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Saudi Arabia Bets on defensive allies to prevent war slide

Saudi Arabia, increasingly dragged into wars it did not initiate, is building defensive regional alliances to keep its enemies away and respond more "robustly" to attacks from Iran and its regional allies.

Analysts and diplomats say that despite the earliest attempts to build a maritime alliance in the Red Sea and the decision to bring Turkey into a defence agreement with the Kingdom and Pakistan, they have not been able to prevent attacks.

Saudi Arabia's military response to the attacks by Iran, Iraq, and Yemen's Houthis last month, which opened a southern front on the kingdom, as well as attacking Saudi shipping, has been very limited.

Riyadh is faced with a dilemma. How to protect its ambitious economic plan and deter attacks without getting entangled in an escalating conflict in the Middle East sparked by war between the U.S.

One Middle Eastern official said, "Saudi Arabia has a problem because its enemies know that it wants to avoid war." They are abusing it."

The Saudi Government Media Office did not respond to an inquiry for comment on this story.

Aziz al-Ghashian is a Saudi analyst, and a senior non-resident fellow of the Gulf International Forum. He said: "This is very worrying and exactly what Saudi Arabia was trying to avoid."

"Iran, and its?affiliates believe Saudi will not respond. Restraint was interpreted by them as an acceptance that they would be targeted. This is why Saudi Arabia needed to find a deterrent. "The trick is to find a balance," he said.

The Houthis attacked oil installations again in the Kingdom after the signing of the defence pact.

GRADUAL ESCALATION

Saudi Arabia, since the U.S. & Israel began the war against Iran on February 28th, has attempted to absorb the attacks. It chose to pursue a diplomatic approach first before launching limited military responses which were kept secret.

Around the time of the U.S. ceasefire in April, there was a tentative calm between the two countries. The Gulf region became a safe haven.

In the past few weeks, much of this has been jeopardized.

Yemen and Iraq have launched damaging attacks against the kingdom's oil infrastructure, as well as its shipping through the Strait of Hormuz or the Red Sea.

Saudi Arabia and the U.S. conducted joint airstrikes against Iraqi militias two weeks ago. They claimed that the Iraqi militias were responsible for the attacks against the kingdom. This was the first time the Saudis had announced a retaliation during the war.

Riyadh then announced two days later its intention to lead an maritime defence coalition on the Red Sea.

In Mecca, the agreement was announced last week.

Yasmine Farouk is the project director of Crisis Group's Gulf and Arabian Peninsula region.

She said that the coalitions are "trial balloons", and that a joint military action is unlikely at this time.

MECCA DEFENCE AGREEMENT Announced at Islam's holiest site and after Friday prayers, the Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan defence agreement carries the ?symbolic weight of Muslim nations pledging to defend each other as if they were one "Ummah," or Muslim nation, according to Sultan Alamer, a non-resident scholar in the Carnegie Middle East Program.

In practice, however, it is less clear.

Hakan Fidan, the Turkish Foreign Minister, said on Saturday that the pact is technically the same NATO Article 5 and will require consultations among all parties in order to determine the type of support provided to any country attacked, should they request any. Islamabad, under the pre-existing Saudi Arabian defence pact, had tried to avoid engaging militarily with Iran and its allies. It was able to do this despite Saudi Arabia facing hundreds of drone and missile attacks.

Iran said that the agreement was a move away from relying on external powers. This is an apparent reference to the United States. It also stated that it had no reason to worry, "so as long as the agreement correctly identifies and addresses the enemy."

THE YEMEN HEADACHE

Yemen's Houthis ended a four year truce on Saudi Arabia's southern border last month, announcing a naval blockade and shooting at its oil infrastructure.

Reports say that the Houthi attacks showed the kingdom's vulnerability to asymmetric war and brought back memories of the 2019 Saudi oil crisis, when production was halved due to Houthi missile and drone attacks planned by Iran.

Yemen is a particularly sore spot for Saudi Arabia, which led an intervention in 2015, after Iran-backed Houthis stormed Sanaa's capital, leading to a?international outcry about the high death toll due war and famine.

Riyadh wants Yemeni leadership to take the lead in any offensive. It also said that a multinational maritime coalition is needed to protect Red Sea shipping.

People who attended the meeting said that invitations were sent just a few weeks before the first session, demonstrating the urgency in which Saudi Arabia approached the mission.

Up to now, 14 countries from the region have signed up, and more are expected. Western diplomats claim that European nations are still deciding whether or not to join the coalition, as they worry about their potential involvement in a Yemen war.

Saudi Arabia is planning meetings in Jeddah this week to announce the official formation of its new government as soon as possible. (Reporting and editing by Keith Weir; Timour Azhari is the reporter)

(source: Reuters)