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TSX futures fall as Middle East conflict fuels inflation fears
Futures that track Canada's resource heavy benchmark index edged down?on Friday as an increase in oil prices following the Middle East conflict stoked fears of a rise in inflation. As of 5:44 a.m., March futures?on??the S&P/TSX Composite index?were down 0.24%. ET. After the disruption of shipping and energy exports via the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices continued to rise and are on course for their biggest weekly increase since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine? in February 2022. The U.S. House of Representatives rejected a measure on Thursday that was intended to stop President Donald Trump's Iran war, which began its seventh day on Friday. Brent crude futures rose 2.3% and 4.3%, respectively. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose by 2.3% and 4.1% respectively. The U.S. Dollar Index is on course for its biggest weekly gain since September 20,24. Gold spot was on track for its largest weekly drop in nine years, despite the fact that demand for this safe-haven asset drove prices up on Friday. Silver and copper both gained. Toronto's benchmark index fell to a two-week low Thursday due to a fall in miners' stocks. South Bow, a pipeline operator, announced that it has reactivated parts of the Keystone XL 'pipeline. This could increase Canada's crude oil exports to the U.S. by more than 12%. Click on the?CODES to get Canadian?Markets News: TSX Market Report Canadian Dollar and Bond Report Global Stocks Poll for Canada Canadian Markets Directory (Reporting and Editing by Diti Pjara; Utkarsh T. Hathi)
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As the Iran conflict intensifies, maritime insurance premiums are on the rise
As the Gulf conflict intensifies, premiums on maritime insurance for war coverage have risen -- some by more than 1,000% -- driving up the price of transporting energy along a crucial maritime corridor. The conflict sparked Saturday by the Israeli-U.S. strikes on?Tehran, a major shipping chokepoint, has paralyzed all traffic through Strait of Hormuz. Iran said on Monday that it would shoot at 'any ship' trying to pass. At least nine vessels in the area have been damaged since the conflict began. Ship owners can claim for any damage their vessel or cargo may suffer due to conflict or terrorism. Most policies are annual. However, some may cover only one-off trips through dangerous waters, such as war zones. Analysts are concerned that if the war continues, it could cause inflation. The hull war market reacted 'immediately' due to the possibility of large losses, especially if several vessels were hit at the same time. Stephen Rudman is the head of marine in Asia for global insurance broker Aon. He added that, if the situation worsens, "further rate adjustments are likely." He said that the premiums charged for vessels traveling through high-risk waterways are increasing rapidly and could continue to fluctuate over the next few months. He said that the premiums for war risks on cargo are also rising, and quotes are being re-evaluated 'voyage by voyage, especially in energy and bulk commodity trading. Jefferies analysts estimated that the potential losses to industry from at least seven vessels damaged at the time their note was published, on March 5, could be up to $1.75billion. The brokerage said that with?most tankers worth between $200 million to $300 million the new insurance rate would imply an hull war-risk premium of around $7.5 million. This is up from a premium of around 0.25% or $625,000 before the conflict began. Angus Blayney is the marine divisional 'director' at Gallagher. A major insurance broker. He said that rates are increasing and changing daily, depending on vessel types and circumstances. However, he didn't provide any specific figures. He also said that coverage is still available. The type of vessel, its ownership, and its flag are all important. Underwriters may view flagged vessels as a higher risk. However, in actuality, attacks on flagged ships are indiscriminate. AREA OF CONCENTRATED RISK Data from analytics company Vortexa revealed that, on average, more than 20 million barrels per day of crude oil, condensate, and fuels were transported through the Strait in 2017. A fifth of all oil consumed in the world passes through the Strait. Sheila Cameron, CEO of the Lloyd's Market Association, said that there are still approximately 1,000 vessels in the Persian/Arabian Gulf, with an aggregate hull worth exceeding $25 billion. Cameron said that "currently, insurance remains in place" for the vast majority. According to a report on Wednesday, at least 200 ships were still anchored in open water?off of the coasts of major Gulf producers. Morningstar DBRS stated in a report earlier this month, that