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Is the Iran War just an energy shock or a turning-point? Russell
Losses in barrels of crude oil and increased prices are already a result of the Iran war. With a U.S. - Iran peace deal expected that will reopen the Strait of Hormuz the reckoning has begun: Was this a watershed or just another blip, we ask? Consider two ?precedents. Volkswagen's "Dieselgate", a scandal involving rigged emission tests in 2015, seemed innocent at first. But it signalled the end of diesel cars for passenger vehicles and the rise in electric vehicles (EVs). The impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was short-lived due to the market's ability reroute the flows and absorb shock. The'market' has'so far acted as a magic wand to deal with the effective closing of the Strait of Hormuz, since the U.S. and Israeli attacks against Iran began on 28 February. Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates have all lost at least 1 billion barrels worth of crude oil. The narrow waterway that separates Iran and Oman also traps up to 20% of the global supply of liquefied gas. The combination of strategic and business inventory releases, as well as a dramatic drop in crude imports from China, the largest crude importer in the world, have helped to keep Brent crude futures below $100 per barrel during the current crisis. One could argue that traders were influenced by President Donald Trump’s social media posts indicating that an agreement would be imminent. The long-awaited agreement began to take shape on Sunday, when the U.S. announced that it had reached an agreement with Iran on a framework which could allow vessels to resume transit. Trump announced on Monday that oil tankers had begun to leave the Strait. The agreement is not yet public, but the fact that tankers will soon be able to enter and exit the waterway with no hindrances raises questions about what comes next. First, the energy markets would receive a temporary sugar rush of relief as trapped tankers in the Gulf leave and deliver their cargoes. The next step would be to try to restore the supply chain and flow of goods to their pre-war level, followed by a longer process to rebuild depleted stocks. The price of crude oil and 'LNG could stay high for longer, as barrels lost are replaced. However, much depends on how quickly Middle East producers can ramp up production and exports. Also, whether the OPEC+ is able to pump the higher volumes they have agreed to produce. CHANGES IN BEHAVIOUR? The bigger question, however, is the impact on long-term. The views of consumers and governments will be crucial, particularly in Asia, which is the fastest growing region, where energy consumption is high. Customers who can change their minds are more likely to switch to hybrid or electric vehicles in order to protect themselves from future price spikes for diesel and gasoline. Australia, which is the largest diesel importer in the world and relies on foreign refineries to meet over 80% its fuel needs, provides an early glimpse of what this could look like. In May, Australian EV sales reached a new record, with a 20% market share. When combined with hybrids, this share increased to 46%. In China, which is the world's largest EV producer, EVs and hybrids will account for more than half of all sales by 2025. This figure rose to 60% this May. The government is also likely to change its policies in favor of renewables and electricty over fossil fuels. Dieselgate has seen the motor fuel lose popularity, particularly in Europe where its share in passenger car sales fell from 52% in 2015, to less than 10% in 2025. Asian countries like Vietnam have already put in place policies that encourage electric scooters and EVs. This momentum will likely grow throughout the region. In Asia, LNG is also a threat as countries weigh up the security risks associated with an imported fossil fuel versus buying solar panels, battery storage, and wind turbines?from China or developing local industries with Chinese support. Coal is one fossil fuel that could emerge as the long-term victor of this crisis. China, India, and Indonesia are all countries with large reserves of domestic fuel. They will continue to use it because they can afford it and have a reliable supply, even though this makes reducing carbon dioxide emissions more difficult. Importing nations may also deem coal as a safer investment, since the major exporters, Indonesia, Australia, and South Africa, have been reliable suppliers for many years and that shipping is not at risk due to chokepoints such as?the Strait of Hormuz. But a long-term move away from crude oil or LNG is not guaranteed, since the producers and exporters are unlikely to accept their demise. It may only take a rapid drop in prices and a prolonged period of low prices to make people forget about the previous crisis. Brent fell 4% to $83, on the?announcement of the deal, suggesting that this process is already underway. It's possible for governments and consumers to forgive and forget about the costs and disruption of the Iran War, just as they did in the past after price spikes caused by conflict. The views expressed are those of author, a contributor to. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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US closes investigation into 2024 Delta Air Lines melting down sparked by CrowdStrike failure
The Trump?administration announced on Monday that it had?closed?an?investigation, without seeking penalties, into a July 20, 2024 meltdown of Delta Air Lines sparked a global outage which disrupted the plans of 1.3 millions customers and cost $500 million to the carrier. Biden's administration launched an investigation into Delta after the CrowdStrike computer software outage. Other major carriers had been able to quickly resume normal operations. The U.S. Transportation Department spokeswoman said that the review revealed "Delta passengers received prompt refunds and adequate baggage assistance as well as appropriate?assistance to passengers with disabilities." USDOT, under President Donald Trump's administration, has rolled back some of the consumer protection initiatives announced by then-President Joe Biden. It has also reversed?a number?of penalties. Delta stated in a statement that it was thankful USDOT acknowledged "the catastrophic circumstance we faced as an Industry during the unprecedented outage" and dismissed the investigation by citing our care for customers. This included millions of dollars of refunds, hotel, food, and baggage assistance. USDOT stated that its decision to close the investigation included a directive to Delta to "provide adequate customer service assistance, including timely notification of your right to request a refund." Politico was the first to report on Monday that this decision was made back in November. USDOT waived an $11 million fine on Southwest Airlines in 'December. This was part of a settlement for $140 million over the airline's meltdown during a busy travel season. As part of the settlement, American Airlines was also required to pay $16,7?million in 2024. This was due to their treatment of wheelchairs and disabled passengers. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) closed its investigation last month into airlines that failed to comply with the required flight reductions at 40 major airports in 2025 during the government shutdown, without seeking any fines.
