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Maguire: Why Italy's low hydro output could hamper Europe's gas reconstruction efforts
The European push to build up natural gas stocks is largely influenced by global LNG storage and flow targets. Another key constraint is found further south, in the Alpine reservoirs which underpin Italy's Hydroelectric System. It is a silent stabilizer of Europe's gas supply when Italy's hydro production peaks. This allows power companies in the region to reduce gas consumption as hydro generation reaches its peak. When Italy's hydro-production is weak, the effects are felt far beyond its borders. The stronger gas consumption in Europe's 3rd largest gas consumer tightens up supplies across the region. Data from LSEG & Ember show that Italy's hydro -production is down by more than a quarter compared with normal after a warm, dry winter. Gas power production has also risen to its highest level in four years. Italy's hydropower peak is likely past due to the low snowfall this winter and a warm, wet spring which has accelerated snowmelt. This means that any future increases in the national power requirements - for example, increased use of air conditioners to combat heat waves - will almost exclusively be reliant upon natural gas plants which are the backbone of the electricity system of the country. Italy's increased gas consumption during the same period could complicate the restocking effort by causing a shortage of gas and possibly raising prices. Italy and other southern European countries may be forced to burn more gas in the future due to hydro dam production levels that are well below average, while other parts of Europe aim to put more gas in storage tanks. From First to Last? Italy, in an ironic twist of the European gas storage saga is currently leading the way when it comes to replenishing gas tanks after?severe depletions during the winter. According to LSEG's data, Italy's gas storage system is around 61% full. This compares with less than half of the tanks at the end April, when they were the lowest for years. Gas storage levels in Europe are only 41% full. This is the lowest level for several years. Regional gas tank operators will need to increase their efforts to restock if they want to have full inventories by winter. Italy's low hydro levels may force power companies to slow down gas storage rates and increase their?gas consumption. LSEG data shows that Italy's hydro dams produced an average of 2,472 megawatts per hour (MWh/hr) between January and May. This is a decrease of 28% compared to the same period in 2025 and the lowest since 2022. Italy's energy firms increased the average amount of gas-fired electricity generated from January to May by approximately 5.2% compared to 2025, or around 11,400MWh/h. The average gas generation in May was 7,373MWh/month, which is 35% higher than the average rate of 2025 during the same period, when the average generation from Italy’s hydro dams averaged around 38% more than this year’s May total. IMPACTS ARE BIGGER It is more than simply changing the mix of power for Italy's generators. The switch from hydro to gas has a material impact on system generation costs. The network of hydroelectric power plants in northern Italy can generate large amounts of dispatchable electricity at a low cost, allowing gas to be stored and reducing overall production costs. When hydro dam production is hindered, Italy's energy producers are forced to use more expensive natural gases to fill any gaps in generation, which increases system costs. The impact is felt across Europe. According to Gas Infrastructure Europe, Italy's periods of strong hydro production have allowed it to contribute to the gas rebuilding cycle in Europe, since the country holds close to 20 percent of the region's total gas storage capacity. When hydro production fails, the dynamic changes. The gas burn increases, storage injections are slowing, and Italy's position shifts from one of buffer to one of constraint. The challenge is not cyclical anymore. Italy's hydro production is becoming less reliable structurally. Warmer winters are eroding the Alpine snowpack and reducing the amount of water that is available for spring melt. Hotter summers also increase evaporation and put pressure on reservoir levels. The patterns of rainfall are also becoming more unpredictable, making it difficult to store and capture water. This system produces a lower and more volatile production throughout the year. Hydropower is no longer a reliable backbone in Italy's energy mix. It has become a less predictable source of power. This unpredictability is most important during the spring and summer, when Europe is trying rebuild its gas stocks. Trackers of Europe's stockpiles of gas must also keep an eye on Italy's reserve output. This suggests that regional gas consumption may be increasing just as storage injections reach their peak growth period this year. These are the opinions of the columnist, who is also an author. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks.
