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Grid operator's forecasts: Swedish power flows will change direction in 2029

Transmission system operator (TSO), the country's TSO, said that the flow of electricity, which traditionally runs from north to southern, will reverse from 2029, due to a projected increase in industrial activity to the north.

Svenska kraftnat, which presented its latest market analysis, said that the majority of Sweden's wind and hydro power is located in the north and is traditionally sent to southern Sweden where electricity consumption was highest.

"But as most of the new electricity-intensive industries are established in northern Sweden, this means a reduced electricity surplus," Daniel Gustafsson, head of power system at the TSO said in a statement.

He added that the trend shows that in 2029, the flow of electricity from Sweden's SE1 zone to SE2 (the northernmost price zone) will reverse and flow instead northwards.

The report concluded that higher consumption in northern Sweden would also increase power prices, while prices in southern Sweden are expected to decline due to expectations of lower prices for power in continental Europe.

The abundance of cheap renewable energy in northern Sweden has attracted energy-intensive industries, such as steel and base metal producers. They are looking to reduce their carbon footprint by using electric or hydrogen technologies.

Svenska kraftnat, in its latest analysis, has revised its demand forecast as new businesses are slower to take off.

Svenska kraftnat has revised its estimate for 2028 to 165 terawatt-hours (TWh), which is 15 TWh lower than the previous estimate but still higher than this year's forecast of 139 TWh.

The capacity of Swedish electricity generation is expected to increase from 51,015 Megawatts (MW) in 2020 to 59.323 MW by 2028. Reporting by Nora Buli and editing by Terje Solsvik

(source: Reuters)