reinsurers could respond by increasing the loss 'level' at which they become liable, or reducing their capacity. This would "leave primary underwriters with more risk, and possibly pressure solvency levels." The report added that "supply chains will be stressed if goods are rerouted through the Cape of Good Hope, or via overland routes. This will increase transit times and costs." The Administration is seeking solutions The Trump administration is looking for ways to lower oil prices through reactivating shipping routes. On Tuesday, Donald Trump announced that the U.S. Navy would begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. He also said he had instructed the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (IDFC) to provide financial guarantees and political risk insurance for maritime trade within the Gulf. The company said on Wednesday that he also met with Marsh, a global insurance broker to discuss the issue. Lloyd's also stated that the company was working with Development Finance Corporation, as well as other stakeholders, to find solutions. Analysts said that it is unclear as to how the administration plans to intervene, and if any scheme will apply to all ships and cargo. They expect that, in the absence of a viable alternative, many shipowners will reinstate their old cover at a much higher rate and absorb any costs. It's like insurance a burning building, Dr Michel Leonard, Chief economist and data scientist of Insurance Information Institute said.
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Indian industries will face LNG shortages as Middle East conflict disrupts Gulf shipments
The U.S./Israeli war with Iran has disrupted Middle East fuel supplies, and affected India's Liquefied natural gas (LNG), which it imports from its key supplier Qatar. As India, the fourth largest LNG consumer in the world, reduces its supply, several?Indian?industries?are?being affected. GAIL (India), the Indian gas marketing company would consider reducing supplies to customers of natural gas after Petronet LNG, its long-term supplier, issued a notice of force majeure due to?vessel constraints. ONGC Petro Additions operates its Dahej?gas?cracker? in western India with a "dramatically" reduced capacity due to falling supplies of gas and other feedstock. Adani Total Gas has raised prices on industrial supplies, citing a lower availability of gas due to the conflict in the Middle East. Gujarat Gas, a gas supplier to domestic and industrial customers, has declared a force majeure, limiting gas supply to industries as of Thursday. The lower gas supply has marginally affected production at some Indian fertiliser companies, including Indian Farmers Fertiliser Cooperative Ltd. and Kribhco Fertilizer?Ltd. Gas?supply cutbacks have affected some small steel producers, but leading steelmakers claim they have at least a month's worth of stock before the situation gets worse. Reporting by Sethuraman NR, Neha Arora and Mayank Bhardwaj
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As the Iran conflict intensifies, maritime insurance premiums are on the rise
As the conflict in the 'Gulf escalates, premiums on maritime insurance for war coverage have risen -- some by over 1000% -- causing a dramatic increase in the cost of transporting energy along a vital maritime corridor. The conflict sparked Saturday by Israeli and U.S. airstrikes against Tehran has paralyzed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran said on Monday that it would shoot at any ship that tried to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. At least nine vessels in the area have been damaged since the conflict began. Ship owners can claim for any damage their vessel or cargo may have suffered due to conflict or terrorism. Most policies are annual. However, some may cover a single voyage through dangerous waters or war zones. Analysts are concerned that the continuing conflict, which is not showing signs of ending, could fuel inflation. Stephen Rudman said that the hull war market reacted faster due to the possibility of large losses being incurred if several vessels were hit at the same time. He added that further rate adjustments are likely if the situation worsens. He said that the premiums charged for vessels traveling through high-risk waterways are increasing rapidly and could continue to fluctuate over the next few months. He said that the premiums for war risks on cargo are also rising, and quotes are being reviewed "on a trip-by-trip basis", particularly in energy and bulk commodity trading. Jefferies analysts estimated that the potential losses to industry from seven vessels damaged at the time their note was published, on March 5, may reach up to $1.75billion. The brokerage said that most tankers are valued between $200 and $300 million. A new insurance rate at 3% would mean a war risk premium for the