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Comoros suspends fuel price hikes after deadly protests
By Abdou Moustoifa MORONI, 16 MAY - Comoros has announced the suspension of the new fuel prices that were introduced as a response to the Iran War. The reversal comes after the price hikes led to protests and deadly clashes in the East African Archipelago. An announcement was made after protesters and security forces clashed on Anjouan island, resulting in the death of one person and the injury of five others. "The Comorian people's cries were heard by the government and Azali Assoumani (Assoumani). Listening to them was the only solution. At a press conference, Energy Minister Aboubacar?Said Anli stated that the goal was to maintain peace. Azali said that he suspended the decrees relating to the fuel price increase, which he said were "introduced" on May 9 to allow for discussions on the matter. On?Friday, clashes broke out following a meeting held between the mayor of Mirontsy on the island of Anjoua and the association of fishermen who have been on strike against the rising fuel price since Wednesday. In Mutsamudu - the capital of Anjouan - roads were also blocked by stones. The circumstances surrounding the death of the victim, who occurred near Mpage, are now being investigated by a judicial investigation. The unrest was a result of a wider strike that began Monday, after the government increased 'diesel prices' by 46% and gasoline by 35%. It cited the global oil prices surge caused by 'the war in the Middle East. According to the National Human Rights Commission, 39 people were detained after transport workers and shopkeepers paralyzed public transportation in Moroni's capital. The head of the merchants union and the?president? of the transport workers?union announced that the strike ended on Saturday.
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Tunisians protest Saied's arrests over economic strain
On Saturday, hundreds of Tunisians demonstrated in the capital Tunis against President Kais Saied. They accused him of undermining freedoms and preside over an escalating 'economic & social crisis. The protest was under the slogan "People are hungry and jails are full". Demonstrators demanded an end to the one-man rule, and displayed banners that denounced?arrests made of journalists, politicians and civil society figures amid fears?of a wider crackdown on dissent. The protesters used the police and the judiciary to silence their critics. They also said that Saied had failed to address the economic crisis. Tunisia faces a'severe economic strain', with a sluggish economy, high prices, shortages in food and medicine, financial pressures and deteriorating services. Saied, the man who disbanded parliament and started ruling by decree in the year 2022, is facing mounting criticism from rights groups for what they claim to be the destruction of the post-2011 democratic system. Saied denies these accusations and says that his "measures" are necessary to save the country from chaos. The bar association is calling for strikes over the erosion of judicial autonomy in the coming days, and the journalists' union will protest against restrictions on press freedom as well as journalists being jailed. Authorities claim they enforce the law, and deny accusations of political repression. Reporting by Tarek Amara. Mark Potter edited the story.
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China claims that the Trump visit is a 'preliminary deal'
China's 'commerce ministry' described the tariff, aircraft and agricultural deals as "preliminary". This was in response to Donald Trump's visit this week. Trump left Beijing Friday, after two days of talks between President Xi Jinping and Trump that were filled with pageantry and warm words but with limited details on tangible outcomes in trade and investment. The ministry announced on its website that the two parties had agreed to create an investment board and?a trade panel to negotiate reciprocal tariff reductions on specific products, as well as larger cuts on unspecified goods, including agricultural products. Beijing also said that both sides will work together to resolve issues of non-tariff tariff barriers and market access. "FINALISED?AS SOON as possible" The ministry stated that the U.S. will "actively promote" the resolution of China's longstanding concerns about?the automatic removal of aquatic products from China, the export of bonsai plants in growing media to America, and the recognition of Shandong Province as a region free of avian flu. The Chinese side also pledged to actively resolve U.S. concerns about the registration of beef plants and poultry meat exports from certain U.S. States to China. The ministry didn't identify any companies, or give details about volumes, values or timelines. China released its first public statement on Saturday, describing the results of trade talks held this week in Beijing & Seoul. This comes amid concerns about what Trump's 'first state visit' to China has achieved. Trump said that China had?agreed' to buy 200 Boeing planes, but analysts questioned this lack of timeline. The Commerce Ministry confirmed "arrangements" on "Chinese aircraft purchases from the United States" and U.S. assurances regarding the'supply of aircraft parts and engines to China", but did not elaborate. The statement said that discussions were ongoing and the agreement would "finalised as quickly as possible". Reporting by Eduardo Baptista. Mark Potter (Editing by Mark Potter).
