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Dubai's DXB passenger traffic drops more than 30% in the first half of the year as Iran War disrupts travel
Dubai International Airport's operator reported on Wednesday that passenger traffic fell 31.3% during the first six months of the year as the Iran War disrupted travel across the gulf, including at the busy international travel hub. Dubai Airports announced in a press release that DXB had welcomed 13 million passengers during the second quarter. This brings the total traffic for the first half of the year up to 31.5 millions. This is compared to 46 millions passengers during the same period last year. It?added that the number of aircraft movements in the first half was 150,600, a 32.1% decrease from last year. Flights have been cancelled, rescheduled, and rerouted as a result of the conflict that began on February 28. The fallout has reached far beyond the Gulf region, due to the soaring prices for jet fuel. Middle Eastern carriers, including some of the largest in the world, saw their networks disrupted by the conflict but gradually resumed activity. Emirates President Tim Clark stated last month that the airline was flying at 90% capacity. While more airlines are restoring their flights in the Middle East region, some major carriers such as?Lufthansa?, British Airways?, and Singapore Airlines?remain cautious and have?extended? suspensions?on?a variety of routes?in the region? Dubai Airports stated that the hub has shown resilience, as capacity is returning and investments are continuing. It said that "the'steady return of international airlines, improved connectivity and strengthening load factor signals resilient demand across key -markets and growing confidence ahead of DXB s traditionally busy second?half." Before the war began, the company predicted that passenger traffic would reach nearly 100 million this year. (Reporting by Federico Maccioni; Editing by Jan Harvey)
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Maguire: Seven charts show tighter energy markets by 2027.
Energy traders around the world are sending out a consistent message for 2027: they do not anticipate global energy markets becoming calmer any time soon. The energy markets are still a mess in 2022, with confusion over energy production and flow from the Middle East and Russia. Traders do not expect a return to 'predictable and stable energy systems that existed prior to Russia's invasion. Energy markets price a future where geopolitical tensions are high, supply chains are vulnerable, and key fuels products remain in shortage. Freight Pain The routes that connect the world's largest oil producing region with the biggest energy consuming markets are the clearest indicator. According to LSEG the daily time charter rates of tankers sailing between the Middle East and China has surpassed $600,000. This is only the second instance in history that this rate has exceeded $600,000. The renewed threat by the United States to launch an "economic assault" against Iran has sparked concerns over new tensions in the Gulf. The high prices reflect both the demand for ships and the risks associated with transporting fuel through key maritime chokepoints. The strength of the freight?markets indicates traders expect disruption risk around the Gulf to continue as a feature of international energy trade into next year. TENSIONS FOR REFINED PRODUCTS On refined fuel markets, the same message is evident. Diesel futures are trading in Europe at around 35% over their average for 2024-25 through 2027. U.S. Heating Oil Futures, which is a benchmark of diesel, currently trades about 42% over the average. Consistency is what makes these signals stand out. Europe and North America have different refinerys, fuel regulations, and supply chains. Both markets have priced in tight diesel supply for the entire year. This suggests that traders are more concerned about a general shortage of middle distillates than isolated regional imbalances. The Asian refining markets confirm this view. Singapore, Asia's main oil trading hub is awash with record-high refining margins for diesel and jetfuel. The refining margin is the amount of money that refiners get for converting crude into?fuels. A high margin is usually an indication that the demand for a product exceeds available processing capacity. The markets do not indicate a shortage of crude in the near future. The fuels that consumers use and support the global economy are in constant shortage. That distinction matters. In recent years, the global oil industry has increased its crude production capacity. It is much more difficult and expensive to replace refining capacity. The closure of a wave of refineries in Europe and North America have reduced the spare capacity. This has made fuel markets more susceptible to trade disruptions. EUROPE'S Power Woes The European energy market is also pointing in the same direction. The benchmark TTF natural-gas futures contract is trading at 38% over the 2024-25 average rate through 2027. Meanwhile, forward German power prices have risen to almost 70%. Both markets are nowhere near the highs that were reached during the energy crises triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But neither are the prices of a return to conditions prior to the crisis. The traders appear to think that Europe will continue to pay a premium for energy security, as it competes to import gas supplies and works towards balancing a power system more dependent on renewable energy. U.S. Gas STANDS ALONE