a 4th day. This has left tens and thousands of passengers stranded. Asian airline shares continued to lose money, as carriers closely monitored fuel price spikes. Bookings are also surging due to passengers switching from Middle Eastern airlines. According to industry sources and shipping data, the cost of supertankers in the Middle East has reached all-time levels after Iran targeted ships that passed through the Strait of Hormuz. WAR BREWS UP IN LEBANON The U.S. State Department has ordered all non-emergency U.S. Government personnel and their families to leave Bahrain, Iraq, and Jordan. Trump said that the U.S. was facing an imminent threat by Iran, which justified the war. He did not provide any specifics though and some U.S. legislators said he showed no evidence. Rubio said that the U.S. acted preemptively, knowing of Israel's plans to attack Iran. He also knew Tehran would react and put U.S. base at risk. Trump said on Monday that his order to attack was to stop Tehran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs, which he claimed were growing rapidly. An independent policy institute reported on Monday that commercial satellite imagery appears to have captured the first known strike on a nuclear site in Iran since the beginning of the war. Iran denied that it was seeking nuclear weapons, and said the U.S.-Israeli assault had been unprovoked. This occurred as Tehran and Washington?were negotiating a nuclear agreement. Trump rescinded a previous international agreement that curbed Iran's nuclear programme during his first term, in 2018, three years after the agreement was signed. Trump's attack on Iran is the largest U.S. Foreign Policy gamble in decades, and a major risk for his Republican Party during this year's Midterm Elections. In a weekend/Ipsos survey, only one out of four Americans supported an attack on Iran. Russia, China, and Turkey all condemned the war. Britain, a close ally of Washington, reluctantly permitted U.S. forces use British bases to conduct what they call "defensive" attacks on Iranian weapons.
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Drone strikes fuel tank in Oman's Duqm Port
The state news agency, citing a source in the security sector, reported that a fuel tank was damaged at 'Oman's Duqm Commercial Port on Tuesday. This is the fourth day since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran. Iran has responded with attacks on neighbouring countries. The attack came a day after Qatar stopped?its production?of liquefied... natural gas, which accounts for about a fifth?of global supply. Saudi Arabia also suspended production at its biggest domestic refinery. Iran has been targeting infrastructure in recent days, including energy facilities, ports, and airports. Before the attack on Iran, Oman was acting as a mediator in talks between Iran and the U.S. about Tehran's nuclear program. Oman's news agency said that the damage caused in Duqm had been contained, and there were no injuries. Duqm was also targeted by drones Sunday, injuring a worker. On Saturday, when the U.S. Israel and the U.S. launched their attack. The Abu Dhabi Government's Media Office said that on Monday, a fire broke out after a drone targeted the Musaffah Fuel?tank Terminal without affecting its operations. ADNOC, the state-owned oil giant of Abu Dhabi, operates a facility in Musaffah where fuels are transported via trucks and a pipeline network covering 1,600 kilometers (994 miles).
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MOL Hungary says it received Ukrainian oil through Druzhba after the attack
Hungary's MOL imported 35,000 tons (of Ukrainian crude) via the Druzhba Pipeline at Kyiv’s request, according to executive chairman Zsolt Hernadi of commercial television station ATV. This was after a fire and strike near the Druzhba Pipeline in late January. Ukrainian officials in the industry did not respond immediately to a comment request. Since January 27, oil shipments through the pipeline to Hungary and Slovakia, the only European Union nations still importing Russian crude, have been suspended following what Kyiv claims was a Russian assault on pumping stations in western Ukraine. Hungary and Slovakia claim that Ukraine has blocked the use of the pipeline for political reasons. This prompted Budapest to block any new EU sanctions against Russia. Kyiv claims that repairs will take time. According to a report last week, which cited 'three industry sources who are familiar with the issue, before the Druzhba pipe was damaged, it exported some Ukrainian oil, and much larger volumes of Russian crude. Hernadi stated that MOL believes the pipeline itself did not suffer any damage. "When the fire started...from other stores they began to pump Ukrainian crude in the pipeline. "Our Ukrainian colleagues asked us to take this oil over in order to prevent further escalation of the fire and problem," Hernadi stated late on Monday. "And we took 35, 000 tons of Ukrainian crude that?arrived over the Druzhba pipe in 2-3 days." The Ukrainian embassy in Budapest said in a statement issued late Monday night that the "possibility and timing of repairs on the pipeline depend solely on security circumstances" because Russia continues its attacks. Hernadi stated that the capacity of the Adriatic Pipeline, an alternative to Druzhba for bringing up seaborne oil shipments from Croatia, will be tested "repeatedly" this year. Hernadi stated that MOL's Hungarian main refinery is still operating about 40% below its capacity as a result of a fire in the previous year. This will continue until August.
After US and Israel attack Iran, airlines cancel flights
The global air travel industry is still severely affected by the Iran war, which forced the closures of major Middle Eastern hubs such as Dubai, Doha, and Abu?Dhabi. This left tens and thousands of passengers stranded and thousands of flights disrupted.
