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Bookings for Expedia plummet as Middle East conflict and Mexico travel advisories hit.
Expedia, the online travel agency, saw its shares drop 8% on Friday before the bell. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East and a Mexican travel advisory shaved '200 basis points?off?its quarterly room-night and booking growth. After military strikes in several countries that caused airspace closures, major transit hubs like Dubai were disrupted and airlines had to suspend their routes. Ariane Gorin, CEO of Ariane Travel Group, said that while the Middle East represents less than 2 percent of total bookings for Ariane Travel Group, traveler cancellations were higher in Europe and Asia. Travel demand to Mexico has also weakened since the February killing of a drug-lord sparked violence, triggering a U.S. shelter in place?advice for Americans. Michael Bellisario of Baird said that the combined 200-basis point headwind was more than expected. He noted that Booking Holdings, which has twice as much exposure to regional markets, also saw a similar impact. Jake Fuller, BTIG analyst, said: "We thought Expedia would be protected from disruptions in the Middle East and Mexico. But we were wrong." He said: "However Expedia continues to execute well, and this shouldn't be lost in the debate about what amounts to temporary interruptions." Airbnb reported higher cancellations on Thursday due to the conflict. They expect it to continue to be a problem later in the year. After a K-shaped market reduced?demand for mid-range and budget lodgings, a recovery in U.S. tourism has emerged as the bright spot?for both companies. Gregory Miller, a Truist analyst, said: "We're not concerned about Expedia maintaining its full-year guide. The rationale is understandable; it's driven by macro uncertainty." Expedia and Booking were both trading at lower multiples than Airbnb, which was 26.91.
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State media reports that Iran has seized the oil tanker Ocean Koi from the Gulf of Oman.
Iran has seized the oil tanker Ocean Koi, in the Gulf of Oman, for a 'pretend attempt to disrupt Iran’s oil exports. The?Barbados flagged tanker, it said, was carrying Iranian oil. It also claimed that the tanker "was attempting to disrupt and harm oil exports .... through exploiting regional circumstances". According to state media, the oil tanker was escorted to the southern coast and then handed over to the judiciary authorities. The seizure was made after the?U.S. Iranian and U.S. forces clashed at the Strait of Hormuz which connects?the Gulf of Oman to the Gulf of Oman. Iran has closed the narrow waterway that was a conduit for a fifth of world oil before the U.S. and Israeli war against?Iran erupted on February 28.
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Maguire: Seven markets to watch if the Middle East is at peace.
If a durable peace is achieved in the Middle East, it will have a ripple effect on markets that goes beyond crude oil. It will remove risk premiums from everything from freight rates and fertilizer prices. Investors and traders should not only focus on whether prices fall but also how the different components of the energy complex are moving relative to each other. Here are some key charts, including crude, products and shipping, as well as industrial commodities, to help you gauge whether the markets are pricing a temporary ease in tensions, or a structural change in global supply and demand, if there is a peace agreement. PHYSICAL VS. FUTURES Since the U.S., Israel and other countries attacked Iran at the end February, there has been a dislocation between the physical and the paper crude oil markets. Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil, has seen its physical market tighten dramatically due to the reduction in global oil supply and the increase in shipping and insurance costs. Brent Spot Prices In April, oil prices surged over $140 per barrel - near their all-time highest levels - as traders tried to accurately price the impact of conflict in the Middle East that had brought shipping to a standstill. Brent crude oil futures have also surged since the end of February. However, they topped out at less than $120 per barrel because paper traders ignored the headlines that were threatening and assumed the parties would resolve their differences soon. If refiners and physical oil traders are confident that a lasting peace agreement has been reached, the physical oil price should fall significantly from its current level to indicate a sustainable recovery of oil supplies. REFINING MARGINS Since the beginning of the war, oil refiners have made a lot of money thanks to the rapid rise in fuel prices that was fueled by consumer concern about possible shortages. The crack spread is the difference between the price of gas oil, diesel or Brent crude futures. Due to the conflict, this widely-tracked indicator of refiner profits has increased by more than twofold since February and is now around $45 per barrel. This margin should be compressed if oil markets participants truly believe that global oil flows are returning to their previous levels. U.S. GASOLINE U.S. lawmakers have been reminded by the steep rise in gasoline prices this month to multi-year-highs that?the Iran war's impact extends to other major oil exporting regions. A genuine peace agreement should translate quickly into a drop in fuel prices for the United States, given its crude oil production. The forward curve for the U.S. gas market is a key metric that will help you track?the future expected prices of fuel over the next year or two. If there is a widely-believed breakthrough with Iran, forward prices should drift back to pre-war levels. However, any skepticism regarding the peace deal will likely keep forward prices high for the foreseeable. FREIGHT FIX Chartering oil tankers out of the Middle East is one of the most noticeable effects of the Iran War. Daily rates for a VLCC from the Middle East into China have risen from less than $150,000 to over $450,000. The sudden emergence of peace in the Middle East and the resumption tanker traffic from that region should help to lower transit costs. However, a full restoration of insurance market would be required for rates to return at their former levels. BEYOND OIL The conflict in Iran has affected markets other than crude oil and fuels. Middle East is a major producer of fertilizers, industrial acids and many other commodities. Prices of jet fuels, urea, and sulphuric acids on the international market should continue to fall if a peace agreement is reached which restores traffic quickly from this region. GAS & LNG The fallout of the Middle