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Think tank: High oil prices will not save Russian growth

A think tank near the government stated on Monday that high?global oil?prices will not boost Russian economic growth in this year, as new sanctions from the West and drone attacks by Ukraine weigh on crude output and exports.

TsMAKP, an influential think tank, has lowered its forecast of gross domestic product growth. The pressures have led to lower than expected outputs for Russia's primary export commodity by 2026.

Many analysts had predicted that Russia would benefit from the increase in oil prices after the U.S., Israel and Iran attacks and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

The forecast for Russian oil exports and petroleum products in 2026-2029 was revised to the?downward. In this year's exports, Russia will likely be down on 2025, TsMAKP analysts stated in a report, without divulging the actual numbers due to confidentiality.

In updating the external conditions of the baseline scenario for?Russia's Socio-Economic Development, the main considerations were the risks of decreased production and, therefore, exports from Russia of hydrocarbons due to new attacks against port infrastructure and oil refining.

Only one month earlier, they had cut their GDP growth predictions for this year from 0.9% to 1.3% to 0.5% and 0.7%.

Officially, the government predicts growth at 1.3%. However, officials have stated that this number is optimistic and will be revised. Later this month, new government forecasts will be released.

The Russian economy shrank by 0.3% during the first quarter of this year, marking its first quarterly decline since early 2023. Last month, President Vladimir Putin asked his top officials to come up new ideas to boost the economy.

According to a report published last month, Russia had to cut oil production in April due to drone attacks by Ukraine on ports and refineries as well as the halting of crude oil supplies via the only remaining Russian pipeline into Europe.

Last week, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov announced that the state budget'received windfall oil revenue of 200 billion roubles thanks to higher oil price. He claimed that the windfall oil revenues made up for the shortfall of the previous two month. (Reporting and writing by Darya Kosunskaya, Editing by Andrew Heavens).

(source: Reuters)