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In Thailand, a freight train collision with a bus has resulted in at least eight deaths and 32 injuries
Rescue officials and the deputy transport minister reported that at least eight people died and 32 others were injured after a train struck a bus in Bangkok and ignited a fire. Officials said that firefighters and rescue crews responded to the incident as fires consumed the bus and vehicles nearby near the Airport Rail Link station in Makkasan. They added that the crash involved motorcycles and cars. According to preliminary reports, the bus was stopped "on the tracks" at a red signal, which prevented the crossing barriers from closing. Deputy Transport Minister,?Siripong, Angkasakulkiat, told reporters that the preliminary reports indicated the bus had been parked?on the track?, and therefore, prevented the crossing barriers from being closed. He added that the train, which was carrying containers, could not stop in time to prevent colliding with?the bus. Eight people died and 32 were injured. The wounded are being treated at various hospitals. "All eight of the dead were on that bus," he stated. Social media videos showed the train dragging several vehicles and the bus along the tracks. The bus was stuck in a red-light situation, and so couldn't move. Wanthong Kokpho said that cars were also "blocked" and could not move forward. The fire broke out immediately. The damage would have been worse if this was a normal workday. Officials said that rescue teams pulled injured victims out of the wreckage while fire crews battled with water hoses. They said that the fire had been brought under control and that crews were cooling down the area and venting gas while continuing to search for survivors. Authorities are investigating what caused the incident. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), Thailand's roads are among the deadliest in the world due to a lack of enforcement of safety standards. Reporting by Orathai Shriring, Panarat Thepgumpanat, and Tananchai K. Keawsowattana. Editing by Louise Heavens & Joe Bavier
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One dead in Comoros as clashes erupt over rising fuel prices
By Abdou Moustoifa MORONI, 16 May - Five people were injured and one person killed in clashes between protesters on the comorian island of Anjouan and security forces, as unrest over fuel price increases spreads throughout the archipelago. The prosecutor stated in a Saturday statement that the Public Prosecutor's Office of Mutsamudu informed the public about a tragic incident which occurred in Anjouan in the Mpage region, and resulted in the death of a person, as well as five other injuries. After a meeting with the mayor of Mirontsy, and the 'fishermen association' which had been on strike since Wednesday in protest at rising fuel prices, there were clashes. In Mutsamudu (the capital of Anjouan), roads were blocked by stones. A judicial investigation was opened to determine what caused the death. The unrest is a result of a wider strike that began on Monday, after the government increased gasoline and diesel prices by 46% each. Citing the "Middle East" conflict as the reason for the increase. The strike by transport workers and shopkeepers has paralysed the public transportation system in Moroni. According to the National Human?Rights?Commission,?39 people were detained since the beginning of the strike. In an effort to reduce tensions, the government announced "cuts" to official travel and a reduction of 40% in customs fees. (Reporting and editing by Abdou Moostifa)
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The rising cost of diesel fuel from the Iran war is straining US school budgets
The rising cost of diesel since the onset of 'the Iran war' is draining budgets already stretched by U.S. schools districts. It makes it expensive to transport students and run generators. Schools from Yakima Washington to Waco Texas are using emergency funds reserves to keep buses running. Interviews reveal that officials in remote Alaska are scrambling to secure enough fuel to run the lights. Trevor Greene, Superintendent of Yakima said: "It is more than a straw on a camel's...back. It's like a big haystack." The U.S. and Israeli war against Iran has had many knock-on effects, including the disruption of around one-fifth of world oil supplies. Fuel prices have risen at the fastest rate ever since the beginning of the war in late February. This spike has impacted economies all over the world. The spike has been so painful in the U.S. that it is a liability for Donald Trump in November's midterm elections, when the Republican Party is trying to hold onto a slim majority in the U.S. Congress. According to the American School Bus Council, U.S. bus operators consume more than 800 millions gallons of diesel per year. According to a new analysis by Samsara, a fleet management software provider, the cost to operate school buses in the United States has increased 67% since December. This is equivalent to an annual increase of $1.8 billion. James Rowan is the executive director of Association of School Business Officials International. He said that while districts can budget for higher costs in advance, the rapid swings in price make it difficult to do so accurately. "Even districts who have been able absorb costs through temporary measures or reserves this year may not have the same flexibility in the future." A survey of 188 U.S. School Districts, commissioned by AASA, and conducted in the week of May 4, revealed that close to a third are taking money from other funds to pay for their higher fuel costs. According to the survey results, school officials are looking for ways to cut costs. They consolidate bus routes, enforce anti-idling, change fuel buying practices, delay maintenance, and reduce administrative expenditure and staffing. "TREMENDOUSLY UNDERFUNDED" Yakima School district executives in Washington State said that the price of diesel they pay has recently increased by 64% on an annual basis to $6.30 per gallon. Greene said that at this price, the district's 