Natural gas in the United States is the only exception to this tightening trend. Henry Hub futures prices are only modestly higher than their recent averages through 2027. This reflects confidence in America’s ability to produce large quantities of gas, even though LNG exports are continuing to grow. U.S. Gas, on the other hand, highlights a growing divide in global markets for energy, rather than contradicting a broader message. North America is one of few regions that has a large domestic fuel supply. Europe is heavily dependent on imported fuel. Asia is still vulnerable to disruptions both in shipping and refining. The seven markets together tell a cohesive story. The traders are not pricing a return to the energy abundance of 2022 or another energy shock similar to that in 2022. They are instead betting on geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, constrained refinery capacity, expensive transport and persistent competition to supply fuel to keep energy markets tight through 2027. The question is not whether the energy system can produce enough oil and natural gas, but rather if it can refine, transport and deliver those products at a reasonable price to meet the demand. These are the opinions of the columnist, who is also an author. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a week. (Reporting and editing by Jamie Freed; reporting by Gavin Maguire)
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Six months after the war began, the US-Iran conflict has descended into a trench-war on energy: Bousso
Six months after the U.S. vs. Iran war began, it has hardened into a stalemate which could last until 2027. Energy markets are held hostage and inflation is high, but neither side wants to or can back down. The war that has caused thousands of deaths and extensive damage in the Middle East has taken on a new face. It started on February 28, as a joint U.S. and Israeli effort to cripple Iran, aiming at eliminating Tehran's nuclear programs, weakening its proxy network, and possibly topple the Government. It has evolved into a more narrowly focused struggle centered on a single question: Who controls the Strait of Hormuz? This narrow waterway is used to transport roughly a fifth of world oil and liquefied gas. The dueling blockades by the U.S. and Iran have severely curtailed the traffic through the Strait in the last six months. This has disrupted energy markets and increased costs for global economies. Brent crude is still around $90 a barrel, about 25% higher than its pre-war price, largely due to the fact that crude prices did not rise as expected. This was mainly because of ample global stocks, reduced Chinese imports, and increased production outside the Gulf. The market buffers which cushioned the first energy shock have now been largely depleted - this is a concerning sign. The Trump administration may be prompted by this risk to either double down on the crisis or to retreat completely. The impasse remains a stalemate that is difficult to resolve. The deadlock is not being broken by either side. No Way Out Iran is unlikely to blink before the rest of the world. The economy of Iran has been severely affected. U.S. efforts have reduced oil exports, Tehran's primary source of income, by 85% compared to pre-war levels. In August, they were down to 250.000 barrels per day. This has fueled inflation and exacerbated hardship. The government has proved to be far more resilient than expected. The Iranian government did not collapse after the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in an Israeli airstrike on the first day of the war. Instead, it adapted and strengthened its position. Iran is unable to dominate its neighbors militarily but has shown that it can inflict pain on them economically by controlling the Strait of Hormuz. It does this through a series of attacks and threats made against oil tankers. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has shown little interest in escalating this conflict to the point that it could endanger U.S. soldiers or the global economic system. The conflict is becoming increasingly unpopular among U.S. citizens as the November midterm elections approach. Energy-driven inflation has exacerbated cost of living concerns. Washington has one main objective: to restore energy through Hormuz while lowering fuel costs at home. How? Beyond Hormuz The conflict has revealed the real bottleneck of the global energy system. The bottleneck is not crude supplies but refinery capacity. A fifth of Middle Eastern refining capacity has been shut down due to war damage and export disruptions. Chinese refinery activity has fallen below the level of a year ago, while Russian refinery output is still constrained by drone attacks from Ukraine. According to Energy Aspects, the combined impact of these disruptions in August reduced global refinery output by approximately 4 million bpd or 5% from a year ago. Fuel shortages are a result. This distinction is important for Trump's administration, because the voters do not buy crude oil but gasoline. The price of gasoline in the United States has risen by about 30% during the last year. Diesel prices are up more than 50%. Even if more crude oil begins to flow through Hormuz in the future, it will take much longer to rebuild refining capacities. The options available to the administration for reducing domestic fuel prices are becoming fewer and fewer. OPTICAL ILLUSION Recent White House actions highlight these limitations. U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent announced new sanctions against Iran on Monday and threatened secondary actions against countries that continue to do business. He called the campaign an "economic D-Day." But sanctions will not bring about any breakthroughs. And threats of secondary sanctions have little impact when Bessent made it clear that Washington wants to avoid taking actions that would seriously disrupt the global economy. This reduces the chances that the U.S. would impose severe sanctions on China, Tehran’s largest oil client - one the few economic measures which could have an impact with Iran. Washington also wants to sway markets by saying that oil flow through Hormuz is recovering quickly despite Iranian threats. In the last week, senior White House representatives have claimed that Gulf exports were approaching pre-war levels, as more tankers left under U.S. Naval protection with their transponders off. Chris Wright, Energy Secretary, said that the average for oil leaving Hormuz over a seven-day period had exceeded 8 million barrels per day. Shipping analytics companies monitoring Hormuz via satellite imagery and vessel tracking data, however, see few signs of a recovery. Kpler reports that oil exports have been averaging just 2.2m bpd in August. Total regional crude exports including shipments through Saudi and Emirati ports that bypass Hormuz averaged around 9 million bpd during August, down from 11 millions bpd last month and approximately 17 million bpd by 2025. Washington may be trying to reach a deal in secret, but the disparity between its public claims and data indicates desperation. TRENCH WARFARE Trump will find it harder to claim that the conflict is successful the longer it continues. The Islamic government is still in power. Hormuz is still constrained. Fuel prices are high and the economic costs continue. The U.S. has a vast?economic power and military might, but it is not interested in a larger war. Iran, despite being economically weakened, has shown a willingness and ability to endure extraordinary pain in pursuit of strategic goals. It is therefore a conflict of endurance, not manoeuvre. Despite what Trump & Bessent argued in this week, U.S. Economic pressure resembles grinding trench warfare which kept World War One alive far more than decisive Allied attacks that ended World War Two. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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New York Times Business News - August 26,
Here are the top stories from the business pages of the New York Times for August 26. The 'New York Times' has not'verified' these?stories, and cannot vouch for the accuracy of their content. SpaceX, Elon Musk’s rocket and artificial-intelligence company, announced on Tuesday that they would invest $100 billion to build a launch facility in southern Louisiana. They aim to send several rockets into space each day. Canada announced Tuesday retaliatory duties of up to 50 percent on hundreds of American products, days after the Trump administration imposed punishing tariffs following the failure of trade negotiations. The Trump administration submitted a 'nuclear cooperation agreement' with Saudi Arabia to Congress. This could allow the Kingdom?to enrich their own fuel for nuclear reactors. The U.S. announced "Economic D-Day", and threatened to punish any country or entity that does business with Tehran, in industries like?gold, digital asset?and aviation, among others, to choke off the few options Iran still has for global trade. (Compiled by Bengaluru Newsroom)
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Sources say that some oil companies avoid shipping on the Iran blacklist
Four sources who have direct knowledge of the issue said that at least three Indian refineries?and one global energy giant plan to stop using ships on Iran's blacklist for transfers between ships, including ship-to-ship, because they are concerned about security. Tehran announced Sunday that it had compiled a "blacklist" of 45 vessels which, according to the Iranian government, have violated its rules when crossing the Strait of Hormuz. It also said that any vessel transferring cargo with these ships would be subjected to action. This is a further escalation of its threats regarding the vital waterway in the global energy supply chain six months after the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran. The announcement by Iran appears to be aimed at preventing the so-called shuttle oil runs that Gulf oil producers like the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia, which have dedicated tankers, are undertaking to move oil through Hormuz to?unload through STS transfer in the Gulf of Oman on ships to end users. The shuttle runs are keeping oil flowing from the Middle East, which was?cut off by Iran's ban on shipping through the Strait due to the war. According to a posting on the?social media site X by the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (a new Iranian body created to manage the strait), the named vessels may be fined, held and their cargoes could be confiscated. One of the sources who works for an Indian refinery said, "We won't allow our chartered ships to deal with STS or any other non-compliant vessels that carry Middle Eastern cargoes." Sources declined to identify themselves because of the sensitive nature of the subject. Saudi Aramco, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co and Abu Dhabi National Oil Co own or charter some of the tankers listed by Iran. According to shipping data, the ships were used to