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The Black Sea grain trade between Russia and Ukraine has virtually ceased

The attacks on shipping have closed more than 97% Russia and Ukraine's grain export capacities in the Azov and Black Sea Basin, cutting off "a major source of low cost supplies" and driving up global prices. In the last month, the two largest grain exporters intensified their attacks on ports, shipping, and other infrastructure. This forced importers from the Middle East and Africa to look for grain in more expensive suppliers, such as Australia or the United States.

According to calculations based off official data and estimates by analysts, Russia and Ukraine exported together an average of 7.2 million metric tonnes of grain per month last season from terminals in the Azov region and Black Sea.

The Black Sea terminals in Ukraine are not currently shipping anything. Officials and trade sources report that the only grain terminal in Russia not shut down is a small facility located in Tuapse, with a capacity of about 160,000 tons a month.

Calculations show that the shutdowns result in a loss of 97% of grain-export capacity from last season.

Shutdowns drive up prices

"Civilian shipping in the Black Sea is virtually at a standstill," said Yevgeny Karabanov, the head of the analytical committee of the Grain Union of Kazakhstan. The Grain Union of Kazakhstan also ships grain via Russian ports.

The global wheat price has risen by about 6.5% in the last month, and is now approximately 30% higher than it was a year earlier.

Despite the fact that there is no sign of a de-escalation, traders are under pressure to ensure supplies.

Sources said that drones allegedly 'hit' several carriers this week as they loaded or prepared to load grain in Russian ports.

Analysts from Rusagrotrans (part of Demetra Holding) estimate that Russia's wheat exports in August were 1.8 million tonnes, the lowest monthly level since 2010.

According to trade sources, major?Russian grains terminals, such as NZT and NKHP in Novorossiysk were closed after a Ukrainian drone attack. KSK, Russia’s largest grain terminal, has suspended grain deliveries and exports. The Taman grain terminal also had its operations halted.

Ukrainian seaports at the Odesa hub port hub ceased to operate effectively by the end of July. Taras Vysotskyi, Agriculture Minister, said last week that no new ships had called at the port hub in Odesa as of mid-August.

Ukraine exports grain via rail to ports in Eastern Europe and the Danube River, which account for about 45% each of the shipments. The remaining 10% is transported by road.

Vysotskyi stated that if the ports remain closed, we expect to be able to reach half of our potential exports.

The Russian Federation can divert some exports to the Baltic, Caspian, and Far Eastern ports. However, longer distances and higher costs are likely. Reporting by Pavel Polityuk, Olga Popova and Gleb Stolyarov Additional reporting by Gus Trompiz and Nigel Hunt in Moscow. Editing and writing by David Goodman.

(source: Reuters)