60 buses would require an additional $213,000 in fuel costs per year. This is roughly equivalent to the salaries of two teachers. That is a big burden in an agriculture-dominated school district that has a poverty rate of 86%, and which is already "tremendously underfunded," he said. Jacob Kuper, district CFO, said that the district will instead buy its 30,000 gallon diesel tank in small quantities on days of low prices, rather than filling it. This is because it's "limping through the end" of the year. Christopher Mills of Thief River Falls Public Schools, in northwestern Minnesota said that diesel costs associated with transporting up to 800 students have increased around 30% since Iran's war began. Mills stated that the district was working to minimize direct impact on classrooms. "But if prices continue to rise, we may be forced to reduce support services for students." Even oil-rich Texas schools have not been spared. Waco Independent Schools District, which has over 80 buses, and average round-trip routes of 60 miles per day on average, reported an increase in diesel prices by 84% in early April. PRESSURE-PACKED Yupiit school district in Southwestern Alaska uses diesel generators to power the community and classrooms, not buses. Scott Ballard, Superintendent of the Yupiit District School Board in Akiachak, said during a phone interview that if they couldn't produce electricity then we wouldn't be able to run our school. The district, which has 550 students in it, is icebound most of the time, leaving a small window for fuel purchases. Ballard explained that leaders are now faced with a tough choice: Do they lock-in a price nearly 66% higher than the previous year, or do they gamble on prices falling? We're under a lot of pressure. Some of the biggest school districts in the United States are partially protected from fuel price fluctuations. Paul Quinn Mori is the president of the New York School Bus Contractors Association. He said that the district in New York City, which has the largest population in the country, outsources approximately 60%?of pupil transport. This arrangement often transfers fuel price changes from the district to the contractors. Los Angeles Unified, the second largest school district in the country, has been moving towards diesel-powered vehicles for many years. A district spokesperson revealed that 70% of its 1,300 bus fleet runs on batteries or alternative fuels. A spokesperson stated that "rising diesel prices continue impacting Los Angeles Unified’s transportation budget. However, the district has taken active steps to reduce dependence on fossil fuels by investing in clean transportation." (Reporting and editing by David Gregorio; Lisa Baertlein)
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In April, Iraq exported 10,000,000 barrels of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz.
Basim Mohammed, Iraq's new Oil Minister, told a?press?conference on Saturday that the country exported 10 million barrels?of?oil via the Strait?of Hormuz?in?April. This is down?from 93 million barrels per month before the Iran War. Oil prices have risen sharply since the Iran war closed the 'Strait of Hormuz. Iraqi crude oil exports via the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline resumed in march, after Baghdad agreed to restart the flow. Mohammed said: "We currently export 200,000 barrels via Ceyhan, but we plan to increase that to 500,000 barrels". Iraq 'plans to engage OPEC in order to boost its production - and export capacity. 'The minister stated that Baghdad aims at a?production capacity of 5 million _barrels a day.
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New York's Long Island rail strikes halt the busiest commuter route in US
A union statement said that about 3,500 workers from the New York Long Island Rail Road (LIRR), who failed to reach an agreement on wages, went on strike Saturday. This halted the busiest commuter train system in the United States. The Long Island Rail Road is operated and owned by the state’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA). It serves nearly 300,000 passengers per day. In a press release, the International Brotherhood of Teamsters union stated that a group of five unions had launched a strike. This was 'the first strike in 32 years. The union said that the workers went three years without receiving raises in the course of the bargaining. Mark Wallace, President of the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers & Trainmen, said: "This strike wouldn't have happened if MTA and LIRR had offered our members the terms that the government repeatedly recommended." We hope LIRR takes action soon to prevent further?disruptions of hundreds of thousands New Yorkers. When they are ready, they know where to find us: on the street. After the unions requested that he intervene, President Donald Trump signed an executive order in January to appoint another emergency?board for mediation to avoid a stoppage of work at the Long Island Rail Road. Trump had initially named a board to end the labor dispute in September of last year. (Reporting and editing by Tom Hogue in Bengaluru, Mihika Sharma, Shubham Kalya)
Could Asia be the unexpected winner of the fallout after the Iran war? : Raychaudhuri
Asia is the most vulnerable area in the Iran War due to its heavy reliance upon Middle East oil and gas. But it could be the biggest winner as a result of several long-term tendencies this conflict will likely accelerate. These include higher cybersecurity investments, the pivoting away from fossil fuels, and supply chain diversification. Energy-intensive economies in the region, led by China and Japan, South Korea and India, are heavily dependent on Middle Eastern gas and oil. Around 80% of the oil and 90% of the gas that transits through 'the Strait of Hormuz is destined for Asian market. Energy prices in the region have risen sharply since'most vessels' were unable to transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
China, with its huge stockpiles of food, has been relatively protected from shortages and rationing in other countries.
