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Analysts say that PJM's plan could speed up data center power deals

Analysts said that a plan by PJM Interconnection - the largest power grid operator of the U.S. - to manage the?burgeoning demand for power from data centers may accelerate the deal-making process between data-center operators and independent?power providers.

The plan released last month outlines a framework in which large power users could either?bring their own generation to the grid or operate within a "connect and manage" framework, that would allow them to reduce their energy usage before other emergency measures are taken when the system becomes overloaded.

The proposal would also expedite a backstop capacity auction in order to prevent shortages throughout PJM’s footprint.

While parts of the proposal will need regulatory approval, analysts said the "bring-your-own-generation" element could particularly boost deals between data-center owners and power producers.

James West, Melius Research's managing director, said: "I expect to see a flurry major data center/power deals announced in the coming months by independent power producers and data center owners, as well as big tech companies."

The Power to Demand New Records

PJM has made its proposal as the U.S. demand for electricity continues to rise. According to the Energy Information Administration’s January outlook, power consumption will rise again in 2026 and 2027 after reaching a record for a second consecutive year in 2025. This is due in part to rapid growth of artificial intelligence.

This surge in demand has already forced data-center operators into securing long-term power supplies.

Talen Energy and Amazon Web Services expanded their partnership last year to provide data centers up to 1,920 Megawatts of nuclear power. Constellation Energy also struck a deal with Meta Platforms for the operation of one of its reactors for another 20 years.

Anthropic, Microsoft and others have announced initiatives to reduce the impact of data centres on consumer electricity prices.

PJM announced last month that it had started discussions about creating a backstop to help meet the growing demand for power in its area.

President Donald Trump's administration has separately asked the grid operator for an emergency auction to boost supply.

Analysts say the possibility of being dragged into the proposed backstop system gives data centers an increased incentive to seek?bilateral agreements with power producers.

Andrew Rocco is a stock strategist with Zacks Investment Research. He said that data centers without their own energy may still end up paying to generate new?energy.

He added that the "pay-or play" dynamic made direct deals with IPPs attractive and hedgeable than exposures to volatile PJM capacities prices.

Several analysts expect the proposal to also spur consolidation in power sector as smaller developers might lack the capital required to?navigate PJM’s potential new requirements.

Rocco stated that "we expect larger IPPs like Vistra, Constellation, or Talen to acquire smaller developers in order to create "mega sites" that package land and power, as well as fiber."

Constellation Energy refused to comment while Vistra, Talen Energy and Talen Energy didn't respond to comments.

Analysts warned, however, of potential obstacles to implementing the plan, such as state level approvals and challenges with permits.

Rick Pederson is the chief strategy officer of Bow River Capital. He said that a "flurry" of deals will be limited by obstacles in getting IPP infrastructure approved and operational, as well as a queue for interconnects. Reporting by Kavya Baliaraman and Sumit Saha, editing by Nathan Crooks & Saumyadeb Chkrabarty

(source: Reuters)