transport crude oil, refined products, and liquefied gas (LNG), out of the Gulf, for STS transfers off Fujairah, UAE, or Sohar in Oman. Saudi Aramco & ADNOC refused to comment. Ana Subasic is a trade risk expert at the shiptracking company Kpler. She said that the most compliance-sensitive customers are likely to avoid these vessels in the future. However, the trade will more than likely reroute via alternative tonnages, counterparties, or transfer locations rather than disappear entirely. INTERNAL DISCUSSIONS Multiple trade and shipping sources reported that charterers and shipping companies are debating whether or not to continue STS operations and are evaluating Iran’s warning. One of the sources, a Gulf buyer of crude oil, said it would be safer to purchase oil delivered to a destination rather than free-onboard at STS locations in the Gulf of Oman. These?sources declined to identify themselves as well, due to the sensitive nature of the issue. Formosa Petroleum Corp President KY Lin said, "Our internal departments continue to discuss how we can proceed with crude delivery from the Strait of Hormuz by ship-to-ship transfers in the long-term." Iran has attacked a number of tankers in the past, including?the Wedyan B, Mombasa A and Al Bahyah. The AIS transponders of two of the twelve very large crude carriers listed on Iran's blacklist had been switched off since weeks. Subasic, a Kpler expert, said that the key concern is contagion. If Iran takes action on its threats to penalize ships that transfer STS with blacklisted oil tankers, it will reduce the number of shipowners, buyers and charterers willing to do so, especially among companies with Gulf exposure. It may also increase due diligence requirements, as well as freight, insurance, and risk premiums.
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Adani Energy Solutions, India wins $493 million transmission project in Maharashtra
Adani Energy Solutions, an Indian conglomerate, announced on Wednesday that it had won a transmission project worth $492.62 million (47 billion rupees) in Maharashtra. This is a major boost to the company's efforts to expand its clean-energy infrastructure. The company stated that the project would deliver up to 4,500MW of renewable energy and storage power within 36 months. The company will be able to add a total of?562 circuit kilometers of transmission lines, and 9,000 mMVA of capacity for transformation. India is racing to build the transmission networks needed to reach its target of 500 GW non-fossil power capacity by 2030, and to connect the growing pumped storage capacity to the grid. In an exchange filing, the company stated that the project would transmit renewable energy generated in Karnataka, to load centres located in Maharashtra. It will also'support pumped storage eco-systems in the Satara, Pune and Mumbai Metropolitan Region. The project involves a new substation in Satara and a transmission line between Kolhapur?and Satara?as well as upgrades to the Kolhapur pooling?station.
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Father of sailor on US aircraft carrier released from immigration detention
A Nicaraguan immigrant was taken into custody by the?U.S. His family reported that Border Patrol agents released his son, who was a U.S. Navy Sailor and was deployed at sea on an aircraft carrier in the U.S. - Israel war against Iran. Three days after Joshua Aviles made public his father's arrest and the pain he felt while serving his country, his family announced on Facebook that Luis Manuel Aviles Roa was released. Joshua Aviles wrote on Facebook that his father had been detained by immigration officials despite possessing a driver's licence, Social Security card, and work permit. He said his dad was waiting for a "green" card, which would grant him legal permanent U.S. residency. The sailor wrote: "I have been on deployment for more than nine months in the Middle East, aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln. I am fighting for a nation that has given me everything." "I don’t know how to continue working 12-plus-hour days when my dad is?somewhere, possibly being treated as a criminal." According to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Border Patrol agents arrested a sailor’s father following a traffic stop in Key West. DHS, the parent agency of Border Patrol, stated that Luis Manuel Aviles Roa entered the U.S. in an illegal manner and would remain at Immigration and Customs Enforcement's detention facility pending removal procedures. In a statement released on Sunday, the DHS stated that "having a family member serving in the military does not give you a pass to break our nation's law." A post on the son's account of Facebook said: "Luis was released to his family." It added, "We appreciate all the support for both Luis and Josh during this situation." The father's new status was not explained. The DHS and ICE did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Separate news reports have highlighted the challenges that the crew of the Abraham Lincoln faced during its long deployment to the Middle East for the Iran War, after not having made a port call in over 200 days. Democratic lawmakers claim that the aircraft carrier set a record for the longest period of time at sea. The issue gained national attention when sailors' families expressed concerns over the worsening conditions aboard the warship. (Reporting and writing by Kanishka Sing in Washington; Additional reporting by Steve Gorman, Los Angeles; Editing done by Thomas Derpinghaus).
