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China embraces Myanmar's president as former junta chief seeks legitimacy

The state visit by Myanmar President Min Aung Hlaing to China will give him a diplomatic boost as he attempts to consolidate power in the war torn country after a widely condemned election at the beginning of the year. Min Aung Hlaing's five-day state visit to China, where he will meet Chinese president Xi Jinping at the highest diplomatic level, comes after a recent official trip to India, during which he met Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Richard Horsey is the Crisis Group's senior Myanmar advisor. He said: "An official visit by Xi Jinping to Myanmar is a clear signal that China will deal with Myanmar as a partner."

"India gave him warm embrace during his recent visit but not full honours for an official state-visit." Analysts say that while the optics of Min Aung Hlaing's victory are positive, Beijing will likely continue to focus on its own strategic goals, such as strengthening borders and developing resources like rare earths. China is Myanmar's largest trading partner and biggest investor. It anchors its influence with major Belt and Road Projects, such as a cross country oil and gas pipeline and deep sea port. Beijing is also a key supplier and diplomatic partner of the Myanmar military. It has even helped to broker ceasefires in parts of Myanmar's border where ethnic armies that have strong ties with China are dominant.

David Mathieson is a Bangkok-based independent analyst closely following Myanmar. He said that China's interest was not in federalism but rather rare?earths and infrastructure, mining and the security of the economic corridor to the Indian Ocean.

"China also perceives that the West is retreating from Myanmar, and Beijing will assert its new suzerainty in the country."

CHINESE INTERESTS Since Min Aung Hlaing overthrew the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi, in February 2021, Myanmar has been engulfed in a civil war. The protests against the coup turned into a national armed uprising that pitted the military against newly formed pro-democracy groups and ethnic armies.

Fighting has devastated the impoverished Southeast Asian country, killing more than 93,000 and forcing 3.7 millions to flee their homes. Myanmar's military orchestrated a general elections last December and January that excluded major opposition, and resulted in an overwhelming victory for a party backed by the army, which paved the way for Min Aung Hlaing to be elected president.

According to the state media, the delegation that accompanied Min Aung Hlaing in China included the chief ministers from Myanmar's Kachin State and Shan State, both of which border China. They also included the country's Industry Minister. Kachin State has one of the largest heavy rare earth mine belts in the world, and Shan State shares several trade routes with China. Aung Kyaw Soe said that the ministers' attendance suggests that discussions will likely focus on border trade, and the Myitsone Dam project, a $3.6 billion Chinese-led Kachin State project shelved by 2011.

Aung Kyaw Soe stated that "in 2025, the military second-in command, General Soe Win personally started bringing up restarting Myitsone. I think they will talk about restarting it on?Min Aung Hlaing?s current visit to China." A recent arrest of Min Zin in China, a prominent American scholar from Myanmar, has hung over?Min Aung Hlaing’s visit.

Horsey, from the Crisis Group, said that Min Aung Hlaing’s visit would bring more attention to Min Zin’s arrest because he was one of the leading Myanmar scholars who worked towards improving understanding between the countries. (Reporting and Editing by DevjyotGhoshal and Kate Mayberry).

(source: Reuters)