East conflict has also roiled the global natural gas market. It is likely to be corrected if a lasting deal can be reached. Since the start of the war, prices for LNG (liquefied gas) and natural gas have risen in Asia and Europe. These are the markets that will see the largest possible retreats once the conflict is officially over. It is true that restocking depleted gas stocks and higher gas consumption for electricity generation during summer may limit price drops in some areas, particularly during hot spells when air conditioners are used to their fullest. Stock Picking Investors who want to know how companies, not markets, are affected by a conflict resolution will be interested in the price of energy-based oil producers. The Middle East conflict has pushed the share prices of Canadian oil sands producers, and U.S. shale extractors to multi-year highs or records. A recovery in Middle Eastern oil production and exports could trigger a selloff of these stocks. This could lead to a wider pullback in the international oil and natural gas market. A genuine peace dividend would not only push oil prices lower but also reshape the spreads, flows, and relative pricing throughout the entire energy complex. Investors will be better able to determine if the calm in the Middle East is the beginning of a new era for energy that's more stable and cheaper. These are the opinions of a columnist who writes for. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks.
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EU agency warns against switching jet fuel amid fears of shortage
Amid concerns about a fuel shortage due to the war with Iran, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency has advised airports and airlines to 'take precautions' when switching to Jet A fuel. In European airports, jet A-1 is typically used in planes. This grade is more suitable for long-haul, cold-temperature operations and is preferred by the military. EASA issued a statement Friday saying that "a potential introduction into markets using Jet A-1 traditionally needs to be managed adequately." EU guidelines revealed on Thursday that Jet 'A' fuel will be allowed to be used by airlines as the EU preferred fuel grade may 'run out due to a shortage of Middle Eastern oil supplies. EASA announced that it would provide aviation?actors with safety information on?adequate?use.
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Dutch regulator fines taxi app Yango £117 million for data transfers to Russia
The Dutch data protection agency announced on Friday that it had?imposed a fine of 100 million euros ($117 million)?on the mobile taxi app Yango because they transferred personal?data?of their customers to Russia. AP (as 'the'regulator was known) imposed the fine to MLU, a Dutch company that is behind units of Yango located in Norway and Finland. It said this in a press release. The taxi app is primarily used in Africa, Latin America and the Middle East, as well as in non-EU European nations. However, it was also present in Finland and Norway, which are not EU countries but adhere to the same data protection rules. The company has said that it will appeal the fine. The company said it would appeal the fine. The statement stated that an investigation was opened by the 'Dutch agency, together with their Finnish and Norwegian counterparts in late 2023. They found the taxi app had collected and stored significant amounts of personal data, including scans of drivers licenses, addresses, and account numbers on servers in Russia. The agency stated that companies operating in Europe cannot transfer personal data to places where data "is not equally protected". In Russia, data protection is not as good as in Europe. Aleid Wolfsen, the Dutch regulator chief, said that this could?allow Russian government access to these data.
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A new hantavirus is suspected in a remote island, as the contact tracking continues
On Friday, a suspected case of the hantavirus virus was identified in a British citizen on the South Atlantic Island of Tristan da Cunha. The British Health Security Agency did not reveal any further details about the suspected new case, which occurred on the island with only 200 residents, the world's most remote inhabited one, where the cruise ship stopped on April 15, The outbreak on the MV Hondius has killed three people - a Dutch family and a German. In addition to the four others who have been confirmed as infected by the virus, two Britons and one Dutch national are currently being treated at hospitals in South Africa, Netherlands and Switzerland. Dutch woman dies shortly after leaving the ship on 24 April. She was the Dutch woman who married 'patient zero,' the Dutchman who died on board the ship on 11 April. The World Health Organisation said that it will provide an update of the latest confirmed and suspected case numbers on Friday. NON-REPLICATION OF NEW INFECTIONS IN THE NETHERLANDS The Dutch Health Authorities said that on Thursday, two people who were close to the woman prior to her being taken off the plane in Johannesburg due to her deteriorating health condition had tested negative for the virus. The World Health Organisation announced on Friday that a flight attendant was among them. She had been admitted into a hospital in Amsterdam after showing symptoms of an infection. The Dutch Public Health Institute said that it is still awaiting clear test results in the third case, which occurred on Friday. Low Risk of Widespread Contagion Hantavirus usually spreads by rodents, but the strain found in passengers on the Hondius could in rare cases be transmitted from person to person. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have classified the hantavirus as 'level 3,' the lowest level for emergency activation. Experts have also emphasized the low likelihood of a widespread outbreak. However, the outbreak has put the authorities on high alert. They urge anyone who may have been in contact with passengers that left the Hondius prior to the outbreak being reported to be aware of any symptoms. Some states in the U.S. have stated that they monitor residents who returned home after disembarking a cruise ship. Singapore has isolated and tested two residents of the ship. No SYMPTOMATIC Passengers on Board Ship Oceanwide Cruises said on Thursday that there were no symptoms of an infection at the ship, which is expected to dock early Sunday morning in Tenerife?in the Canary Islands. The WHO said it was working on step by step instructions for the passengers who remain on board the ship to disembark. British health services said that passengers who do not show symptoms on board will be sent home to quarantine for 45 days.
