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China embraces Myanmar's president as former junta chief seeks legitimacy

The state visit by Myanmar President Min Aung Hlaing to China will give him a diplomatic boost, as he seeks to consolidate power in the war torn country after a widely condemned presidential election held at the beginning of the year. Min Aung Hlaing's five-day state visit, which will include a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the highest diplomatic level, comes after he visited India last month and held discussions with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Richard Horsey is the Crisis Group's senior Myanmar advisor.

"India did not give him the full honors of a state visit on his recent trip, but he was given a warm welcome." Analysts say that while the optics of Min?Aung Hlaing's visit are positive, Beijing will likely remain focused on its own strategic goals, such as strengthening borders and developing resources like rare earths. China is Myanmar's largest trading partner and investor. It has anchored its influence with major Belt and Road Projects, such as a cross country oil and gas pipeline and deep sea port. Beijing is also a key supplier and diplomatic partner of the Myanmar military.

David Mathieson is a Thailand-based analyst who closely follows Myanmar.

"China also perceives that the West is retreating from Myanmar, and Beijing will assert its new suzerainty in the country."

CHINESE INTERESTS Since Min Aung Hlaing overthrew the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi, in February 2021, Myanmar has been engulfed in a civil war. The protests against the coup turned into a national armed uprising that pitted the military against newly formed pro-democracy groups and ethnic armies.

More than 93,000 people have been killed and more than 3.7 millions displaced by the fighting in this impoverished Southeast Asian country. Myanmar's military orchestrated a general elections last December and January that excluded major opposition, and resulted in an overwhelming victory for a party backed by the army, which paved the way for the election of Min?Aung Hlaing as president.

According to the state media, the delegation that accompanied Min Aung Hlaing in China included the chief ministers from Myanmar's Kachin State and Shan State, which both border China. They also included the country's minister of industry. Kachin State has one of the largest heavy rare earth mine belts in the world, and Shan State shares many trading routes with China. Aung Kyaw Soe said that the ministers' attendance suggests that discussions will likely focus on border trade, and the Myitsone Dam project, a $3.6 billion Chinese-led project, in Kachin State, which was shelved by 2011.

Aung Kyaw Soe stated that "in 2025, the military second-in command, General Soe Win personally started bringing up the topic of restarting Myitsone. I believe they will discuss it during 'Min Aung Hlaings' current trip to China," Aung Kyaw Soe. Min Aung Hlaing’s visit will be impacted by the arrest of Min Zin in China, a prominent American scholar from Myanmar. He was arrested on suspicion of spying.

Horsey, from the Crisis Group, said that Min Aung Hlaing’s visit would bring more attention to Min Zin’s arrest because he was one of the leading Myanmar scholars who worked towards improving understanding between the countries. (Reporting and Editing by DevjyotGhoshal and Kate Mayberry).

(source: Reuters)