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Bousso: Mideast oil shock signals a supply crunch.
The U.S. and Israeli war against Iran has caused a sudden and acute disruption in Middle East oil supply, forcing buyers to use every barrel available. This is quickly destroying?forecasts that an oil glut would occur this year. The International Energy Agency predicted in February that the global oil supply will exceed the demand by 3.7 million barrels a day (bpd). This surplus would continue into 2026. One month later, this projection seems redundant. After the near-complete closing of the Strait of Hormuz, nearly 15 million barrels per day of crude oil production and another 4.5 millions barrels per day of refined fuels are effectively stuck in the Gulf. The chokepoint closed shortly after the launch on February 28 of a joint U.S. and Israeli aerial bombing 'campaign' against?Iran. Tehran responded by attacking Gulf states, regional energy infrastructure, and other Gulf countries. Losing such a large volume of oil - almost a fifth the global daily consumption – has caused shockwaves in the oil markets and wider economy. Brent crude, the global benchmark, surged over $90 per barrel on Friday. This is a gain of nearly 30% in the last week since the conflict began. Asia, whose crude imports come from the Middle East at around 60%, has been hit the hardest. To conserve feedstocks, refineries and petrochemicals in the Middle East have reduced production or closed their doors. Other energy-intensive industries such as ceramics, car manufacturing, and others are also facing severe shortages. It is impossible to know how long the conflict and the Hormuz shut down will last. The pressure on the oil chain is increasing, not decreasing, with every passing day. You are running out of time and space The Gulf producers have run out of options. Crude is being pushed to offshore and onshore tanks due to the blockage of exports. Iraq has a limited number of storage options and has already stopped at least one quarter of its production of 4.3 million barrels per day. Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia - the world's biggest exporter - have some storage capacity left – but it is measured in days not weeks. Saudi Arabia and UAE are able to divert crude oil through other export routes but this only partly offsets the loss of Hormuz. Storage?fills up, forcing more refineries to idle and reduce output as storage fills. It is difficult to shut down oil fields in a safe manner. It can take weeks or even days to restart them and reach full production. This will have a far greater impact on the market than any eventual reopening. Refiners, particularly in Asia, are scrambling to get barrels. TAPING AVAILABLE STOCK The good news is that inventories have been increasing in recent months thanks to increased production from producers, including OPEC. According to the IEA, global oil inventories increased by 1.3m bpd or 477m barrels in 2025. This is their highest level since march 2021. Kpler data shows that around 80 million barrels are stored on tankers in the ocean, and nearly two thirds of them are in Asia. Most buyers are unable to access a large portion of this "floating storage", as it comes from Iran, Venezuela, and Russia. All three countries are subject to Western sanctions. Around 50 million barrels of Iranian crude are alone. But some of this oil is beginning to move. On Thursday, the U.S. granted India a waiver for buying Russian crude in order to assist refiners. New Delhi cut its imports sharply last month in accordance with a deal reached with Washington. By March 6, the amount of Russian crude oil in floating storage had already dropped from 7,7 million barrels, just before the Iranian strikes. Independent Chinese refiners are expected to take the majority of Iranian barrels located outside of the Gulf, or those that can get through the Strait. Middle East producers will almost certainly draw on their overseas stock to meet contractual obligations. If the disruption continues, governments will be under increasing pressure to tap into their own reserves. OECD member countries hold strategic petroleum reserves that were created in the 1970s to cope with supply shocks. According to IEA regulations, countries that import oil net must have stocks equal to 90 days' worth of imports. The U.S. is the world's biggest oil consumer and producer. It currently has more than 400,000,000 barrels in its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. This is well below the 700 million barrels that it can hold, but since it is not a net importer of energy, there is little risk in reducing its reserves. China is the biggest unknown. According to the IEA, Beijing quietly accumulated vast reserves of oil in recent years. It added an average amount of 300,000 bpd just last year. It hasn't announced any plans to release the stocks yet, but it has told refiners to reduce fuel exports. CRISIS UNPRECEDENTED Global reserves are limited, even though they were plentiful at the beginning of this crisis. This is a shock that has never been experienced before: the Strait of Hormuz was completely blocked for the first time. Even if the Strait of Hormuz were to be reopened tomorrow it would take weeks to restore finely calibrated supply chain and rebalance markets. If some Gulf oil production was diverted, it would take more than 100,000,000 barrels of stored oil to offset a disruption in supply of 15 million bpd. A prolonged outage at that rate would quickly erode global inventories. Paul Horsnell is an independent oil analyst. He said, "It's very difficult for stock to compensate for flows. Especially when the reduction in flows is that large." In the event that stocks are depleted then governments and traders will need to replenish them. This would mean a higher demand for oil, and higher prices in the next year. Middle East supply shock has already flipped expectations of a glut to a scenario that is more realistic: undersupply. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Sources say that Gol will launch new long-haul routes out of Rio using A330s.