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Native Taiwanese paddle to the Philippines to reconnect a long-lost route
A group of native Taiwanese paddled to the Philippines in a wooden canoe that they built themselves, revitalizing a route that had been dormant for hundreds of years and reestablishing a cultural connection. The indigenous Batanes Islands, located north of Luzon in the Philippines, are also closely related to Taiwan's Orchid island. The 20-seater canoe named Ovayan, or "Golden Friendship", was built by six communities in Orchid Island, as part of an official project. It will take 24 hours to complete the trip, with 60 people rotating between support ships and taking turns rowing. Maraos is the chairperson of Taiwan’s Indigenous Peoples Cultural Foundation, and he himself is an Orchid Island tao. He said that his goal was to reconnect?the forgotten sea route. Maraos (who only goes by one name) said, "With this project, we're re-establishing a sea route between Orchid Island to Batanes. This will allow our cultures and language to continue being transmitted." Hsieh Hsiu Hsiung, a rower, stated that the boat was accompanied by another vessel for safety purposes. Hsieh, who is 61 and a diving instructor, said: "We are no longer afraid because we have modern vessels sailing with us." In the past, our ancestors may have used the stars and moon to guide them while sailing. The 'Tao' are one of Taiwan's smaller indigenous groups, with only a population of?around 5 000. Less than 3 % of Taiwan's 23,000,000 people are indigenous groups. Orchid Island, a popular tourist attraction, is often cut off from Taiwan by bad weather and its isolation. The 'Bashi Channel' is a strategic waterway that connects the South China Sea with the Pacific. Chinese warships patrol the area. Maraos said: "We hope this voyage can be respected by all nations," Maraos said. We do not want our ships or warships to be harassed while at sea by other nations. (Reporting and editing by Kate Mayberry; Ben Blanchard, Ben Blanchard's writing; Ann Wang, Cheng-Chia Hua; Ann Wang)
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EU lawmakers continue to pay compensation for delayed flights
The European Parliament agreed Monday that the EU should keep the current three hour flight delay threshold as the compensation threshold in its next set of airline passenger's rights. This agreement ended a decade-long debate. On 'Friday, the 27 member states agreed to maintain the current level compensation for airlines in case of delay. More than a decade before, the European Commission, which is the EU executive branch, proposed to reduce the amount passengers are entitled to. This issue pitted airlines who demanded greater flexibility in order to "remain competitive" against consumer protection organizations. Both sides have lobbied EU Institutions for many years. According to rules that have been in place since 2004, passengers who are delayed more than three hours may be entitled to compensation ranging from EUR250 ($290.05),?upto EUR600, depending upon the length of their flight. After years of debate the EU countries and European Parliament agreed to the status quo. The member states and the parliament have agreed that airlines can charge for large bags as long as they offer free small bags. They also agree to include the fee for cabin baggage in the basic ticket price. Consumers who choose to opt out of the agreement will receive discounts. The aim of the measure is to increase 'price transparency and comparison. These fees were widely criticized by consumer rights associations across the EU. This sparked a political fight in 2024 when the Spanish Consumer Rights Ministry fined low-cost airlines EUR179,000,000 for charging them. The airlines have appealed against the fine. These countries have also enacted rules allowing an accompanying adult?to sit near a child?without paying a fee, and forcing airlines to provide?more services in the event of missed connections. The law also prohibited airlines from forcing their passengers to download an app on their mobile phones to obtain a boarding card, a practice Ryanair began in November.
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There are some flights to the Middle East that have resumed but there is still disruption.
