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Low European gas reserves could cause a spike in global LNG prices this winter

Executives at an industry conference this week said that global LNG prices may rise as Europe has its lowest stock levels in years, and North Asian buyers face more competition because the Strait o f?Hormuz is still closed.

Gastech analysts and industry executives in Bangkok said that Europe will be more vulnerable this winter than usual due to lower storage levels than last year.

Shell estimates that the war against Iran has also prevented Qatar and the United Arab Emirates to ship liquefied gas through the Strait of Hormuz. This has led to a 36 million metric ton loss of supply in this year.

Cederic Cremers, Shell's president of Integrated Gas, said: "Right Now we are at a historically-low storage?level as we head into the end fall."

European Union gas storage is currently at 67% capacity, which is a record low and well below the EU's target of 80% by December. Equinor executives said that gas stocks may reach 75% by November 1.

Due to the lack of financial incentives and a 'backwardated'?market where immediate prices are higher than future months, European countries didn't rush to stockpile during summer in order to meet winter demand.

"Unfortunately, we seem to be in a very tough position as we enter this winter," said Cheniere Energy's Chief Commercial Officer Anatol Feygin.

It's no secret that the inventory levels are low. The prompt is dependent on the weather.

SEFE, the German state-owned energy company, said that it has already begun increasing its natural gas stockpiles as Europe enters winter with low inventories.

Prices could rise by a third

Asia's spot price this year Industry executives say that prices have nearly tripled, to around $30 per million British Thermal Units, reducing demand. This is down from the pre-war price range of $10/mmBtu.

Simon Flowers, Wood Mackenzie's chairman, said that if we have a very cold winter, there will be very little supply left. This would really test the market.

Flowers added that if it is a colder than usual winter, the price could reach $40/mmBtu. This would be equivalent to $240 for a barrel of Brent.

He said that if it is warm, prices will be higher, but not much more than today.

Equinor Senior Vice President of Marketing and Supply Helle Ostgaard Kristiansen said that a cold winter across Europe and Asia, and the continued disruption to Hormuz's LNG shipments will likely force European buyers to compete against Asia for US supplies.

ExxonMobil's Vice President of Global LNG Marketing, Andrew Barry, explained that the 45-day trip from the U.S.A. to North Asia could be a problem for Asian buyers who want to quickly deploy their ships to meet demand.

Barry stated that "this winter can be challenging for sure."

Shell's Cremers stated: "We all can hope for a mild winter." "I think that, based on what we have seen in the past few years, it is likely that there will be a greater need to restock before winter and then afterward as well."

(source: Reuters)