According to sources familiar with plans, Brazilian airline Gol is expected to announce on Friday that the 'Galeao International Airport' in Rio de Janeiro will be the hub for the new Airbus A330900 aircraft joining its fleet. Gol operated only Boeing 737 aircraft up until now. The airline will receive five A330-900s initially, which are wide-body aircraft that can fly routes up to 15 hours long. Between 2026 and 2027, the planes will be gradually integrated into the fleet of the company. Sources said that the new aircraft would be primarily used for long-haul routes in North America and Europe. They added that New York and Florida were among the destinations considered by the airline. A 'person,' who requested anonymity as the plans were not yet publicized, said Gol had sought a?slot in several major European Cities, including Porto, and?London. Gol declined to comment on plans.
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Slovakia amends Gazprom contract to increase Russian imports ahead of EU ban
SPP, Slovakia's national?gas?company?, amended its long-term?contract?with Gazprom? to align it with European regulation and continue to import Russian?gas?, it announced on Friday. After talks, sources claimed that the discussions were to increase volumes before an EU prohibition on Russian?gas? kicks in later next year. EU gas prices have increased by 50% in the last week, after Qatar stopped exporting liquefied gas following U.S., Israeli and Tehran's response to U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran. SPP started?the discussions before the conflict erupted. SPP stated that the amendment was intended to align the long-term contracts with the EU RePowerEU? plan to wean the EU off Russian energy. SPP said in a press release that "this commercial solution will allow SPP to utilize the current most competitive source of gas." SPP stated in November that it only received one-third its gas supply for 2025 from Russia as of this date, after transit through Ukraine ended on December 20, 2024. SPP had been importing most of its 3?billion cubic metre annual gas imports from Russia. If the talks are successful, two sources familiar with the situation said that?the company may increase its Russian purchases up to 100% of what it needs until 2027. SPP has not commented on volume. Last year, Slovakia switched to import Russian gas via Turkey but capacity constraints restricted the flows. SPP covers approximately two-thirds (two-thirds) of Slovak Gas Demand. Gazprom refused to comment. EU regulations prohibit countries from increasing the contract volume for Russian gas in order to punish Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. However, they do allow certain necessary amendments to current deals. A source stated that the discussions included "large volumes" of unspecified contract changes. The source said that any amendment would require an EU exemption, which the Slovak Economy Ministry will assess. The?ministry didn't?respond to an inquiry for comment. EU states are required to stop Russian LNG imports before the end of 2026. However, pipeline flows may continue up until November 1, 2027 if a country struggles to fill its storage with non-Russian natural gas. Sources said that SPP is exploring options to potentially import LNG, mainly via Poland, Germany and Italy, after November 1, 2020. A source said that the company had received about?20 bids for non-Russian natural gas after 2027. Slovakia and Hungary are also exempted from the EU's ban on purchasing Russian oil because of the difficulty in obtaining alternative supplies. However, recent damage to the Druzhba pipe has disrupted imports. Jan Lopatka and Marek Strzelecki reported from Prague and Warsaw, with additional reporting by Kate Abnett and Vladimir Soldatkin in Brussels. Mark Potter and Matthew Lewis edited the article.
