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Andy Home: Warning lights flash when aluminium reels are impacted by Gulf shock
The Iran War is likely to be the largest supply shock in the history on the aluminium market. According to the International Aluminium Institute, the Gulf's?production? of the metal, used in sectors such as packaging, solar panels and transport, plummeted in April to its lowest level in more than a decade. The regional run-rates fell by 2 million metric tonnes annually between March and April. In missile attacks, two Gulf aluminium smelters were damaged. The?Al Taweelah facility of Emirates Global Aluminium will require a full year to be repaired. One other producer,?Qatalum, has also reduced its?capacity. The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz causes major logistical issues for those who are still operating. The Gulf is the largest non-Chinese producer and a major supplier of goods to Japan, South Korea and the United States. The London Metal Exchange's (LME) price isn't indicative of the scale of the impact on supply. At $3,650 a ton, it is only up 14% since hostilities began and is still far below the 2022 highs following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The market dashboard is flashing red. LME TIGHTENS as Stocks Flow Away First, the LME spreads have been sharply tightened. The benchmark spread between cash and three-months at the LME Cash is trading at a $80 premium and the market has not been this tight since 2007. The squeeze was short-lived and only affected short position holders. This time, the tightness appears to be structural and persistent. The reason is that traders have raided the LME stock, which was already low. They are trying to fill in the supply chain gaps created by the loss of Gulf Production. LME registered stock has fallen by one third, to 339 475 tons, since the beginning of the year. In the last two weeks, almost 68,000 tonnes have been cancelled to prepare for physical loading-out. Gwangyang, a South Korean port, is the main storage location for Russian aluminum that was left over from LME's warrant. The sanctions against the Ukraine war have made it impossible for European or American buyers to purchase this aluminium. These recent daily withdrawals are not transfers to off-warrant stock. The LME's "shadow" stock has also been dwindling and is the lowest it's been since the exchange began reporting off-warrant storage in?2020. PHYSICAL PREMIUMS SURGE Second, the increase in physical premiums across the globe is a warning sign. Since the beginning of hostilities, the CME spot premium has increased by more than twice as much to $316 a ton over LME prices. Japanese buyers accepted a $350 premium for their second quarter deliveries. This is the highest price increase in 11 years. Since the beginning of March, the European duty-paid premium grew by 58%. The duty-unpaid premium grew by 75%. Due to import tariffs of 50%, the U.S. Midwest premium is up by only 8%. However, American buyers are already paying record prices to secure metal. The Gulf supply shock is most evident in these manifestations. What is less visible is the situation in segments of the market that are not exchange-traded, such as billets. This product is used by the construction and transport industries. Fastmarkets, a price reporting agency, reports that the premium in Rotterdam for aluminium 'extrusion billets has doubled, to $1,100, over the LME basis price. STRUCTURAL DEFICIT The relative calmness of the LME's outright price masks a tightening along the processing chain. While LME traders price in the ebbs and flows of headlines surrounding the Iran War, physical buyers pay up to secure "enough metal" in a market heading towards a structural shortage. Mozal, a smelter located in Mozambique, was closed due to high energy prices. According to the latest IAI figures, the combined impact of the?hit' has resulted in a drop of 2.4 million tons in Western production during the past two months. The situation could get worse if the Gulf smelters that are still producing cannot source enough raw material via routes which circumvent Strait of Hormuz. China's giant aluminum production base has increased production, but it is now close to reaching the government's maximum capacity. There are few opportunities for significant growth. The country's?exports are likely to increase in response to the Gulf supply disruption, but these shipments are more likely in the form semi-processed metals such as strips, foils and bars than raw metal. The cushion can be a short-term one, but as the Strait of Hormuz is closed, it becomes thinner. This is a shock to a market that had been living with structural oversupply, and high inventories, for the past 20 years. Aluminum prices are not yet reflecting the changes that have occurred in the supply chain. However, physical buyers already know the extent of the changes. Andy Home is a columnist at. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Ireland hopes to pass a law lifting Dublin Airport's cap by the summer