hull of $7.5 million. This is up from?0.25% or $625,000 before the conflict started. Angus Blayney is the marine divisional director of Gallagher. A major insurance broker. He said this week that marine insurance companies in London are still providing coverage, but that rates have increased. Blayney did not provide a specific figure. He added that costs will vary depending upon the type of vessel, cargo, and route. AREA OF CONCENTRATED RISK Data from analytics company Vortexa revealed that, on average, more than 20 million barrels per day of crude oil, condensate, and fuels were transported through the Strait in 2017. A fifth of all oil consumed in the world passes through the Strait. Sheila Cameron, CEO of the Lloyd's Market Association, said that there are still approximately 1,000 vessels in the Persian/Arabian Gulf, including oil and gas tanks, which have a combined hull value in excess of $25 billion. Cameron said that "currently, insurance remains in place" for the vast majority. According to a report on Wednesday, at least 200 ships were still anchored in open water off the coasts of major Gulf producers. Morningstar DBRS stated in a report earlier this month, that reinsurers could respond by increasing the level of loss at which they become liable,?or reducing their capacity. This would "leave primary underwriters with more 'risk, and possibly pressure solvency levels." The report added that "supply chains will be put under stress as goods are rerouted through the Cape of Good Hope and overland routes increasing transit times, costs and transit time." The Administration is seeking solutions Trump's administration is looking for ways to lower oil prices by getting shipping routes moving. On Tuesday, Donald Trump announced that the U.S. Navy would begin escorting tankers through Strait of the Hormuz. He also said he had instructed the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (IDFC) to provide financial guarantees and political risk insurance for maritime trade within the Gulf. The company also said that he met with Marsh, a global insurance broker to discuss the issue. A spokesperson for Lloyd's said that the company is also working with?the Development Finance Corporation? and other relevant stakeholders in order to find solutions. Analysts said that it is unclear how the administration will intervene, and if any scheme will apply to all ships and cargo. They expect that many shipowners will reinstate their old cover and pay the higher rates. It's like insurance a burning building, Dr Michel Leonard, Chief economist and data scientist of Insurance Information Institute said.
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South African miners bid for Manganese Export Terminal concession
African Rainbow Minerals announced on Friday that a consortium of 'South African manganese miner will 'bid for the construction and operation of a 'new export port at Ngqura, in Eastern Cape Province. ARM's unit Assmang, a member in the Manganese Producers Consortium, said that private companies are eager to work with Transnet, the state-owned company, on this project. It is expected to increase the export capacity of manganese by 16 million metric tonne and improve logistics. The MPC plans to bid on the Request for Quotation with Transnet, as a joint venture partner, for the design, construction, and operation of the new Manganese Ore Export Terminal at Ngqura. Transnet said that it would invite bids around April for the Ngqura Manganese Export Terminal. The port and freight rail operator will open a part of its network up to private companies to restore the capacity that has been slashed in recent years. This has slowed down mineral exports. Maryke Burger said that the CEO of ARM’s ferrous division would like to see manganese miner's operate both the rail and port. "An integrated (system) would be optimal." Burger said that we will find out if rails are included in the proposal for a request for quotations. South Africa is the largest producer of manganese in the world, and it is used primarily for steelmaking. The majority of exports are sent to China, which is the world's largest steelmaker. According to the Minerals Council, it is estimated that Africa exported 26.2 million tonnes of manganese to 2025. This was a record after the previous peak of 22.33 million tons in 2024. ARM's Manganese Ore Operations reported a 76% drop in headline earnings. This was due to a 22% decline in the?average price of high-grade ore. In the six-month period ending December 31, the diversified'miner's profits rose 10%, to 1.67 billion rand ($100.81 millions), as higher platinum group metals prices offset lower income from iron ore, manganese and its loss making coal division.
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Source: Orlen, a Polish energy company, receives a force majeure notice from QatarEnergy.