Even though the crisis has exposed Asia's vulnerability to energy, it could also be speeding up structural changes that are in favour of the region on the long-term.
BUILDING ASIAN ARSENAL
The war is likely to increase the push for increased defense spending globally, as well as Asia’s drive towards greater self-sufficiency in defence. Asian contractors may have an edge over their Western counterparts due to the region's high-quality semiconductor and manufacturing supply chain. Hanwha Aerospace formerly LIG Nex1, LIG Defense & Aerospace and Hyundai Rotem are three Korean arms manufacturers that have attracted investor interest in the past year because of their high earnings growth expectations and large order backlogs. The growing penetration of European markets could further increase their market dominance. The Iran conflict as well as the Russia-Ukraine War have both highlighted the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness "new" weapons, particularly?drones. According to Technavio, the global military drones market is expected nearly double from $15.3 billion to $29 billion between 2030 and 2025.
Technavio predicts a similar growth in the Asia military drone market. This is dominated by Chinese aerospace giants, who are state-backed. By leveraging their scale of production, cost-effectiveness and product range, the region's manufacturers can compete with U.S. and Israeli rivals.
CHIPS, CYBER & AI
Asia's cyber ambitions are at the center of a global race. They are fueled by rapid digitalization, government-led investments, massive hardware manufacturing capabilities, and artificial intelligence-powered defenses. According to the World Economic Forum (WEF) January survey, geopolitically motivated attacks on corporations are today's biggest risk.
The WEF survey reveals that most companies believe AI will have the greatest impact on cybersecurity over the next year.
AI appears to be doing exactly that. Anthropic's Mythos, a model?reportedly capable of identifying vulnerabilities in software at scale, illustrates the offensive potential as well as the defensive imperative. In order to remain one step ahead of the AI arms race, the U.S. and other countries may be compelled to increase their domestic manufacturing. The demand for Korean and Taiwanese semi-conductors is likely to continue indefinitely.
The Energy Pivot
The Iran War may have a positive impact on the energy sector, encouraging more countries to move away from fossil fuels and towards electric vehicles, energy storage, and green energy in general. China's dominance of the EV batteries market will make it a disproportionately large winner. SNE Research reports that Chinese manufacturers are responsible for more than 70% of global batteries installations. Korean companies account for roughly 15%. China dominates the intellectual property sector. According to the China National Intellectual Property Administration, Chinese companies held 18 of 20 top rankings for patents in power battery systems by 2023. China's technological expertise will be crucial for countries looking to develop their low-carbon energy capability. As a response to the Middle East's energy crisis, nuclear energy has also been brought back into the spotlight. This is especially true in Asia. South Korea considers expanding its nuclear capacity and Taiwan is contemplating restarting 2 nuclear reactors. Japan signed a $40 Billion reactor deal with America and a Nuclear Fuel Recycling Agreement with France.
This will be a boon for Asia's nuclear power equipment manufacturers. Doosan Enerbility, China's Shanghai Electric and Dongfang Electric as well as India's Larsen and Toubro and Japan’s Mitsubishi Heavy Industries could all benefit.
The current energy crisis has also highlighted the dangers of over-reliance upon a single chokepoint. Diversification is now a necessity, not just a goal. The Financial Times reports that there is renewed discussion about the India-Middle-East-Europe Economic Corridor. This project, which has U.S. backing, will link India with Europe by rail and shipping.
This buildout could benefit several Asian companies that have a long history and expertise in the Middle East, including Larsen and Toubro of India, PetroChina and Abu Dhabi's NMDC.
Several hurdles remain. The Strait of Hormuz could remain closed for a long time, causing a shortage of industrial inputs and energy, which would severely impact Asia's manufacturing capabilities. Reshoring by the West, even if it is gradual, can also reduce Asia's gains. Increasing capital costs - driven by inflationary expectations - could delay both green energy and defense projects.
The Middle East conflict may end at some point but its impact on the global policy direction is not likely to.
The views expressed are those of Manishi Raymondchaudhuri. He is the founder and CEO Emmer Capital Partners Ltd. and former head of Asia-Pacific Equity Research for BNP Paribas. This column is interesting to you? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
(source: Reuters)