The following is a list of the most recent flights by airline, alphabetically:
AEGEAN AIRLINES
The largest airline in Greece suspended all flights from and to Tel Aviv, Beirut and Erbil until the early morning arrivals on March 10. The airline cancelled its flights from and to Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Riyadh/Jeddah up until the evening arrivals on March 6, and from Riyadh/Jeddah till the early morning arrivals on March 7.
AIR BALTIC
AirBaltic, a Latvian airline, said that all flights from and to Tel Aviv were cancelled until March 9. AirBaltic, a Latvian airline, said that all flights to and out of Tel Aviv have been cancelled until March 9.
AIR CANADA
The Canadian carrier has suspended all flights to and from Dubai, Tel Aviv and other destinations until March 22, and will resume them on March 23,
AIR EUROPA
All flights from Spain to Tel Aviv have been cancelled until March 9.
AIR FRANCE KLM
Air France has cancelled flights from and to Tel Aviv, Beirut and Dubai until March 5.
KLM has suspended its flights from and to Dubai, Riyadh, and Dammam until March 9, and its flights from and to Tel?Aviv for the rest of winter.
AIR INDIA
The airline has extended the temporary suspension on all flights to and out of the Middle East until March 3, 2019.
BLUEBIRD AERWAYS
The Greek airline announced that it has canceled all flights to Israel and back until March 8th.
BRITISH AIRWAYS
British Airways, owned by IAG, has cancelled flights from Amman to Abu Dhabi, Bahrain and Dubai as well as Doha, Tel Aviv and Doha-Doha.
CATHAY PACIFIC AIRWAYS
Hong Kong Airlines said that it had cancelled all flights from and to Dubai, and also from and to Riyadh until March 14.
The U.S. airline said that it had cancelled flights between New York-JFK and Tel Aviv (TLV), through March 8, and from TLV back to JFK, through March 9.
EL AL ISRAEL AIRLINES
EL?AL &?Sundor cancelled flights to and out of Israel until 2:00 am on March?5.
EMIRATES
Emirates announced that it would begin operating a small number of flights on March 2nd evening. All other flights remain suspended until further notice.
ETIHAD AERWAYS
The airline said that it had suspended all flights from and to its Abu Dhabi hub up until 10:00 GMT on March 4, 2019.
FINNAIR
The Finnish airline said that it cancelled Doha flights up until March 10, and Dubai flights up until March 28. It also avoided the airspaces of Iraq, Iran and Syria.
INDIGO
IndiGo, India’s largest airline, announced that it has suspended all flights using Middle Eastern airspace at least until March 2. The airline cancelled several flights up until March 5.
ITA AIRWAYS
ITA Airways suspended all flights to and out of Tel Aviv, and will not be using the airspace in Israel, Lebanon and Jordan, Iraq, and Iran after March 8. The cancellations of flights to and from Dubai were extended until March 4th. Riyadh and flights to/from Riyadh also had their flights canceled between March 2 - 4.
JAPAN AIRLINES
Japan Airlines has suspended all Tokyo-Doha flights from February 28 until March 7, as well as Doha-Tokyo flights on March 8.
LOT POLISH AERLINES
LOT Polish Airlines announced that all flights from and to Tel Aviv have been cancelled until March 18. The Polish airline has also cancelled flights from Riyadh and Dubai until 8 March.
LUFTHANSA
German Airlines has suspended flights?to and from Tel Aviv and Beirut until 8 March, and flights from and to Dubai until 4 March.
MALAYSIA AIRLINES
Malaysian Airlines has suspended all flights to and from Doha and Jeddah until March 4.
NORWEGIAN AIR
The Nordic airline has suspended all flights from and to Dubai until March 10. The company stated that it will review its decision each week.
PEGASUS
Turkish Airlines has cancelled all flights to Iran, Jordan, Iraq and Jordan until March 6, and their flights to Iran until march 12.
QATAR AIRWAYS
The airline has suspended all flights to and out of Doha because the Qatari airspace is closed.
SINGAPORE Airlines
Singapore Airlines said it had cancelled all flights from and to Dubai until March 7. Scoot, its low-cost airline, cancelled flights from and to Jeddah until March 7.
Romania's national carrier announced that all flights from and to Tel Aviv, Beirut and Amman had been suspended until March 2. The flight schedule for March 3 is still being reviewed.
TURKISH AIRLINES
Some flights to and from Bahrain and Dammam have been cancelled.
TUS AIRWAYS
All flights from and to Israel were cancelled by the Cypriot airline until March 8, 2019.
VIRGIN ATLANTIC
The UK airline cancelled all flights from and to Riyadh, Dubai and London until March 2, and the Dubai-London flight that was scheduled for March 3.
WIZZ AIR
The airline has halted all flights to and from Israel as well as Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Amman until March 7. (Compiled by Josephine Mason and Jamie Freed; reporting by bureaus. Editing by Barbara Lewis and Louise Heavens. Christian Schmollinger, Matt Scuffham, and Matt Scuffham.
(source: Reuters)