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Shenzhen Zhaowei Machinery & Electronics raises 244,3 million dollars in Hong Kong listing
Shenzhen 'Zhaowei Machinery & Electronics, a Chinese provider of micro-drives and actuation system, announced on?Friday that it had?set the final offer price? for its Hong Kong IPO. The company raised HK$1.91billion ($244.25m) through the listing. The Shenzhen listed company sold 26,7 million H shares for HK$71.28 each, which was below the maximum price of HK$73.68 per share disclosed last week. This offering continues a 'brisk start for Hong Kong's IPO activities in 2026. In January, companies such as Eastroc Beverage or Muyuan Foods sought listings in the city. Hong Kong's stock -market had its best start to a new year since 2021. IPOs raised?about $5 billion in the first month, which is the highest since January 2021 when $7.6 billion was raised. Zhaowei began its Hong Kong share sale on 27 February, joining a number of other companies looking to list in the city after the Lunar New Year break. The company announced last week that it would use the net proceeds of?the offering to fund research and development, as well as expand global capacity. Alsco Pooling Service, a reusable packaging provider, finalised its?listing on the Hong Kong bourse on Friday. It raised HK$223.7million. Shenzhen's MeiG - Smart Technology listed its shares in the city for HK$28.86 each. According to the exchange filings, these three companies have raised HK$3.14billion in total. Zhaowei, Alsco and MeiG are expected to start trading on the Hong Kong stock exchange Monday. Reporting by Nikita Marie Jino, Bengaluru. Editing by Vijay Kishore.
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As flights to the Middle East cease, governments plan repatriations
Commercial flights have been grounded in some parts of the Middle East due to an escalating conflict after U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran. This has left foreigners stranded and prompted governments to plan for repatriations. Here is what government officials, airlines and governments have said regarding repatriation plans. AUSTRIA Austria's Foreign Ministry?said that it had helped 117 vulnerable citizens leave the UAE and Israel through neighbouring countries and planned a charter flight for?170 passengers from Muscat on 4 March. It warned, however, that travellers would have to take land departures at their own risk. BULGARIA GullivAir and Bulgaria Air, as well as the State Aviation Operator, returned Bulgarians from Dubai and Abu Dhabi on March '4 and '5 including a GullivAir flight with 326 seats from Dubai and a Bulgaria Air Boeing 737 via Oman. A 90-seat government plane from Abu Dhabi was also included. CZECH REPUBLIC According to CTK and government officials and the Czech news agency, three flights have been organised from Oman, Jordan, and Egypt for 175 people who are stranded. ESTONIA On March 4, the Estonian foreign ministry announced that it had organized a flight from Muscat to Oman on March 5. This would be open to Estonian citizens living in Oman or the United Arab Emirates. EUROPEAN UNION The European Commission announced that it is now coordinating the repatriation of citizens under the EU Civil Protection Mechanism, as more and more member countries request assistance to evacuate their citizens from the Middle East. Austria, Belgium Bulgaria, Cyprus Czech Republic, France Italy Luxembourg, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovakia are the countries that have activated this mechanism. A spokesperson for the EU said that ten flights with over 1,000 EU citizens had already landed in Europe. FINLAND The?foreign minister said that Finland would organise one single flight to bring home the approximately 3,000 Finns currently living in the United Arab Emirates. The flight will leave Muscat, Oman on 8 March. Finnair announced on 6 March that it would be operating flights from Muscat in Oman to Helsinki, to help customers stranded at Dubai get home. The first flight will take place on March 10 with additional flights scheduled later in the week. FRANCE The French Foreign Minister said that several flights to bring back French nationals who are estimated to number around 400,000 in the area were scheduled for March 4. France has deployed consular teams to Israel's border with Egypt and Jordan in order to facilitate the land exits for people who want to fly onward. A similar mechanism has been put in place in the UAE, at the borders with Oman, Saudi Arabia and