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China's weak diesel consumption squeezes outlook for oil demand

China's plunging consumption of diesel, as usage of LNGpowered trucks grows, is weighing on domestic fuel need, with forecasters alerting of additional risks from a slow economy hobbled by a prolonged crisis in the residential or commercial property sector.

While the world's second biggest economy was long the development engine for global oil need, its peaking cravings for transport fuel, as an energy transition collects pace in a sputtering economy, is now moistening world markets.

In the 2nd quarter, international oil need development was its slowest given that late 2022, driven by a contraction in Chinese consumption, the IEA's July oil market report revealed.

Weak demand from production and building and construction is anticipated to continue the second half as the world's leading importer of oil comes to grips with a listless realty sector that binds about 70% of its family wealth, while external risks grow.

China's manufacturing sector is beginning to slow down - going by PMI figures - specifically as its 'export-led' growth model is no longer tenable, stated Zameer Yusof, principal middle distillates analyst at analytics firm Kpler.

This is a function of both relatively slow worldwide economic development, and likewise continuous U.S. tariffs on Chinese products.

As gasoline use plateaus, oil need growth in the world's. second-largest consumer is set to slow to just under 3% in 2024,. analysts state, off the previous decade's average of 4.6% and last. year's rebound of 11.7% from three years of COVID-19 curbs.

Four of 5 analysts in a Reuters survey stated they expected. second-half diesel demand to fall, between 2% and 7% on an. yearly basis, to range from 3.81 million to 4.67 million barrels. per day (bpd).

The finding comes after China's oil intake contracted. in the 2nd quarter, pushing its refiners to cut fuel output. and imports of crude.

Diesel need is the most slow sector within oil need. in the 2nd half, with significant displacement ... in the. trucking sector, said consultant Xia Shiqing of Wood Mackenzie,. which anticipates China's second-half diesel need to fall about 2%. to 3.93 million bpd.

As increasing varieties of LNG-powered trucks wear down demand for. diesel, speeding up sales of electric vehicles suggest China's. need for transport fuel is nearing its peak. Gas and. diesel make up more than 40% of the nation's oil need.

The International Energy Agency has actually been modifying down its. 2024 oil product demand forecast for China each month since. January, while consultancies such as FGE and Kpler have also. trimmed some of their need projections.

Kpler expects second-half diesel need to grow by 4%. every year, a downgrade from its previous forecast, including that it. may even more cut its forecast in future.

In a note to customers, FGE experts said, Despite the end of. peak refinery upkeep, persistently weak diesel demand and a. downturn in gasoline usage supplied little reward for. refiners to increase.

They added, There is no pressing need for more products (of. the fuels) in the domestic market.

FGE changed its diesel need forecast downwards to a year. on year decrease of 5% in the second half, versus a drop of 1.2%. previously.

SHIFT TO LNG

Traditional fuel usage is slowing as sales of trucks running. on LNG soared 307% to 152,000 in 2015, information from Chinese. details supplier CV World showed.

An LNG-fueled truck costs about 80,000 yuan ($ 11,021) more. than a similarly-powered diesel truck, but fuel cost savings allow. the expenditure to be recouped in about 190 days, research firm. Horizon Insights stated.

Woodmac estimates fuel for an LNG heavy-duty truck costs. about 1.7 yuan a km, less than diesel's cost of 2.8 yuan. Each. LNG truck displaces 13 metric heaps (97 barrels) of annual diesel. need, the consultancy stated.

Kpler approximates LNG will displace 140,000 bpd of diesel in. the period from May to December, while FGE forecasts 110,000 bpd. to 120,000 bpd of diesel displacement from LNG in both 2024 and. 2025.

LNG-based trucks might make up nearly a tenth of the. heavy-duty truck fleet by 2025, state analysts at information. intelligence company ICIS.

FUEL, JET FUEL

Gasoline need, which accounts for a fifth of China's oil. intake, is expected to broaden partially in the 2nd. half, forecasts say, as EV sales continue to grow.

Rystad and Woodmac expect annual development of 1.2% and 1%. respectively, to 3.45 million bpd and 3.97 million bpd, in the. second half, while FGE anticipates need to remain flat.

Longzhong expects second-half demand to shrink 3.52% on the. year to 3.87 million bpd, as EVs represented nearly 40% of vehicle. sales in the 2nd quarter.

Fuel demand is now at the last leg of growth and upside. is restricted from next year, said Mia Geng, FGE's head of China. oil analysis, who forecasts intake to plateau within 12 to. 18 months.

Air travel fuel is the primary development sector for China's refined. fuel use, thanks to pent-up travel need, with experts. forecasting on-year growth of 8% to 15%, to between 870,000 bpd. to 1.04 million bpd, in the second half.

The number of domestic flights is already 10% higher than. before the pandemic, while international flights have recuperated. to 75%, WoodMac's Xia said, including that second-half need. ought to close 30,000 bpd greater than in the very same 2019 duration.

Although China has actually presented a raft of visa-free procedures. because December to further promote incoming travel demand,. foreign arrivals stood at simply 14.6 million in the very first half,. online travel bureau Trip.com stated.

That suggests bookings need to more than double in the 2nd. half to match 2019's figure of 49.1 million overseas visitors.

Reflecting weak need, Chinese refinery throughput in the. first half was down 0.4% on the year at 360.09 million metric. lots (14.44 million bpd), official information revealed, with Sinopec,. Asia's largest refiner, cutting diesel output 8.8% as domestic. sales of refined fuel fell 2.5%.

FGE expects refinery go to drop 200,000 bpd annually in. the 2nd half to 14.7 million bpd, while Kpler forecasts crude. intake averaging 15.9 million bpd from July to December, little bit. changed from 15.81 million bpd a year previously.

(source: Reuters)