Transport Minister of Ireland,?Friday, said that the Irish government will enact legislation?by mid July to lift a passenger cap at Dublin Airport. This has been criticized by U.S. Airlines. The government is rushing to lift the 32 million passenger cap per year, which has been suspended in anticipation of a ruling from the European Court. Last year, the airport exceeded its limit by four million passengers. Darragh O'Brien, Ireland's Transport, Energy and Climate Minister, said in an interview that he hoped to have the legislation passed by the Dail, the lower house of parliament, and the Seanad, the upper house, before the summer recess (mid-July). He added, "If not this, then it will be in early September." Planners capped the number of passengers at Ireland's major airport at 32 million in 2007 in order to reduce local traffic congestion. Some local residents are in favor of limiting the number of passengers at the airport. The airport carries 80%?of the air traffic in the country. Environmental?groups warned that its removal would weaken the oversight of an industry with high emissions. The measure was taken by Irish airline chiefs who warned that it would harm the country's economic growth and plans to make Dublin a hub of international aviation to rival London Heathrow. O'Brien stated that Dublin Airport was of strategic importance to our country and the cap should be removed. U.S. Airlines have also opposed this cap. Local carriers warned that the U.S. Government could retaliate by restricting transatlantic flights from Dublin, if it is not removed quickly. In January, the industry group Airlines for America filed a complaint with the U.S. Department of Transportation accusing Ireland of violating the EU-U.S. agreement that grants airlines the right of operation?in both jurisdictions and asked it to restrict Irish carriers' access into the U.S. O'Brien stated that the U.S. Government was satisfied with his timeline. European airlines warned that they could face jet fuel shortages due to supply disruptions caused by the. O'Brien stated that Ireland does not face any imminent shortages of fuel, and government analysis predicts no shortages in the remainder of this year. (Reporting and editing by Hugh Lawson; Padraic Halpin and Kate Abnett)
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UAE equity gains as oil rallies due to US-Iran uncertainty
The stock markets of the United Arab Emirates ended a tad higher on Friday, with Dubai outperforming the rest. This was due to rising oil prices. Investors were doubting the prospects of a breakthrough in U.S. - Iran peace talks. The nations are divided over Tehran's uranium stocks and the control of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude rose 2.85% to $105.5 per barrel at 1130 GMT. Dubai's main stock market rose 0.6% led by the real estate and industrial sectors. Parkin Company, a parking service provider, and a blue-chip developer named?Emaar Properties both grew by 1.7%. Emaar Properties announced that Hesham Heikal, the head of finance for the Emaar Development group, had left the company. Pawan 'Chindalia is now the finance chief. Parkin stated that a new 5% tax on parking services will not impact their financial situation. Hani Abuagla is a senior market analyst with XTB MENA. He said that the stock markets in the UAE remained stable and were trading at levels similar to those seen in recent days. Investors are likely to remain cautious as they monitor the developments in the talks between the U.S. Abu Dhabi's benchmark indices?gained 0.2 percent;?real estate giant Aldar Properties rose 3.5 percent and Adnoc Gas, the state-owned energy company, advanced 1.2%. Aldar Properties, the real estate giant, announced that it had sold out its Al Ghadeer Garden development upon launch. This generated more than 1 billion dirhams ($272.32million). According to LSEG data, the 'Dubai and Abu Dhabi' indexes have lost 0.3% and 0.2% respectively for the week.
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Baltic Exchange: Mercuria's lawsuit against losses in the Hormuz shipping market is damaging.