Oman, where airspace remains open. GERMANY Johoann Wadephul, German Foreign Minister, announced that two more flights, each carrying about 250 passengers, are planned for the 5th and 6th of March from the Gulf after the first flight landed in Frankfurt on March 5. The commercial air traffic has increased, and Germany is evaluating how it can offer more support. GREECE Greece announced on 6 March that it had repatriated on 5 March 315 nationals who were in Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Jerusalem. Earlier this week, 162 people had returned to the Middle East. HUNGARY The foreign ministry of Hungary said that 87 people had been repatriated from Amman in Jordan on March 4. Another flight carrying 88 passengers is scheduled for March 5. On March 6, a flight will depart from Sharm es Sheik in Egypt. Hungary signed a deal with Flydubai to rent a plane on March 5 and 6 for Hungarians returning from Dubai. On March 7 and 8, Hungary will be departing from Riyadh in Saudi Arabia with two flights. The Italian Foreign Ministry said that about 2,500 Italians had returned from Abu Dhabi and Riyadh on commercial flights organized by the ministry. The consulate has increased its staff in Oman and in the UAE, and it is also coordinating the return of large groups from the UAE, and other transiting via land through Qatar Kuwait Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. Additional Italians living in Oman Israel the Maldives, Thailand and Oman are receiving assistance or being given priority for transport. Netherlands The Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that repatriation from the Middle East would resume on 6 March. Flights include a KLM flight to the Omani capital Muscat and a TUI service from Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt. POLAND Operational Command of the Polish Armed Forces reported that the first group of Polish citizens evacuated from the Middle East by military airlift arrived in Poland early on 6 March morning. PORTUGAL The foreign ministry of Portugal said that a charter TAP flight carrying 140 Portuguese and eight foreigners would land at Lisbon at 11 am local time on March 6th. ROMANIA The Romanian Foreign Ministry announced on 4 March that FlyDubai had scheduled two flights from Dubai to Bucharest for March 4 and 5. The ministry has received over 3,000 requests for repatriation and there are around 16,000 Romanians in the region. SERBIA Air Serbia's flight from Sharm el-Sheikh landed at Belgrade in the early hours of March 4 with 67 passengers. All were evacuated from Israel. SLOVAKIA The Slovakian government has "conducted six repatriation flight with 248 passengers. Of these, 189 were Slovaks and the remainder of different nationalities. The Foreign Ministry announced late Thursday that eight additional evacuation flights from Jordan, Oman, and Saudi Arabia were scheduled by the end the week. SLOVENIA The prime minister's office announced that on March 3 four buses were organized by Slovenia to transport Slovenian citizens, including families with children, from Dubai to Muscat Airport in Oman. Two more flights are scheduled for the afternoon and evening of March 4. Jose Manuel Albares, the Foreign Minister of Spain, announced on March 3 that Spain had begun to evacuate its citizens from the Middle East. On March 3, evening, more than 175 Spanish citizens arrived in Abu Dhabi via Istanbul. Further flights are expected to arrive from the UAE. Albares said that Spain would also reinforce its embassies located in the UAE and Saudi Arabia to support and facilitate future repatriations. SWEDEN Sweden will charter an aircraft to bring 180 Swedes back home who have been identified as vulnerable. The flight is scheduled to leave Dubai on 7 March. THAILAND Thailand will evacuate its citizens from Iran to Turkey by land on 7th and 10th March, while those stranded are either returning to their home countries or will do so once the airspace is reopened. UNITED ARAB EMIRATES State news agency WAM reports that the UAE Civil Aviation Authority will start operating "special flight" across all airports in the country to assist some of the tens and thousands of passengers stuck in the region. UNITED KINGDOM The British Foreign Office announced that British chartered flight will leave Oman on 5 March after technical delays on 4 March, prioritising vulnerable UK citizens who want to depart the region.
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The Middle East turmoil may delay the delivery of overseas votes for the Danish election.