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Descartes reports that US container imports dropped 5.5% in April due to trade and geopolitical risk.
U.S. Container Imports Dropped 5.5% In April As?Importers Deal With Trade Policy Uncertainty And Geopolitical Risks, Supply Chain Technology Provider?Descartes Systems Group Said?On Friday. U.S. President Donald Trump’s changing trade policies have hit containerized?import _volumes. Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route for energy supplies after U.S. and Israeli?strikes against the country. Import trends can be viewed as a measure of the U.S. economic health. They rise when the economy is strong, and fall when it is weak. Descartes data showed that U.S. ports handled 2,277.965 twenty-foot equivalent units in April, which was a 3.2% decrease from March's levels. It was the first time since 2022 that April's volumes had dropped sequentially. Last month, container import volumes were 19% higher than the pre-pandemic level?from April 2019. The firm stated that this is due to "continued resilient in underlying demand." However, so far in 2026, U.S. imports of containerized goods are?down by 5%. In April 2026, the number of TEUs imported from China fell 15.3% on an annual basis to 680 778. Importers will likely get a "short-term boost in cash flow" when the U.S. Customs and Border Protection Agency issues the first tariff refunds for May 12th,?Descartes stated. However, he warned that uncertainty and costs would continue to persist as long as "replacement duties remain in place."
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Energy Minister says Turkey wants to extend LNG agreement with Algeria
Alparslan Bayraktar, Minister of Energy, said that Turkey was looking to extend the 'liquefied gas (LNG), agreement with Algeria before it expires in September 2027. He added that some of the LNG could be transported into southeastern Europe. The first gas supply contract was signed in 1988 by the Turkish state energy company Botas with Algerian state oil & gas company Sonatrach. It has been repeatedly extended since then. "We hope to conclude a new agreement this year." "Our current agreement expires September 2027. We aim to renew it," Bayraktar said after the meeting between the Turkish and Algerian leaders in Ankara. Bayraktar stated that after the LNG is transported to Turkey, some of it can be processed by Turkish facilities before being shipped to Europe via Bulgaria. We currently have an agreement that covers 4.4 billion cubic metres per year. He said that we could increase this to 6 to 6.5 billion cubic metres. Bayraktar stated that another item on the Ankara agenda was collaboration between Turkish Petroleum and Sonatrach for oil & natural gas explorations in Algerian waters. (Reporting and writing by Huseyin Haatsever, Daren Butler, Kate Mayberry; editing by Kate Mayberry).
Sweden cancels plans to build a power cable from Denmark due to disagreements with EU funding plan
Ebba busch, the Energy Minister of Sweden, said that plans to build a new power cable for Denmark will be put on hold. She also stated that Sweden disagreed with the proposal made by the European Commission on how the revenues generated from electricity congestion fees should be used.
Sweden has threatened to limit electricity exports this year to its neighbours until the European Commission resolves their disagreements over the use national funds to fund EU energy projects.
Sweden expects to charge Denmark, Finland, and Germany 130 billion Swedish crowns (14.11 billion dollars) for the excess power it exports from its fleets of nuclear, hydropower,?and renewable energy generators.
Busch stated that it wants to be able to use revenue from Swedish congestion fees to build electricity production capacity. However, the current proposal of the Commission indicated that the money would need to go to the energy grid.
She said that the Commission's proposal was "inacceptable" and she would not be investing in new cables for continental Europe.
Grid constraints can prevent electricity from reaching high-demand areas, leading to substantial profits for network operators.
Busch stated that Sweden would halt the Konti-Skan Connect Cable between southwest Sweden and Denmark. The cable is intended to replace two aging?power cables.
The government of the centre-right is trying to secure funding for four large nuclear reactors with an installed capacity of around 5, 000 MW or 'the equivalent in modular small?reactors. The half of these should be operational by 2035. $1 = 9.2127 Swedish crowns (Reporting and editing by Terje Sollvik and Clarence Fernandez; Reporting by Jesus Calero, Gdansk and Louise Rasmussen, Copenhagen and Johan Ahlander, Stockholm)
(source: Reuters)