Baltic Exchange, which is the top global provider of shipping benchmark indices, reacted on Friday to a London lawsuit filed by commodity trader Mercuria over the closing of the 'Strait of Hormuz', saying that the case had caused market uncertainty. Mercuria, one of the largest energy and commodities traders in the world, sued the Baltic Exchange for losses caused by inaccurate oil tanker prices. Mercuria, a Swiss company, stated in documents filed with the London High Court on April 30, that the Baltic Exchange continues to publish the benchmark crude tanker TD3C index despite the closure of the waterway. The TD3C is based on journeys from the Gulf of Mexico to China. Mercuria claims that?TD3C no longer accurately or reliable represents the underlying markets it is intended measure, distorting and disruptive shipping and freight derivatives market. Lawyers for 'the Baltic Exchange' told London's High Court the data they relied on to publish 'TD3C' was accurate and reliable, and that Mercuria was responsible for disrupting markets. At a short preliminary hearing, James McClelland, the lawyer for the Baltic Exchange said that the mere fact of the claim was corrosive. He said the Baltic Exchange provided information to participants in the market and that "benchmarking would be unworkable" for exchanges to be held responsible to users. David Wolfson, an attorney representing Mercuria said that the trader wasn't the only one with concerns. Citing a Financial Times article on Friday, Wolfson stated that TotalEnergies was also "considering" suing the Baltic Exchange. Mercuria stated in documents filed in late July that while the alleged losses had not been quantified yet, they are "currently estimated to be hundreds of millions of U.S. Dollars". McClelland, the lawyer for The Baltic Exchange, said that, however, "the exchange's liability towards its users is limited to either their membership fee or subscription fee or PS5,000 ($6,710)." Judge Christopher Butcher has ruled that a trial expedited should be held later this year. He noted the "wider concern of the market in relation to the relevant benchmarking". The Baltic Exchange in London, which is owned by Singapore's SGX (Singapore Stock Exchange), produces daily benchmark rates, indices, and other data that are used around the world for trading and settling freight contracts. Since the beginning of the war, The Baltic Exchange has conducted market consultations and offered an alternative benchmark.
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Kenyan public transport operators end their strike after the government reduces diesel prices
Kenyan public transportation operators have called off a strike that was scheduled to begin next week after President William Ruto announced Friday the government will cut diesel prices by over 4%. This week, public transporters went on a two-day walkout to protest the increase in fuel prices following the Iran War. This brought the economy to a halt in Nairobi's capital and led to clashes between protesters, police and other citizens that resulted in four deaths and 30 injuries. In a televised address?on Friday?, Ruto stated that he had ordered the price of diesel to be reduced by 10 Kenyan Shillings ($0.0772)?per litre during the June-July cycle in order to provide further relief to consumers. Last week, the government increased diesel prices for the May-June price cycle by 23.5%, to 242.92 "Kenyan" shillings per litre. However, they were reduced by 10 shillings by Monday, in response to the strikes. After Ruto announced the new cut, the leaders of the transport industry, who were standing with him as he addressed Kenyans, called off the strike for next week. Fuel price cut to deal further harms public finances Ruto stated that his government spent a minimum of?28,1 billion Kenyan shillings between April and June to reduce fuel costs. Kenya's already strained finances will be further impacted by the additional cut. Kenya's total debt service reached 71.2% in fiscal 2024/25, up from 50% four years earlier. Ruto is a re-election candidate in 2027 and has been the target of several protests over high living costs. In 2024, nationwide protests forced him to pull $2.7 billion of proposed tax hikes. He nevertheless said Kenya had been shielded from the worst of surging global crude prices by government-to-government fuel supply deals ?his government first struck with Middle ?Eastern governments in 2023. "Through the government-to-government fuel ?supply framework, we have secured guaranteed fuel supplies, despite global supply chain disruptions, ensuring uninterrupted fuel supply availability across the country," he said.
