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A regulator warns that a large part of North America could face power shortages this summer.

A changing mix of energy supplies is increasing reliability risks in the middle of the U.S.

The North American Electricity Reliability Corporation reported that the demand for electricity in the United States has increased by 10 gigawatts, more than double the increase of last year. This is due to the retirement of fossil-fired energy sources and the rapid growth of solar power.

As electricity demand increases from data centers, manufacturing, and electrification in industries such as transportation, power generation sources on the North American grid shift from 24/7 power plants, like coal and nukes, to intermittent supplies from renewables like solar and winds.

According to NERC this change poses new challenges to grid reliability in the summer when energy-hungry air conditioners threaten to drain resources from the grid, causing power shortages.

ERCOT will test the grid in the evenings, when the demand for electricity increases, but the solar output decreases.

John Moura, NERC, said during the annual Summer Reliability Assessment call that "when the sun goes down and that time period of late evening or early morning, there is a potential for failure."

Low wind power production could upset the balance between supply and demand in the Southwest Power Pool. This pool covers Montana, New Mexico, and Nebraska. MISO, the major Midwestern grid operator, will have less supply this year than last, as 1,575 megawatts in natural gas and coal generation has been retired since last summer.

New England, a region that is outlier, is also at risk.

Since last summer, North America is expected to retire more than 7 gigawatts in fossil-fired energy generation. This includes coal and natural gas. NERC's report states that, at the same time, as these 24/7 power supplies retire, 30 gigawatts solar capacity and 13 gigawatts battery storage capacity have been added to the continent in the past year.

Moura, the NERC reliability assessment and system analyst, explained that to avoid shortages during summer, both the U.S.

Moura: "As the demand increases, we need to build infrastructure."

(source: Reuters)