Orlen, the Polish oil and gas company, has received a 'force majeure note' from QatarEnergy stating that two LNG cargo deliveries scheduled to arrive in early April or late April could be canceled or delayed. QatarEnergy declared a force majeure on gas exports Wednesday, amid the U.S. and Israeli war against?Iran. Orlen, in an email statement sent on Friday, said that the suspension of certain?LNG by?QatarEnergy did not threaten the security of Poland's gas supply. He added that imports from Qatar would only account for less than 10% in 2025. "Diversified portfolios and flexible trading tools enable the balancing LNG supplies, as well as the use of other?supply routes that are available on the global market." Orlen said that the LNG delivery due in March from Qatar is also being carried out according to schedule. (Reporting by Marek Strzelecki. (Editing by Jane Merriman, Tomasz Janowowski and Jane Merriman)
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Azerbaijan has announced that it will evacuate its diplomats to Iran in order to ensure their safety
Azerbaijan has evacuated its diplomats to Iran, according to Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov on Friday. This comes a day after Baku claimed that four Iranian drones crossed the border into Azerbaijan and injured four people at Nakhchivan. Bayramov, speaking at a press conference in Baku said that Azerbaijan is evacuating its employees from its embassy in Tehran and consulate in Tabriz. Tabriz is the largest city in Iran's northwestern region, where ethnic Azerbaijanis reside. On the orders of President Ilham Aliyev instructions were given to evacuate our embassy in Tehran, as well as the consulate in Tabriz, from Iran. These instructions are currently being implemented. He said: "We cannot risk the lives of our citizens." Azerbaijan's President Aliyev threatened retaliation after reacting angrily to what he said was an "incursion of Iranian drones" into its "Nakhchivan Exclave" on Thursday. Iran claimed that it did not launch the drones. Azerbaijan and Iran have had tense relationships for a long time. Azerbaijan’s close ties with Israel has enraged?Tehran. Azerbaijan is an Islamic country with a majority Shi'ite faith, but the government there is secular. (Reporting and writing by Nailia bagirova, editing by Andrew Osborn).
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The Kremlin claims that the war in Iran is driving up demand for Russian energy
The Kremlin announced?on Friday?that?the war against Iran has fueled demand for Russian energy. This comes a day after U.S. Treasury granted India a waiver of 30 days to purchase Russian oil that is currently "stuck" at sea. As the conflict entered its seventh?day on Friday, the Strait of Hormuz - a vital shipping?passage - was all but closed, and countries around the globe were cut off from global oil and LNG supplies. Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesperson, told reporters that Russia is a reliable source of oil and natural gas via pipelines as well as in liquefied forms. The war in Iran is causing a dramatic increase in the demand for Russian energy. Peskov, a reporter at the time, said that Russia is a reliable source of both gas and oil. This includes pipeline gas as well as liquefied natural gas. "It is also capable of guaranteeing continuity for all?deliverys' for which contracts were concluded." Peskov refused to reveal possible volumes of Russian crude oil supplied to India after Washington's waiver. This was a result of months of U.S. pressuring New Delhi to not buy Russian oil.
Lufthansa's 2026 forecast is murky because of Middle East tensions, but 2025 results are impressive.
Lufthansa reported better results than expected for its 2025 financial period as it was able to manage costs more effectively and maximize profits through a stricter financial management.
Lufthansa has reported a 2 billion euro adjusted operating profit ($2.32 billion) compared to a projected 1.9 billion euro by an?Lufthansa compiled analyst poll. This is up from the?1.6 billion euro adjusted operating profit in 2024.
The German airline group reported an operating profit margin of 4,9%, up from 4,4% in 2024.
Lufthansa hopes to increase operating margins to 8-10% by 2030, up from a?4.4% level in 2024. However, strikes like the one that occurred on?February 12 have made it difficult for the company to reduce lost profits.
The?outlook was described as'murky' due to the geopolitical uncertainties. It predicted capacity growth of 4% as well as growth in revenue and profit margin. $1 = 0.8610 Euros (Reporting and editing by Miranda Murray).
(source: Reuters)