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Indian shares fall on Asia-wide selloff due to oil price spike
Indian shares fell early on Monday as they tracked a sharp selloff in?Asian markets and crude prices spiked because of the escalation in the Middle East conflict. Brent crude jumped 3.5% to?about $96.5 per barrel, after Iran launched missiles against Israel in response to Israeli strikes on Beirut. This reduced hopes of an end to the war and raised fears about continued disruptions to oil supply. India's benchmark index Nifty 50 dropped 0.95% at 23,142.20, and the BSE Sensex fell 0.95% at 73.529.06 as of 9:50 a.m. IST. Thirteen out of 16 major sectors fell, with the high-weighted financials and IT falling by 0.9% and 1,7% respectively. The broad?small-caps? and mid-caps? declined by about 1%. The MSCI Asia ex Japan index fell 2.8%. South Korea's KOSPI dropped 5% and Japan's Nikkei declined 3.7%. This was mainly due to declines in AI linked stocks after recent blistering rallys. The unwinding of the AI-led rally on other Asian markets, and the renewed geopolitical tensions across the Middle East has intensified investor anxiety. Hariprasad stated that "near-term sentiment will likely remain cautious until global markets, crude oil prices and the technology sectors return to stability." Investors are also wary due to rising expectations of a U.S. interest ?rate hike after a stronger-than-expected May jobs report. India announced on Friday a series of'steps' to defend the rupee as it struggles with the high cost of oil and the outflow of foreign investors in the aftermath?of the Iran War. InterGlobe Aviation shares fell by 2.8% after Bloomberg News reported that the airline is unlikely to be able to receive all nine Airbus A321XLRs this year due to supply chain issues caused by the Iran War. EMS' stock price jumped by 14.1%, bucking the trend. It received a 10.8 million dollar order worth 1.03 billion rupees. ($1 = 95.2750 Indian rupees). (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu S. Sahu, Mrigank Dhaniwala.)
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Indian shares open lower after oil spike and Asia selloff affect sentiment
Indian shares opened lower on Monday as they tracked a sharp selloff across Asian markets due to a'spike in oil price,' a resurgence of Middle East tensions, and fears about a U.S. rate hike. By 9:15 a.m. IST, the benchmark Nifty fell 1.22%, to 23,080.70. The BSE Sensex dropped 1.11%, to 73,421.61. All 16 major industries?recorded losses. Financials and IT stocks with high weighting lost 1,3% and 1.5% respectively. The small and mid-caps fell by 1.2% and 1,3% respectively. Brent crude futures rose 3.5% to $96.5 per barrel after Iran fired'missiles' at Israel following Israeli strikes in Beirut. This reduced hopes of an end to the war, and raised fears about disruptions to oil supply. The MSCI Asia ex Japan index fell 2.7%. South Korea's KOSPI dropped 4.8%. Japan's Nikkei declined 3.8%. This was mainly due to declines in AI-linked stocks following their recent rally. A stronger-than-expected ?May jobs ?report lifted expectations for a U.S. Federal Reserve rate hike by end-2026, ?also weighing on sentiment. CME FedWatch reports that the probability of a Fed rate rise by December 2026 has increased to 72.3%, up from 45.2% just a week ago. The higher the?U.S. Higher?U.S. (Reporting by Bharath Rajeswaran in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)
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China's global ecommerce push is stalled as the Iran war raises costs and dampens demand
China's export engine for e-commerce is in trouble as rising jet fuel prices and a weaker demand by lower-income Western consumers linked to the Iran War threaten the?profits of big online platforms such as Temu, Shein and AliExpress. Business models based on shipping $5 dresses from?Chinese factory to customers around the globe were already under stress after U.S. president Donald Trump introduced tariffs, and axed waivers for low-value parcels. Data shows that the Middle East conflict is causing a surge in logistics costs, and industry experts agree. Shippers such as DHL Express are imposing heavy fuel surcharges. China's low cost e-commerce, which has soared in the last six years, dropped 10.9% to $9.81 Billion in April, marking the fifth consecutive decline compared to the previous year, according to Trade and Transport Group, a Luxembourg-based consultancy. Costs are passed on to consumers Diana Qiao is a Shenzhen seller of women’s clothing who sells on Temu. She said that she raised her prices by $2 as her shipping costs per garment increased by an average of $1. Qiao said that "the final burden will be borne by the consumers." She added that this increase was "needed to protect my profit margins" and although sales have decreased slightly, she has not yet seen a need to alter her shipping arrangements. Analysts and industry insiders believe that falling export values indicate not only the cost squeeze but also the end of the hyper-growth era for large low-cost platforms. The companies are moving more products into bulk warehouses for local dispatch, rather than flying all the goods directly from China. He said that it would be reasonable to consider the cost of air freight in relation to the value and quality of the product. If you buy a top weighing 300-400 grams, air freight will account for 60% of