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European winter power premium is highest since 2022 due to gas and hydro shortages

Data shows that European winter electricity contracts trade at a premium of over 20% to the benchmark for next year. This is the highest since the energy crisis in 2022. Low gas stocks and shrinking reserves of hydropower raise the risk of higher energy prices. The Strait of Hormuz has largely been at a standstill since the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran began in 'late 'February. Wholesale energy prices have risen due to the disruption of energy supply.

LSEG data show that winter baseload contracts in Germany and Italy -- the two European markets most reliant upon gas-fired power generation -- are currently trading at more than EUR110 per megawatt-hour (MWh) or EUR120/MWh. This is more than a fifth higher than the price for 2027, which was around EUR92/MWh or EUR104/MWh.

The steep premium, a backwardation structure in which contracts for the near future cost more than those with a later date, signals a serious concern about winter supply.

Gas: HORMUZ SQUEEZE

Concerns centre around the gas market. In retaliation to the US, Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz from liquefied gas shipments. Israeli and U.S. strikes have removed about a fifth from global LNG supplies and increased competition between Europe, Asia and the Middle East for flexible cargoes.

This has made it difficult for Europe to build up?storage before the winter. Gas inventories have fallen to 38.2% capacity, far below the seasonal average of 52%. This is well below the 90% European Union target for November 1 according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe. With 160 days left until the EU deadline the injection rate would have to be nearly doubled to reach the goal. The storage levels are now lower than they were in 2022 when Europe was scrambling to find alternatives to Russian gas pipelines following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. Equinor, a Norwegian company, has warned about a potential security of supply issue. Equinor executives warned this month that Europe may face a gas shortage if there is a prolonged disruption of the Hormuz pipeline.

BNP Paribas' analyst Jason Ying says that European power prices may rise if the strait is blocked again this summer, if gas storage remains tight, and if the current water shortage persists. Gas prices are currently EUR46/MWh at the Dutch TTF Hub, but they do not include a winter premium yet, said Jason Ying.

The weather adds a new layer of uncertainty. Forecasters are expecting an El Nino climate pattern this year. This could mean a milder European Winter, which would ease heating demand, but also a warmer, drier Summer, which would worsen the hydropower production.

HYDRO: A DECADE OF LOW

Hydropower production is already under strain. The low snowfall 'last winter will limit reservoir filling over the summer. LSEG data show that the combined hydrological equilibrium for continental Europe and Nordics - a'measure of the available generation capacity held in reservoirs and snow and soil - is at its lowest level in a decade.

Nordic and Alpine countries depend on flexible hydropower for peak winter demand, and to balance grids when gas prices spike or renewable output drops. Hydropower constraints exacerbated stress in the European energy system during the 2022 gas crises. Traders?said that low reservoirs this year could have the same effect.

Italy is most vulnerable to future price increases because it depends on both hydropower and gas. Germany is also under pressure due to rising gas prices and weaker imports by?hydro dependent Alpine and Nordic neighbors, Evan Kyritsis said, an analyst at Swiss energy company Axpo.

He said that "the buffers which would normally be present -- full Alpine reservoirs and ample Nordic hydro as well as comfortable LNG availability -- were absent this year."

A prolonged Hormuz shutdown or further gas price spikes would be the most damaging to front-year contracts on gas-dependent markets, since those prices directly reflect increased fuel costs.

(source: Reuters)