Some airlines have begun to restore some flights in the Middle East, although many suspensions remain in place following the U.S. and Israeli?strikes against Iran in February that disrupted global travel. Here is a list of the current status of airline flights in alphabetical order. AEGEAN AIRLINES Thessaloniki-Tel Aviv flights were cancelled by Greece's biggest carrier until 26 June. Dubai flights are cancelled through August 31. Erbil, Baghdad and Erbil flights will be cancelled until September 30. AIRBALTIC AirBaltic, a Latvian airline, has canceled flights to Tel Aviv and Dubai until the 28th of June. AIR CANADA Canadian Airlines has canceled flights to Tel Aviv, Dubai and Abu Dhabi until October 24. AIR EUROPA Spanish Airlines has cancelled all flights to Tel Aviv up until the 28th of June. AIR FRANCE-KLM Air France suspends Tel Aviv flights through June 21 and Beirut and Dubai flights through June 24. KLM has suspended flights from Dubai to Riyadh until August 2, and until July 26 to Dammam and Riyadh. CATHAY PACIFIC Hong Kong Airlines has suspended its flights to Dubai and Riyadh through August 31. The U.S. carrier suspended service for the Atlanta-Tel Aviv routes?through December 18th. The airline plans to resume New York JFK to Tel Aviv flight on September 6. Boston to Tel Aviv service, which was scheduled to launch in late October, will now be delayed. FINNAIR It has canceled its Doha flights and will continue to avoid Israel, Iran, Iraq, Syria, and the airspace surrounding those countries. The airline will resume its Dubai flights in October, which are only operated during the winter season. British Airways, owned by IAG, delayed the resume of flights to Doha and Riyadh to August 8th. Flights from Amman, Bahrain, Amman, Dubai, Tel Aviv and Dubai are suspended until the end of'summer'. They are expected to resume on 25 October. When the flights resume, it plans to reduce service to Dubai, Doha and Riyadh to just one flight per day, while dropping Jeddah from its list of destinations. JAPAN AIRLINES Japan Airlines has suspended all scheduled flights between Tokyo and Doha until August 1st, and Doha to Tokyo until July 31st. Polish Airlines has cancelled all flights to Riyadh and Beirut until 30 June. LOT will begin operating its winter route from Dubai in October. LUFTHANSA GROUP Lufthansa has announced that it will resume Tel Aviv flights as soon as July 1, whereas ITA Airways has confirmed they will resume them as of July 1. SWISS delayed the return of flights to August, while Brussels Airlines suspended its operations until October 24. The suspension of Dubai flights by Lufthansa SWISS and ITA Airways continues until September 13th. Lufthansa has suspended all flights until October 24 to Abu Dhabi, Amman Beirut, Dammam Riyadh Erbil Muscat Tehran. Eurowings, a low-cost airline, has suspended its flights to Tel Aviv and Beirut until July 9 and July 17, respectively. Erbil and Dubai will be affected until June 30, and Amman and Abu Dhabi until October 24. ITA Airways also?extended its suspension of flights to Riyadh till July 31. MALAYSIA AIRLINES From July 2, the Malaysian airline will resume limited service to Doha. NORWEGIAN AIR The low-cost carrier has delayed the launch of its Tel Aviv, Beirut and other services indefinitely. No new dates have been set. QANTAS Australia's national carrier has added flights to Rome, Paris and other European destinations to meet the increased demand. The number of flights to Paris is to increase to five weekly return flights from three, and the Perth to Singapore service will go from daily to ten a week. A new?schedule for flights will be implemented gradually from mid-April until late July. ROYAL MAROC Moroccan airline announced that flights to Doha have been cancelled until 30 June. SINGAPORE Airlines In response to increased demand, the carrier has extended the suspension of its Singapore-Dubai flights until August?2. It also added services on Singapore-London Gatwick (late March) and Singapore-Melbourne (late March-October 24). TURKISH AIRLINES SunExpress, a joint venture between Turkish Airlines and Lufthansa has cancelled flights from Dubai to Bahrain until June 30, and Erbil, Beirut, and Erbil to July 14. WIZZ AIR Low-cost airlines have suspended flights from Europe to Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Amman until mid-September. (Compiled by Josephine Mason and Jamie Freed. Elviira Lioma, Tiago Branao, Agnieszka Olesska, Bernadette HOG, Alexander Klyve Gudbrandsen, Romolo TOSIANI, Boleslaw LaSocki). Matt Scuffham and Alexander Smith edited by Susan Fenton, Milla Nissi-Prussak Jonathan Ananda Joe Bavier, Louise Heavens, Louise Heavens, Louise Heavens, Louise Heavens, Louise Heavens, Louise Heavens, Louise Heaven, Bernadette Hogg, Romolo Tosiani.
