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SpaceX's Starship Test Strengthens IPO Case, but Obstacles Remain

SpaceX's Starship launch, which was upgraded on Friday, made enough progress to maintain the momentum behind?Elon Musk’s $1.75 trillion IPO. However Musk warned that the rocket's full reusability is still a work-in-progress.

Starship is crucial?to lowering SpaceX’s launch costs, expanding Starlink’s?satellite?business - its main cash generator - and supporting future endeavors such as space-based computing and deployment of orbital AI-data-center satellites, and possibly human missions to Mars and the moon.

"SpaceX didn't need perfection in this Starship flight. Mark Vena CEO of SmartTech Research said that it needed to show that the upgraded vehicle was moving in the right directions.

The company spent over $15 billion on developing what they hope will be a rocket that can carry far greater payloads than current launch systems.

SpaceX's first V3-iteration Starship test flight, its 12th since 2023 and first Starship prototype, was a success on all counts. The spacecraft was splashed down in the Indian Ocean after a series of mock satellites were deployed. It failed to land the Super Heavy booster in a controlled manner, and it fell into the Gulf of Mexico. Vena says that even an "imperfect" test can be used to strengthen the case for investment if it shows measurable progress towards full reusability.

Analysts and investors are bullish about the IPO. They believe that Musk will fulfill the high-risk promises he made in SpaceX’s IPO filing. Musk is known for turning engineering?bets involving high risk into dominant businesses.

James Bruegger said that full reusability was the key to lowering launch costs. "That's the real value."

The company has itself warned that delays in the development of satellites or AI infrastructure could be hindered by rising costs. This is in line with concerns raised by some investors who are concerned that Starship may get stuck in a loop of fixing and new failures without ever proving a complete working system.

The Starship launch reduced the risk of the Starship being stuck in a loop. It doesn't eliminate all execution risk, said Jesse Nacht a MarketVector Indexes research associate. "Unless there was a major catastrophe, I do not think expectations would be changed too much."

'LUKEWARM SUCCESS'

Antoine Grenier is the partner and head space consulting at Analysys Mason. He said that "lukewarm" success was a positive outcome and perhaps?the best.

He said that "total failure would've been problematic. Total success would've sparked a lot of excitement for the IPO."

Grenier said that the seven-month gap since the last flight meant that SpaceX had to launch before its IPO, because failing to do so "would have raised further questions" for investors evaluating SpaceX's execution rate.

The roadshow for this highly anticipated IPO will take place on June 4. If successful, it could raise up to $80 billion - the largest ever offering.

Investors increasingly evaluate SpaceX as more than a satellite launcher and provider of future AI infrastructure.

Musk defended xAI's trajectory on Tuesday, noting that the company, which is only three years old, is still at its infancy compared with rivals OpenAI or?Anthropic. He also said its models would be "great."

Analysts say that SpaceX is still a long way from proving Starship's ability to operate economically and reliably at scale.

SpaceX must demonstrate successful launches, payload deployments, orbits, and landings of the booster and vehicle before it can deploy the system on a large scale for the construction of a megaconstellation orbital data centres, said Austin Moeller.

(source: Reuters)