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US airline stocks increase as oil prices fall to pre-Iran War levels

U.S. airlines stocks rose between 3% and 7% on Wednesday, after crude prices dropped to their lowest level since the Iran War. This sparked a hope that the pressure on carrier's earnings would ease. However, the benefits will not be passed directly to passengers.

S&P 500 Passenger Airlines Index jumped up to 5%, reaching an all-time record. It is now up 13% from its June 12 close. This was the day after U.S. announced a peace deal with Iran. The benchmark S&P has dropped by 0.5% during that period.

Brent crude futures dropped below $74 per barrel on Wednesday amid signs more oil tankers are set to leave the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz is a conduit that supplies a fifth of world oil.

Airlines will save billions in extra costs, as jet fuel prices have risen faster than fares during the Iran war. A sudden drop in airfares is unlikely due to the tight supply.

Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens stated that "sudden changes in fuel prices can affect the airline's profit in the short term (in the opposite directions of the fuel price), because many tickets have been sold assuming the prior fuel cost."

UBS stated in a Tuesday note that it believes the third quarter earnings per share of airlines could exceed Wall Street's expectations if fuel costs moderate.

Analysts say that while all airlines will benefit from lower?jet fuel prices, those with smaller fleets, a lower percentage of premium seats, and fewer customers, are likely to profit more as their margins can be more sensitive to spikes in?fuel prices.

Delta, JetBlue, and Frontier each rose by 3%, while Delta rose by 3.7%, and Southwest rose 4.5%. Alaska Air, United and American Airlines were each up around 6%.

According to the International Air Transport Association, jet fuel prices have fallen from a high of more than $170 to a weekly average of $119.17. This is a significant drop from a previous peak of nearly $170.

Michael Ashley Schulman is a partner at Cerity Partners. He said that the drop in oil prices was part of the story, but the end of the conflict with Iran also means the resumption of some industrial ventures which were put on hold.

The shares of online travel companies such as Booking Holdings, Expedia and others rose between 7% to 10%.

(source: Reuters)