the total cost. Shein is expanding its warehouse capacity throughout Europe. Last month, it opened its third warehouse near Birmingham, in Britain. Alibaba, the owner of AliExpress, said it was focused on "maintaining a value-for money pricing for consumers" and "providing a stable environment for both sellers and consumers despite global transportation costs fluctuation". Shein and Temu didn't respond to any questions regarding the impact of air freight on their business. PLATFORMS DEMAND IS LOWER AS BUSINESS MARKS MATURE Exports are higher today than two years ago. The start of 2025 saw a significant frontloading of goods ahead of U.S. Tariffs. Returning to the growth of the last few years will be difficult, as Shein and Temu already have a significant share of the market and the rising petrol prices in the U.S.A. and Europe are impacting the household budgets. The European Union will also impose an EUR3 charge on "low-value" e-commerce packages starting July 1. According to a China-based executive in freight forwarding who refused to be identified because he was not authorized to speak to media, air freight costs are a factor but platforms have also entered a slower growth phase and overseas consumption is declining due to inflation. According to Judah Levine, Freightos head of research, air freight rates will likely'stay high due to jet fuel prices, and it will take time for them to drop even if Iran conflict ends. If the cost of shipping remains high or increases further, some companies will switch to alternative modes of transportation or delay some shipments, said Martin Habisreitinger.
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Indian shares to fall due to oil price spike and Asia's sell-off
Indian shares are expected to open lower Monday as they follow a sharp selloff in?Asian markets due to a spike of oil prices, renewed Middle East tensions, and growing fears about a U.S. rate hike. As of 8:06 am, Nifty futures were trading at 23138. IST indicates that the Nifty will open about 1% lower than its previous close, which was 23,366.70. Brent crude futures increased 3.5% to $96.5 per barrel, after Iran launched missiles against Israel in response to Israeli strikes on Beirut. This reduced hopes of an end to the war as a whole and raised fears about disruptions to oil supplies. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that he would ask Benjamin Netanyahu to not retaliate against Hezbollah or Iran. Israel also warned of a new campaign in case it was attacked. The MSCI Asia ex Japan index fell 3.4%. South Korea's KOSPI dropped 6.9%, and Japan's Nikkei declined 4.4%. This was mainly due to declines in AI-linked stocks following their recent rally. U.S. equities also fell on Friday after ?a stronger-than-expected May jobs report lifted ?expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike. CME FedWatch reports that the probability of a Fed interest rate hike by December 2026 has increased to 72.3%, up from 45.2% one week earlier. India is less attractive to investors due to higher U.S. interest rates. In 2026, foreign portfolio investors have sold $28.63billion of Indian equity, surpassing the record-breaking annual outflows in 2025. This is due to concerns about the high crude oil prices, economic fallout following the Iran conflict, and India's limited exposure AI pure play companies. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its benchmark rate at the same level on Friday. They also announced a "slew" of measures to support foreign inflows as well as the rupee. The government raised its inflation estimate for fiscal year 2027 from 4.6% to 5.1% and lowered its economic growth estimate from 6.9% to 6.6%, even though the official data released after Friday's market hours showed that the growth rate remained robust at 7.8%, with domestic demand offsetting external weakness. STOCKS?TO WATCH Due to operational issues, Nesco intends to abandon?all four sites along the Raipur-Visakhapatnam Expressway? TVS Motor reports that its HLX motorcycles have sold over 5 million units worldwide * Bloomberg News reports Airbus delays XLR delivery to Interglobe Aviation due to war (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu Sahu in Bengaluru).
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A Ukrainian drone killed one in Russia-annexed Crimea according to a Moscow-installed Governor
In a Telegram message posted early on Monday, the Crimean peninsula's russian-installed Governor?Sergei?Aksyonov claimed that a Ukrainian drone had struck a train in Crimea and killed its?assistant?driver?and injured the driver?. Aksyonov said that the passengers on the train travelling between Moscow and Simferopol - the main city in the 'Russian-annexed Black Sea Crimea Peninsula' – were not injured. After a Moscow-friendly president fled Ukraine due to public protests, Russia annexed Crimea and seized it in 2014. Crimea is popular with Russian tourists. Local authorities reported on Telegram that drone raid sirens were heard in the early morning hours of Monday at the Black Sea port?of Novorossiysk. The port is a major hub for exporting oil and grains from Russia's Krasnodar Region, about two hours away from the?bridge Moscow constructed to connect with Crimea. Recent 'Ukrainian drone attacks, which targeted fuel infrastructure, forced Russia-controlled 'Crimea' to tighten fuel rationing. Could not independently verify all reports.
