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Ryanair's summer fares are lower as the company misses profit forecasts

Ryanair warned on Monday that the average summer fare was likely to be lower than last year due to the uncertainty surrounding the Iran War, and that the airline's after-tax profits for the April-June quarter were below analyst expectations.

Europe's biggest airline by passenger number reported an after-tax income of EUR538m ($615.6m) for its fiscal first quarter ending June 30 compared to a forecasted EUR579m in a poll of analysts.

Citi analysts said in a note that the airline's shares looked likely "to open down a low-mid-single-digit-%" ?following the miss.

FARES 'TRENDING MODERATELY DOWN

Michael O'Leary, Chief Executive Officer of British Airways, said that the first-quarter average fare was 6% less than last year's same-period fares. "The Middle East conflict has led to consumer hesitancy and concerns about EU jet fuel shortages as well as economic uncertainty, which have delayed bookings," he explained.

The final outcome of the H1 fare is highly dependent on the strength and volume of last-minute bookings, which is what drives profit for budget airlines.

Ryanair's last quarterly results, released in May, stated that fares would likely be flat between July and September.

CFO SEES CAPACITY FALLING, FARE INCREASING IN THE COMING YEAR

Neil Sorahan, Chief Financial officer, said that the decline in fares will be temporary.

In an interview, Sorahan stated that "I wouldn't surprise to see some casualties this winter... There's a couple of people who are very close to the edge."

He said he expected "significant" capacity to be reduced in Europe this winter "which could be beneficial for pricing." And a lot more?may be taken out in the summer of?2027.

Sorahan stated that the possible sale of British rival,?easyJet (which is currently in a bidding battle), could lead to a reduction of capacity, and trigger a "domino-effect" of consolidation across Europe.

(source: Reuters)