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Is the US Uranium Market about to go Nuclear in 2026? Maguire

The market for uranium, the primary fuel in nuclear power plants, is becoming tighter as reactor construction increases. This is setting up a price rally for uranium this year.

Data from Canadian uranium mining company Cameco showed that U.S. spot uranium prices in 2025 ended at $82 per pound, a rise of $10 or 12 percent compared to the end 2024.

This is a far cry from the increase of over 100% that was seen in the 2025 share prices of major uranium producers and fuel suppliers, whose shares soared due to the U.S. Government's efforts to restart nuclear power production.

While equities linked to the "nuclear supply" chain are likely to continue to be popular with investors, the industry is now focusing on the state of uranium which is experiencing a growing structural deficit due to consumption exceeding production.

The uranium shortage is being exacerbated by the surge in demand for electricity due to the AI-driven boom in data centres, as well as the construction of modular reactors. This is especially true in the U.S., where the mine supply has been at historic lows over the last decade.

The U.S. mine uranium production is increasing again, but it is still only expected to be 1 million pounds in comparison to the 50 million pounds consumed annually by the U.S.

The mismatch between supply and demand is causing the U.S. price of uranium to rise, which could intensify by 2026.

While spot prices are still below $90 per pound, executives who track discussions between mine suppliers?and power?generators?have noted that long-term contracts for pricing are closer to $100.

If deals are confirmed above or at the psychologically important $100 mark - which was last consistently exceeded in 2007 – that could help spark new momentum in spot markets and establish uranium among 2026's most exciting markets.

STOCKS DRAWDOWN

In recent years, the U.S. supply deficit of uranium was filled by imports from the secondary market. This includes stockpiles at utility companies, decommissioned warheads, and material left over in enrichment plants.

The increased purchases of utilities and government agencies has now reduced those secondary supplies. In addition, restrictions on future uranium exports from a belligerent Russia (which will be prohibited in 2028) have also narrowed sources for imports.

The combination of reduced stockpiles in the local secondary market, and import restrictions has increased the focus on the spot-market and any new but uncontracted outputs from uranium mining.

Investors' increased uranium purchase is further tightening the supply imbalance, and they are another driver of positive market sentiment.

The Sprott Physical Uranium Trust's (SPUT) holdings of uranium, the largest fund in the world that stocks physical uranium, increased by 9 millions pounds to reach a record high of 72.5 million pounds by 2025.

Investor holdings of nuclear fuel, which is needed to power the sector, are expected to grow as the fleet grows and more reactors start up. This will give prices a boost.

Record Nuclear Generation

The world's output of nuclear electricity is likely to reach a record by 2025 after several major nuclear power plants reached all-time highs or multi-year peaks.

Data from the energy think tank Ember revealed that nuclear-powered electricity supply in China, India South Korea and France will all rise to their highest levels for at least five year in 2025.

The nuclear power industry in Japan has recovered after the Fukushima disaster in 2011. It is expected to continue growing in 2026 when the world's biggest reactor will be restarted in Niigata Prefecture.

In 2026, new nuclear reactors will also be operational in China, India Turkey and the United States, which will help to boost total nuclear power production to new record highs.

Power Pipeline

Europe is home to the majority of nuclear power reactors in the world, with 39% located there.

Global Energy Monitor data shows that Europe has a nuclear power generation capacity of around 157,000 megawatts.

Asia has the second largest nuclear footprint, with 120,000 MW. North America follows closely behind at 117,000 MW.

The nuclear pipeline is dominated by Asia, with 82,000 MW reactors being built globally, but 66,000 MW in Asia.

Asia is also home to two-thirds (or 67%) of all nuclear power plants that are in pre-construction. This means the sites have already been chosen and permits obtained, but crews still haven't broken ground.

GEM data shows that 107,000 MW of power is in the pre-construction stage around the world. This includes 60,000 MW Asia, 36,000 in Europe, 8,0 MW North America, and 4,000 in Africa.

Asia will become the main nuclear power hub in the world once the plants under construction or in pre-construction have been completed. This batch has around 246,000 MW out of the total 590,000MW nuclear power generation capacity.

China is the leader in the nuclear sector with a capacity of around 65,000 megawatts, followed by India at 32,000 megawatts.

Around 8,000 MW in the United States are in development. This would, when completed, represent a roughly 7 % increase in installed nuclear capacity.

It is possible that, due to the aggressive policies being implemented in the U.S. Nuclear Sector, additional capacity plans may be developed in the future.

This will in turn tighten up the country's supply of uranium and keep the price of uranium prone to surges for the foreseeable. These are the opinions of the columnist, who is also an author.

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(source: Reuters)