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LATAM CEO expects further airline capacity reductions if the fuel crisis persists
LATAM Airlines' Chief Executive?Roberto Alvo warned that the industry could be forced to reduce capacity if fuel prices continue to rise into 2027. He also said there would be increasing pressure on airlines. Alvo said in an interview at the International Air Transport Association annual meeting in Rio. "At the end, that's the only thing you can do to try and balance the equation in the industry." Alvo said that airlines with stronger balance sheets, and more premium passengers were better positioned to absorb the fuel shock. He said that carriers with weaker finances, or those who are more exposed to customers who are price sensitive, like ultra-low cost carriers, will face greater challenges. He stated that the higher borrowing costs for airlines are already reflected in bond prices, as investors react to the fuel price shock. Alvo stated that if the effects of the war continue, "it won't get any better." Alvo says that LATAM’s fuel hedges do not protect the airline fully because current prices are higher than those covered by these contracts. Hedging can smooth out margins, but it cannot protect an airline against a sudden spike in fuel prices, Alvo said. Alvo predicted that 'aircraft and engine supply-chain' problems would continue to be a problem for at least two to three years. This will force airlines to maintain older planes in service longer. He said that engine and airframe manufacturers had "not been able to meet their commitments". Alvo said that engine manufacturers had benefited from the shortages by gaining pricing power, while airlines were absorbing the costs of delayed planes and engines. He said, "We must absorb the problem of not being able to get the engines for the aircraft we bought and that our suppliers had promised." Reporting by Rajesh Kumar Singh in Rio de Janeiro and Gabriel Araujo, edited by Manuela Andréoni
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Chairman: Fuel prices will not derail TAP privatization
The rising fuel costs in aviation won't derail the privatization process of Portugal's flag carrier TAP. It could select a strategic partner by the end of the year, said Carlos Oliveira, chairman of TAP. He spoke on the sidelines at the IATA Annual General Meeting held in Rio de Janeiro, on Sunday. Oliveira stated that "we are in a process which is very transparent and well defined, as it was set up by the shareholder -?the Portuguese state". Oliveira stated that the airline will be waiting for binding proposals by the end of July. He added that fuel "will not have an impact" since it is applicable to the entire industry. Air France-KLM, Germany's Lufthansa and British Airways owner IAG were the only airlines that submitted a?non binding bid for a majority stake in TAP after IAG initially showed interest but then opted out. Portugal wants to sell 49.9% stake in the airline, while a 5% share is reserved for its employees. Oliveira stated that although the final decision is made by the Portuguese government, TAP's Board will be involved in reviewing the strategic plans of each bidder. TAP is looking for a partner who can offer access to wider, more structured networks and fleet synergies as well as maintenance and engineering collaboration. This is in the midst of a wave consolidation that has swept through European aviation. Oliveira stated that "we?want to ensure that TAP has a partner that helps it amplify this growth." TAP is also?doubling down? on Brazil where it expects?to serve 15 destinations, 10 exclusively by the end of this year, Oliveira stated. Two new routes will be launched by the airline from Portugal to Brazil, one in July to Curitiba and another starting in October to Sao Luis. Reporting by Luciana Araujo and Gabriel Magalhaes in Rio de Janeiro. Editing by Manuela Andréoni.
FAA cancels San Francisco International Airport's short ground stop
The?U.S. The?U.S.
According to a FAA notice, the ground stop was from 9:53 pm to 11:15 pm PDT (0435 - 0615 GMT on Monday).
The ban was lifted a little before the end.
The airport didn't immediately respond to our request for a comment.
According to the airport's website, more than 54 million passengers will travel through SFO by 2025. The airport is home to many airlines, including United Airlines. It also offers many international flights from and to Asia.
The FAA announced in March that it would be imposing new safety restrictions on SFO. These would restrict?some landings, and cause significant delays. Gursimran K. Kaur, Bengaluru. Edited by Jacqueline Wong Thomas Derpinghaus Jamie Freed
(source: Reuters)