Latest News

Could Asia be the unexpected winner of the fallout after the Iran war? : Raychaudhuri

Asia is the most vulnerable area in the Iran War due to its heavy reliance upon Middle East oil and gas. But it could be the biggest winner as a result of several long-term tendencies this conflict will likely accelerate. These include higher cybersecurity investments, the pivoting away from fossil fuels, and supply chain diversification. Energy-intensive economies in the region, led by China and Japan, South Korea and India, are heavily dependent on Middle Eastern gas and oil. Around 80% of the oil and 90% of the gas that transits through 'the Strait of Hormuz is destined for Asian market. Energy prices in the region have risen sharply since'most vessels' were unable to transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

China, with its huge stockpiles of food, has been relatively protected from shortages and rationing in other countries.

Even though the crisis has exposed Asia's vulnerability to energy, it could also be speeding up structural changes that are in favour of the region on the long-term.

BUILDING ASIAN ARSENAL

The war is likely to increase the push for increased defense spending globally, as well as Asia’s drive towards greater self-sufficiency in defence. Asian contractors may have an edge over their Western counterparts due to the region's high-quality semiconductor and manufacturing supply chain. Hanwha Aerospace formerly LIG Nex1, LIG Defense & Aerospace and Hyundai Rotem are three Korean arms manufacturers that have attracted investor interest in the past year because of their high earnings growth expectations and large order backlogs. The growing penetration of European markets could further increase their market dominance. The Iran conflict as well as the Russia-Ukraine War have both highlighted the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness "new" weapons, particularly?drones. According to Technavio, the global military drones market is expected nearly double from $15.3 billion to $29 billion between 2030 and 2025.

Technavio predicts a similar growth in the Asia military drone market. This is dominated by Chinese aerospace giants, who are state-backed. By leveraging their scale of production, cost-effectiveness and product range, the region's manufacturers can compete with U.S. and Israeli rivals.

CHIPS, CYBER & AI

Asia's cyber ambitions are at the center of a global race. They are fueled by rapid digitalization, government-led investments, massive hardware manufacturing capabilities, and artificial intelligence-powered defenses. According to the World Economic Forum (WEF) January survey, geopolitically motivated attacks on corporations are today's biggest risk.

The WEF survey reveals that most companies believe AI will have the greatest impact on cybersecurity over the next year.

AI appears to be doing exactly that. Anthropic's Mythos, a model?reportedly capable of identifying vulnerabilities in software at scale, illustrates the offensive potential as well as the defensive imperative. In order to remain one step ahead of the AI arms race, the U.S. and other countries may be compelled to increase their domestic manufacturing. The demand for Korean and Taiwanese semi-conductors is likely to continue indefinitely.

The Energy Pivot

The Iran War may have a positive impact on the energy sector, encouraging more countries to move away from fossil fuels and towards electric vehicles, energy storage, and green energy in general. China's dominance of the EV batteries market will make it a disproportionately large winner. SNE Research reports that Chinese manufacturers are responsible for more than 70% of global batteries installations. Korean companies account for roughly 15%. China dominates the intellectual property sector. According to the China National Intellectual Property Administration, Chinese companies held 18 of 20 top rankings for patents in power battery systems by 2023. China's technological expertise will be crucial for countries looking to develop their low-carbon energy capability. As a response to the Middle East's energy crisis, nuclear energy has also been brought back into the spotlight. This is especially true in Asia. South Korea considers expanding its nuclear capacity and Taiwan is contemplating restarting 2 nuclear reactors. Japan signed a $40 Billion reactor deal with America and a Nuclear Fuel Recycling Agreement with France.

This will be a boon for Asia's nuclear power equipment manufacturers. Doosan Enerbility, China's Shanghai Electric and Dongfang Electric as well as India's Larsen and Toubro and Japan’s Mitsubishi Heavy Industries could all benefit.

The current energy crisis has also highlighted the dangers of over-reliance upon a single chokepoint. Diversification is now a necessity, not just a goal. The Financial Times reports that there is renewed discussion about the India-Middle-East-Europe Economic Corridor. This project, which has U.S. backing, will link India with Europe by rail and shipping.

This buildout could benefit several Asian companies that have a long history and expertise in the Middle East, including Larsen and Toubro of India, PetroChina and Abu Dhabi's NMDC.

Several hurdles remain. The Strait of Hormuz could remain closed for a long time, causing a shortage of industrial inputs and energy, which would severely impact Asia's manufacturing capabilities. Reshoring by the West, even if it is gradual, can also reduce Asia's gains. Increasing capital costs - driven by inflationary expectations - could delay both green energy and defense projects.

The Middle East conflict may end at some point but its impact on the global policy direction is not likely to.

The views expressed are those of Manishi Raymondchaudhuri. He is the founder and CEO Emmer Capital Partners Ltd. and former head of Asia-Pacific Equity Research for BNP Paribas. This column is interesting to you? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.

(source: Reuters)