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Microsoft plummets, Meta rallies amid investor demand for AI payoffs

Big Tech earnings this week have been a clear message: Investors are willing to overlook spending on artificial Intelligence if it drives strong growth but will punish companies who fall short.

The stark contrast in the market's?reaction? to Microsoft and Meta's earnings on Thursday was a reminder of how much has changed since ChatGPT launched the AI boom over three years ago.

Microsoft lost 10% of its market value, losing more than $350 Billion, after its cloud business did not impress. Meta, however, gained 10%. Microsoft's $3.2 trillion market value still surpasses Meta's $1.86 billion, but Meta shares have risen 87% in the past two years while Microsoft's has only risen 7%.

Microsoft, which has ridden its first-mover edge with OpenAI in order to become the most valuable company on earth by 2024 is now being pressed by investors to justify its soaring capital expenditure. Microsoft's Azure cloud computing business reported revenue growth that was just slightly above expectations. AI, on the other hand, helped Meta increase revenue by 24% during the December quarter, and led to a positive first-quarter outlook. The results indicate that Facebook's AI gains were funding its capital expenditure, which was expected to increase by as much as 87% this year to $135 billion.

John Belton said that Meta's headline numbers are an interesting reflection of market attitudes toward AI spending.

"All other things being equal, the market is typically concerned. But they have a large revenue guide for?the first quarter."

Microsoft might have an OPENAI problem

Microsoft was also under pressure when it revealed that OpenAI, a prized holding of itss, accounted for 45% its cloud backlog. Investors worry that $280 billion may be at risk if the AI race is lost by the "unprofitable" startup. ChatGPT's creator issued a "code-red", an internal warning, in December following the launch of Google's Gemini 3 to positive reviews. He is now playing catch-up with Anthropic's Claude Code AI coding which has an annualized rate of over $1 billion.

Zavier Wong is a market analyst for eToro. He said that Microsoft's close ties with OpenAI are what makes it the leader in enterprise AI. But they also pose a concentration risk.

Microsoft predicts Azure growth will remain stable between January and March, at 37%-38%, following a slowdown in the final three months of 2025 due in part to AI chip capacity limitations.

Microsoft's finance chief Amy Hood stated on a call following the company's earnings that, if she had allocated all the graphics processor units (GPUs) that were just coming online in the first and second quarters to Azure, "the KPI (growth rate) would have exceeded 40%."

She also added that using chips for internal development had slowed the growth.

META BET ON AI'S COMPOUNDING EFFECT

The revenue growth for Meta shows that the AI pivot is paying off, and it's helping the company catch-up to the early leaders.

Meta predicts that growth could reach 33% this quarter.

Alphabet, the parent company, is spending a lot of money at cloud providers. This bodes well for Alphabet's next-week results. Alphabet shares rose ?1.6%.

Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Facebook, said that AI would "improve both the quality of organic experience as well as advertising."

Meta, who predicted that total expenditures would increase by 43% this year to $169 Billion, said: "I believe that it will have a compounding effect."

TESLA SET FOR DOUBLE OUTLAY IN THIS YEAR Elon Musk's Tesla will also double its spending this year, to more than $20 billion, as it pivots towards AI, humanoid robotics, and personal vehicles which can drive themselves.

Shares of the company rose 2.9% after it reported a quarterly profit and revenue above expectations.

Analysts noted that the results did not match up with investors' expectations of payoffs.

Jesse Cohen is a senior analyst with Investing.com. He said, "The market seems to be unsure whether these massive increases in capital expenditures will generate enough returns."

This reflects the growing gap between Wall Street's tolerance for long-term investment cycles and tech companies' AI aspirations.

(source: Reuters)