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US Gulf crude prices spike after Trump ends Chevron's Venezuela license

On Wednesday, spot prices for a medium crude oil grade that is used by refiners in the U.S. Gulf Coast soared as they sought alternatives after President Donald Trump terminated a license that allowed U.S. giant Chevron export Venezuelan petroleum.

Trump announced that he would reverse an authorization given by the administration of former President Joe Biden in November 2022 without mentioning any company names. Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez claimed that the U.S. made a "damaging, inexplicable" decision by going against Chevron.

According to LSEG vessel tracking and reports by the state company PDVSA, Chevron exported an average of almost 300,000 bpd (billion barrels per day) of Venezuelan crude oil to the United States in January.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, while Venezuelan crude accounted only for 3.5% of all U.S. crude oil imports in November of last year, it accounted for 13% of the crude oil imported by U.S. Gulf Coast Refineries.

In the first eleven months of 2024, Venezuela was the fourth-largest crude oil supplier to the U.S.

Mars crude, a medium-sour crude preferred by U.S. refiners, rose 70 cents to $1.70 over U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude on Wednesday. This was the largest increase in price for this grade since about a week.

The United States may be able to find alternative supplies but the cost and price of these barrels will put pressure on the margins of U.S. refining plants, especially in light of U.S. sanctions against Russian oil which have already reduced heavy crude supply.

Trump's decision to stop buying Venezuelan oil comes just days before the end of his one-month-long suspension on Canadian and Mexican oil duties. Tariffs on these products would result in a significant reduction of heavy crude oil supplies along the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Rohit Rathod is a senior analyst for Vortexa and a senior oil industry analyst. He said that Gulf Coast refiners would look at alternative heavy crude oils such as Colombian. He added that refiners could also consider the Middle East as a source of heavy crude oil.

A trading source stated that higher volumes of Guyanese crude oil could make their way to the United States. Another source indicated that U.S. refiners will likely be looking for heavy fuel oil coming from Brazil.

A trader stated that "the news could definitely support other grades, including Colombian temporarily even though some refiners are actively substituting crude oil with fuel oil or taking lighter domestic crudes as feedstocks."

In January, Daniel Noboa, President of Ecuador said that his country would be able to increase its exports up to 250,000 barrels per day to countries who currently buy Venezuelan oil in order to cover any shortfall due to license terminations in Venezuela.

Valero Energy Corporation was the leading Venezuelan crude oil processor in 2024. Chevron, PBF Energy and PBF Energy were next.

Trump stated that the termination of licenses would be effective on March 1, 2019. The fate of Venezuelan crude oil cargoes currently sailing to U.S. port or about to leave Venezuela until the end of this month was unclear.

Rathod stated that Washington may allow Chevron the same option as before and discharge the cargoes sent before the deadline. In the worst case scenario, the cargoes will be resold, most likely in Europe or India.

Chevron ships between five and six cargoes per week of Venezuelan crude oil to its U.S. refineries, as well as to other countries. This contributes significantly to the shipping activity in Venezuelan ports and those nearby such Aruba.

Chevron announced that it was evaluating the impact of the Trump administration's announcement to terminate its deal with Venezuela.

(source: Reuters)