Denmark's Government said on Friday that the ongoing turmoil in the Middle East may prevent some overseas votes from being counted in the country's general election of March 24. The war in Iran has caused major disruptions to global air travel, including the closure of Middle Eastern hubs such as Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi. This has left passengers and cargo stranded. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that under these circumstances, it could not guarantee that postal ballots cast in countries affected will arrive on time for general elections. It said that the risk was for 'votes cast' in countries of 'the Middle East' and potentially in Asia, where mail passes through the Middle East on its route to Europe. The ministry didn't say how many Danes were expected to vote overseas. (Reporting and editing by Terje Slsvik, Anna Ringstrom)
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Causeway Capital, an activist investor, raises its stake in Wizz Air
Causeway Capital Management increased its stake in Wizz Air from 4.98% to 5.04%. A regulatory filing was filed on Friday. This puts the activist investor among the top investors of the European budget airline. According to the filing, the investor had increased its stake in Wizz Air from 2.04% to a total of 5.16% on Wednesday. The 'carrier' warned Wednesday that the Middle East conflict would likely reduce its net profit by 50 million euros for fiscal year 2026. This is on top of pressures due to engine groundings, and a softening in demand. Since the conflict began, its shares have fallen steadily. They hit a new record low on Friday of 915 pence. Causeway, a Los Angeles-based company, did not respond immediately to a comment request. Causeway, Britain's largest shareholder, backed WH 'Smith's decision earlier this year to appoint Leo Quinn, former Balfour Beatty CEO, as executive 'chair' in a leadership revamp. In 2021 the investor had urged Rolls-Royce, as one of its largest shareholders, to restructure the board. Wizz Air announced a separate?on? Friday that it had received permits for flights to the U.S.A. from the UK. This?opened the door to offering charter 'flights? to European football teams and fans attending soccer World Cup. Reporting by Nithyashree R B in Bengaluru and Raechel Thankam Job; editing by Shilpi Magumdar
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Russian Urals oil prices top Brent for the first time on Indian market, traders claim
The price of Russian Urals oil in Indian ports is higher than the Brent benchmark for the first ever time, fueled by the increased demand due to the Iran War, traders reported on Friday. The U.S. and Israeli war against Iran?which started a week back has?choked Strait of Hormuz - the'main route for oil in the world. Since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, in 2022, Russian oil has traded in Indian ports at a discount by several U.S. Dollars per barrel compared to Brent. This is because Russia diverted its oil sales to Asia following the EU's embargo against Russian sales. In recent years, Indian refiners used Russian oil to make their feedstock. The Kremlin announced on Friday that the war in Iran had fueled a significant increase in demand for Russian gas and oil. Reports on Thursday said that traders are selling Russian Urals at a premium to Brent of $4 to $5 per barrel upon delivery at Indian ports between March and April. This is after the United States granted Indian refiners waivers to resume buying Russian oil. Calculations showed that the grade's discount on Brent at the Russian Baltic Sea Port of Primorsk has narrowed by?about $5 per barrel, to?around $ 20 per barrel on a FOB basis (free on board), on Friday. The price of Russian Urals oil has risen by 50% in the last week, from $45.7 to $68.6 per barrel FOB Primorsk. According to LSEG, Urals oil has now surpassed the G7 price limit of $60 per barrel in the port of loading. It is also above the new EU price cap at $44.10 per barrel. The G7 and EU price cap were both imposed after Russia's invasion in Ukraine. This means that sellers of Russian oil who are above these caps cannot use Western shipping services and insurance. INCREASING COSTS CAN IMPACT PROFIT Two traders say that the rising costs of freight will reduce profits for Russian oil sellers. It costs $15 million to charter an Aframax vessel with a deadweight around 100,000 metric tonnage to transport oil from Russian Baltic ports to India. This is an increase of around $10-$12 millions in February. The cost of cargoes loaded from the Russian Black Sea port Novorossiysk - which resumed loadings on Friday following recent drone damage - is lower than at Baltic ports, at $13million, traders reported. Calculations show that the discount for Russian Urals loaded from Novorossiysk FOB for India has risen to $14 per barrel against dated Brent. This is up $10 per barrel from previous estimates. Reporting by Elaine Hardcastle; Editing by Susan Fenton and Elaine Hardcastle
The Kremlin claims that the war in Iran is driving up demand for Russian energy
The Kremlin announced?on Friday?that?the war against Iran has fueled demand for Russian energy. This comes a day after U.S. Treasury granted India a waiver of 30 days to purchase Russian oil that is currently "stuck" at sea.
As the conflict entered its seventh?day on Friday, the Strait of Hormuz - a vital shipping?passage - was all but closed, and countries around the globe were cut off from global oil and LNG supplies.
Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesperson, told reporters that Russia is a reliable source of oil and natural gas via pipelines as well as in liquefied forms. The war in Iran is causing a dramatic increase in the demand for Russian energy. Peskov, a reporter at the time, said that Russia is a reliable source of both gas and oil. This includes pipeline gas as well as liquefied natural gas.
"It is also capable of guaranteeing continuity for all?deliverys' for which contracts were concluded."
Peskov refused to reveal possible volumes of Russian crude oil supplied to India after Washington's waiver. This was a result of months of U.S. pressuring New Delhi to not buy Russian oil.
(source: Reuters)