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Fuel shock in Iran War slashes 2026 profit forecast for global airlines

On Sunday, the global airline industry almost halved their 2026 profit projection, citing conflict in the Middle East, which has?driven fuel prices up, disrupted important air corridors, and exposed?the 'fragility of an industry operating on thin margins.

In its annual report, the International Air Transport Association (IATA), which represents over 370 airlines and accounts for about 85% global air traffic said that it expects to see a combined profit of $23 Billion in 2026. This is well below an earlier projection of $41 Billion, down from $45 Billion in 2025.

Even though passenger demand is resilient, planes are flying fuller, and revenues will rise to over $1.1 trillion, the downgrade highlights airlines' vulnerability to geopolitical events and fuel volatility.

Willie Walsh, IATA's Director General, said that the two main factors have led to a reduction in the forecast. "The first is the significant rise in jet fuel prices which has been higher than I thought anyone would have anticipated, and the second factor has been the disruption of the airlines in Gulf region," Walsh said at the annual meeting of the IATA group in Rio de Janeiro. Walsh predicted that some smaller airlines would go bankrupt this year or next due to higher fuel prices. Spirit Airlines, the U.S.'s low-cost airline, shut down in December. It was dubbed "the first airline victim of the Iran war".

Walsh stated that airlines are expected to cut routes which are not profitable to protect their margins. Fares, however, are unlikely to drop soon since they have risen dramatically since the beginning of the Iran War.

Walsh explained that fares would likely remain high in an environment where the demand is still strong, but the capacity has decreased.

A FUEL COST SHOCKS OUT HIGHER REVENUES

Airline reroutes flights to avoid restricted or closed airspace due to the Middle East conflict triggered by U.S. airstrikes against Iran. This adds hours?to some trips, increases fuel consumption and puts strain on already limited capacity.

Oil prices are surging on the back of fears about supply disruptions. This has pushed jet fuel prices higher, and widened refinery margins. Airlines have seen a sharp increase in their largest cost.

Gulf airlines like Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad Airways are facing the most operational uncertainty following a near-complete closure of regional airspace? at the start of the conflict.

Walsh said that most regions would remain profitable but at a lower level, whereas Middle East airlines will likely slip into the negative due to conflict and weaker demand.

IATA expects the fuel bill for airlines to rise to $350 billion by this year, from about $252 billion last year. Fuel accounts for?nearly a third? of operating costs.

This is reducing the profitability of airlines per passenger. Airlines are now expected to earn $4.50, or roughly half what they earned last year.

IATA anticipates that industry revenues will rise 9.4% this year to $1.16 trillion, driven by a steady travel demand and higher fares. They also expect to see a growing income from extras like seat upgrades and onboard service.

The sector is also being squeezed by aircraft shortages. Airline delays in Boeing and Airbus deliveries force airlines to use older, less fuel efficient planes for longer. This increases maintenance costs and stifles efforts to improve margins.

(source: Reuters)