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Zelenskiy: Ukraine has attacked a Russian oil refinery at Yaroslavl
Ukrainian forces attacked a Russian oil refinery near the Ukrainian border, about?700 km (435 mi) away, said President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Friday. This is the latest of a series strikes by Kyiv against oil facilities in Russia. He said that the Defense Forces of Ukraine had operated overnight against targets near the Yaroslavl Oil Refinery, which is about 700 kilometers from his territory. Ukraine has intensified their attacks on Russia in order to disrupt Russia's?oil?industry? and reduce revenue that Moscow uses to fund the war in Ukraine. The Iran conflict has led to a rise in global energy prices and the lifting of sanctions on Moscow’s oil sales. Kyiv is also adopting a tactic whereby it hits the same facility?several more times. According to the Ukrainian Defence Ministry, on X, Ukraine has hit 11 Russian oil 'facilities' this month. This includes?one? of Russia?s largest refineries Kirishi. Official data and sources said this week that virtually all major oil refineries located in central Russia have been forced to stop or reduce fuel production following recent drone attacks by Ukraine. Zelenskiy said, "We are bringing the conflict back to Russia and that is only fair." (Reporting and editing by Toby Chopra; Anna Pruchnicka)
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Sources say that RPT-Bharti seeks UK support for raising BT stake
Three people with knowledge of the matter have said that the Indian conglomerate Bharti Enterprises 'is looking to increase its stake in BT just below the threshold which would require them to make a takeover bid for the British Telecoms Group. The group, led by Sunil Bharti Mittal (a billionaire founder), is seeking UK government approval to increase its stakes in the London listed company. These people spoke on condition of anonymity as the matter was private. One person said that it could increase its stake up to 29.9% in order to gain a greater economic?exposure with BT, but did not intend to pursue a complete takeover. Bharti's spokesperson said that the company is "pleased" with its current shareholding of 24,95% and has no plans at this time to increase it. Cabinet Office of the UK government declined to comment. BT referred all questions?to Bharti and the UK government. Bharti's decision to increase its stake above 25% will be reviewed by the UK government in accordance with the National Security and Investment Act. This Act gives the government more say on deals that may affect national interests. In 2024, the group acquired a 24.5% stake from Altice's Patrick Drahi. This made it a strategic shareholder of BT. Bharti stated at the time that it supported BT's management team and "ambitious transformation program" to achieve long-term, sustainable growth. LSEG data shows that BT shares are up 55% since Bharti acquired the stake. According to LSEG, Bharti Televentures holds the stake. BHARTI DOES NOT PLAN TO BID FOR ALL OF BT Bharti owns Bharti Airtel, a brand that operates in 17 countries throughout South Asia and 'Africa. At the time of the acquisition, Bharti said that it had no intention of bidding for the entire BT company, the former British state monopoly and the largest broadband and mobile telecommunications provider. Mittal, the founder and chairman Bharti Enterprises and Gopal Vittal Vice Chairman & Managing Director Bharti Airtel joined the BT Board in September as non-independent, non-executive non-executive members. After a thorough national security assessment, the UK approved the purchase of BT's London-listed shares at the end 2024. This was after assurances from the telecoms firm. The UK government announced that BT had established a 'national security committee' to oversee the "strategic activities" it performed which affected or were in relation to the national security of the country.
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InPost announces that FedEx's $9 billion buyout will open on May 26,
InPost, a Polish parcel locker company, announced on Friday that the consortium of FedEx International, Advent International and InPost investors will make a?buyout offer worth EUR7.8 billion (USD9 'billion). The offer is valid from May 26 until July 27. The company stated in a'statement' that regulatory clearances for the deal have already been received in China, Israel and Italy. InPost's shareholders support the all-cash?bid for a takeover announced in February, unanimously recommended by InPost board. For the deal to be completed, however, 80% must be?tendered. The EUR15.60 bid per share would allow U.S. FedEx to increase its reach in Europe while building a European parcel locker champ. After the transaction is completed, InPost's stock will be delisted from?Euronext Amsterdam. InPost announced that two extraordinary general meetings would be held to inform the shareholders of the offer.
Mercedes will roll out automated urban driving in Germany by the end of the year
Mercedes-Benz announced on Friday that it will roll out its 'urban point-to-point automated driving system' in Germany by the end of the year. The company hopes to be one of the first automakers to offer the technology.
In a LinkedIn posting, Chief?Technology Officer Joerg Burzer stated that the system will be available in certain German cities by the end of 2026. It will then expand nationwide in early 2027.
Burzer writes that this brings the technology to Germany after China and the United States. The Stuttgart-based automaker also wants to "remain in the forefront of the international competition in assisted and automated driving".
Burzer and German Transport Minister Patrick Schnieder met on Friday to discuss the planned deployment.
Mercedes works closely with the Ministry and the KBA Road Traffic Agency "to bring these and other innovations quickly to the market", he said.
A company spokesperson said that the system would be first available in Stuttgart and Munich. It can navigate complex traffic situations such as traffic lights, lane changes and heavy city traffic under the supervision of the driver. (Reporting and editing by Matthias Williams, Ludwig Burger, and Rachel More)
(source: Reuters)