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Sources say that Tatneft Russian's TANECO refinery halts its operations following a drone attack
Two industry sources have confirmed that the TANECO oil'refinery in Russia has suspended all crude 'processing after a drone attack on June 12th. Sources said that the fires and strike at the refinery led to the closure of both primary processing units: CDU-6 with a capacity?of 20,000 tonnes per day, or 45% of the total capacity?of the refinery,?and CDU-7 which?processes more than 23,000 tons each day. Tatneft did not reply to our request for a comment. TANECO is one of Russia's technologically most advanced refineries. It has?hydrocracking and catalytic cracking units, as well as delayed?coking?units. According to data from the industry, TANECO will process 17.0 million metric tons of crude oil in 2024. This will result in 2.7 millions tons of'motor gasoline', 8.5million tons of diesel fuel, and 1.3million tons of petroleum coke. Tomaszjanowski, Editor (Reporting)
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Airbus CEO criticises European regulatory costs when it opens new line
Airbus' head urged France and the European Union to tackle high regulatory and other costs that are weighing businesses down. He also said the issue of competitiveness needs to be addressed at the French presidential elections next year. Speaking to French politicians, including the transport minister of the country, at the opening of a new assembly in Toulouse in the south of France CEO?Guillaume Faury cited labour and energy costs. He called the cost?of European regulatory obstacles "absolutely horrendous". Faury spoke at the opening of a new assembly?line for the A321neo, the most popular narrowbody model. Airbus is aiming to increase the production speed of these models. This is the second line of this kind in the vast Toulouse factory that was once dedicated to the A380 superjumbo, the world's biggest airliner. Boeing, the arch-rival of the U.S., is 'also expanding production in its former 747 jumbo factory to produce its competing 737 MAX. The planemakers are reshaping their historic wide body factories to make a?way for...smaller planes which dominate today's market. Faury, a French aviation worker and politician, told workers at the former A380 factory outside Toulouse that the production of medium-haul aircraft like the A321neo is "at the core of Airbus's strategy". Airbus' A320 medium-haul family, which includes the A321neo, has surpassed Boeing's recently-problematic 737 in terms of sales. (Reporting and editing by Kirsty Donovan, Milla Nissi Prussak and Tim Hepher)
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El Al Airlines of Israel signs an internet deal with El Musk's Starlink
El Al Israel Airlines announced on Monday that it had?signed a contract with Elon Musk’s Starlink?to provide high-speed Internet across its entire fleet from next year. The financial details of the agreement were not revealed. Israel's flag-carrier said SpaceX's Starlink would be offered at no additional cost and would allow for hundreds of passengers to connect simultaneously. This would include long-haul flights. Fast in-flight Wi Fi has become a key perk for premium airlines to attract customers. Starlink, the company that operates two-thirds (or more) of the satellites in space and generates most of SpaceX's revenue, has signed up 11 new airline clients in 2026. Amazon is a competitor. El Al's Chief Executive Levy Halevy said that the integration of Starlink technology in El Al aircraft was a major step forward. Customers can now "stay connected while flying, watch live streaming, and work and communicate without interruption." The airline's fleet is a relatively young Boeing 787 Dreamliner, which it expects to grow in the coming years as well as expanding its route network. The airline has also ordered Boeing 737 MAX planes for flights to 'Europe. El Al has seen its profits increase since the Gaza War began in October 2023. Many foreign airlines have suspended flights to Israel. This is expected to change, however, if the agreement between Washington, D.C. and Tehran to stop the Iran war remains intact. Delta and United, two of the biggest U.S. airlines, have already announced that they will resume flights to Tel Aviv in September. Ookla, an analytics company, says that Starlink is faster than older systems because it uses low-Earth orbit satellites instead of geostationary satellites. (Reporting and editing by Steven Scheer, Kirby Donovan, Joe Bavier.)
US Space Force awards SpaceX $2.29 Billion contract for military satellite data network
SpaceX has been awarded a $2.29billion contract by the U.S. 'Space Force' to build a high-speed, secure satcom network that will 'connect military sensors, weapons platforms and communications across the globe.
The Space Data Network Backbone is covered by the non-traditional fixed-price contracting agreement. This resilient network architecture provides high-capacity, low-latency data transport for the military.
Space Force has said that the vendor will have to deliver a fully functional prototype capability by 2027. The SDN, among other things, will be responsible for providing the communications pathways to integrate and move data from missile warning and tracking sensors to interceptors near real time. This capability is seen as a foundational part of the Golden Dome missile defence initiative by the Trump administration.
Space Force Colonel Ryan Frazier said, "The SDN Backbone combines the best commercial innovation with a solid foundation for SDN missions -- a huge advantage and enabler for our warfighters."
Pentagon: The SDN 'Backbone' is a proliferation of low earth orbit (pLEO), satellite constellations that will expand a mesh to deliver worldwide communication services. The SDN?Backbone will work with the Space Development Agency Transport Layer to form an unified architecture that provides critical data transport for Department of Defense missions.
The Space Force has said that it plans to identify additional contractors over the summer for satellite construction and network elements. (Reporting and editing by Mark Porter and Rod Nickel in Washington.
(source: Reuters)