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Sources say RPT-Air India is seeking $1.5 billion in compensation from Tata and Singapore Air, as its losses continue to mount.
Air India wants 'about $1.5 billion of fresh equity from its owners Tata Sons & Singapore Airlines. This comes months after Air India posted a record-breaking annual loss. This would be the largest request for funding from Air India made public since Tata acquired control of the former government-owned carrier in 2020. The letter highlights the challenges that the airline faces as it undergoes a multibillion-dollar overhaul, including refurbishment of the existing fleet. In the fiscal year ending March, the carrier and Air India Express' budget unit posted combined losses of 2,33 billion dollars. This is more than twice the losses from the previous year. Singapore Airlines has also suffered from the losses. Air India is looking for the money immediately. However, the infusion will likely happen in several tranches. Singapore Airlines will need to pay its share of the infusion to make the investment happen, according to one source. The two people stated that the company is looking for funding in the form of new equity. The two people said that discussions are still ongoing and there has not been a decision made on the request. They declined to be identified as they weren't authorised to speak publicly about the matter. Air India and Tata Sons have not responded to any requests for comments. Singapore Airlines, who owns about 25% of Air India said that it worked closely with Tata Sons in order to support Air India’s transformation programme but refused to comment on its finances. AIR INDIA'S TURNAROUND EFFORT Air India was also affected by the ban on Indian carriers flying in Pakistani airspace, the disruptions caused to its international network due to the U.S./Israeli war against Iran, and the fallout from a fatal crash that occurred last year. Tata Sons Chairman N. Chandrasekaran is preparing to step down from his position in February after months of disagreements with the group's charitable trust over Air India's losses. Chandrasekaran said that Air India's turnaround may take up to 10 years. He cited the persistent disruptions in the supply chain and the need for the airline to revamp its legacy systems, culture, and fleet. Air India is delaying the delivery of hundreds of aircraft ordered from Airbus and Boeing, as Tata pressures it to reduce costs and record losses. One of the sources said that Air India would continue to require capital infusions over the next few years. (Reporting and editing by Emelia Sithole Matarise; Abhijith Kalra, Aditya Kahlra)
Kenya Airways reveals potential investors as losses increase
Kenya Airways' chairman has said that the carrier will reveal details of new investors in a few weeks, as it seeks to raise capital for its turnaround plan, ease debt, and restore grounded aircraft.
Kiprono kittony, the chairman of KQ, told reporters that "we have received interest from both 'local' and international investors who are willing to inject capital into the company as well as other resources."
The airline is facing a number of challenges, including high fuel prices, delays in aircraft maintenance, and a lack of spare parts. These factors have led to a reduction in capacity, despite booming passenger demand.
Kenya Airways reported an pre-tax loss for the first six months of 2026 of 15.92 billions shillings (123 million dollars), compared to a loss last year of 12.17 billions shillings.
Fuel costs accounted for as much as 50% of the total cost of the airline on Wednesday, last week. The Middle -East conflict was to blame, according to the carrier. The Middle?East conflict has also caused delays in spare parts deliveries and maintenance services.
Kittony, a local broadcaster, told Citizen TV on Tuesday evening that the airline has received interest from investors from the United States of America, China, South Africa and Singapore. However, the process would be transparent because the company is listed at the Nairobi Securities Exchange.
Kittony stated, "We are confident we will be able to find a partner for capital raising and a partner who can provide strategic advice from the aviation industry."
He said that a major part of the plan was to clean up the airline’s balance sheet. This would include the conversion of principal debt owed by the Kenyan Government and a group of local banks into equity.
Kenya Airways is owned by the government. He said that it was also "a strategic imperative" for Kenya to maintain significant equity control over the carrier, in order to keep the status of national carrier.
(source: Reuters)