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US power companies scramble for equipment to meet the surge in demand from data centers

The demand for critical grid equipment, such as transformers, is increasing across the U.S. This has led to a shortage of these items, which in turn increases costs and delays, and forces utilities and developers into placing orders well in advance.

Transformers - which are used to increase or decrease electricity voltage - have been in short supply for the past five years, when demand started to rise faster than supply because of COVID-19 related lockdowns.

Experts say that the rapid expansion of AI infrastructure is further reducing supplies. The lead times, which is the time between an order and delivery for high-voltage converters, have increased from around one year in 2020 or 2021 to several years.

Ben Boucher is a senior analyst at Wood Mackenzie and said that the most important concern for developers today is equipment availability.

He said that while large power transformers face the greatest shortages on the market, data center construction is driving demand for circuit breakers and other switchgear. These items are expected to experience greater market deficits.

The power industry is struggling to bring more equipment online in order to meet the accelerating demand for data centers and lower prices.

Federal regulators, for example, ordered grid operators last month to investigate new protocols that would quickly connect data centres and other large energy consumers.

LONG WAIT, HIGHER PRICE

According to an analysis by Wood Mackenzie, the U.S.'s data center capacity will reach 110 gigawatts in 2030, up from 24 GW today. This means that electric vehicles would consume eight times as much electricity over this period.

The consultancy firm? said that the share of data centers in the electrical equipment market would increase to 40% under scenarios with accelerated growth, up from just 2% by 2020.

According to Boucher, the lead time for generator step-up-transformers will exceed 160 weeks by the first quarter 2026. This compares to an average of only 143 weeks between 2024 and 2026. For high-voltage breakers, the lead time climbed to 125 week in the second half last year compared to just 77 weeks from 2023.

Prices are also rising due to the surge in demand. The cost of transformers could rise by 4% up to as much as 10% in the next 12 months, depending on their type.

Although long-term agreements for supply can ease the burden, they "don't solve everything," according to Louis Finkel. Senior vice president of Government Relations at the National Rural Electrical Cooperative Association.

ADVANCE BUYING OF EQUIPMENT 5 YEARS IN ADVANCE

Utility companies and developers responded to the challenge by buying equipment in advance, refurbishing transformers that are older, asking their customers to pay upfront for equipment with long lead times and diversifying their sourcing.

California's Roseville Electric Utility, according to CEO Dan Beans used to purchase equipment for projects that were a year away, but now operates on a 3-year timeline in order to secure all the supplies they?need.

He added that because the waiting period for large transformers used in?substations has exceeded three years, the utility purchases equipment for projects it knows will be completed five years ahead of time.

Miska Pukkila is the senior manager for strategic sourcing at Wartsila?Storage. She said that developers are increasingly sourcing multiple suppliers from different geographies to ensure they are not dependent on a single manufacturer or region, and lock in deliveries through long-term contracts.

Beans said that as the shortage of transformers became more acute, suppliers who bid to sell to Roseville Electric Utility began to shift overseas. About three-fourths (74%) of their bids are now from countries such as China or South Korea.

He noted that domestic?suppliers typically quote longer lead-times and higher prices than their overseas competitors.

According to Pukkila, in some cases utilities and developers offer more favorable payment terms or pay upfront to secure earlier production slots, and shrink lead times.

Utility companies and industry will look to reduce long lead times for equipment, as well delays in projects like the queues to connect the grid, by delaying the retirement of power plants, as well expanding the domestic manufacturing capacity.

(source: Reuters)