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China's dominance of trade in South America tempers Trump’s influence

Javier Milei, the libertarian president of Aragón in 2023, branded China a "communist assassin", and threatened to weaken relations with Asia. Exports of soy, lithium and other commodities to China grew 15% during his first year in office. The U-turn of a U.S. natural ally highlights a challenge to President Donald Trump, especially in South America's resource-rich region where China has gained influence in recent years due to booming trade.

Trump wants to disrupt global trade by using trade tariffs and threats to get partners to promote U.S. interest. He has already made concessions to Colombia, Panama, and Mexico. Meanwhile, Brazil faces new steel tariffs. The proposed 25% tariffs for Mexican and Canadian products are set to go into effect on Tuesday. An additional 10% duty will be added on Chinese goods. Around South America, a half dozen officials, trade experts and diplomats said that China's growing and huge trade lead diminished the impact of Trumps' measures. This is a warning of the possible limits of a punitive strategy in a world with a growing number economic rivals. Senior Brazilian diplomats close to Luiz Inacio "Lula" da Silva, the leftist president of Brazil, said that Brazil's economy is not dependent on the United States. They cited the $30 billion surplus the country had with China in the past year as being far more important economically.

He said Trump’s trade tariff threats – coming after years "neglect" by the United States – would push countries to seek out less risky options like China, Europe, or the BRICS including Brazil, Russia India, China, and South Africa.

Beijing was a "pragmatic partner" and the Chinese were "here to do business".

South America's exports have doubled to China in the last decade thanks to commodities giants Brazil Chile Peru and Argentina. Meanwhile, the United States has only seen a slight increase in shipments.

Beijing's soft-power in the region has been strengthened by China's large market, which is invaluable to regional leaders who are struggling with slow growth and high debt.

'BULLYING IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD"

In comments made late in January, U.S. Secretary Marco Rubio dismissed as "absurd" the possibility of pushing South American nations like Colombia towards China. He cited the quick victories the administration had achieved. Mexico was forced to negotiate on trade and commit troops to strengthen the border after tariff threats. Meanwhile, a promise to forcefully take over the Panama Canal trade route led that country to leave China's Belt and Road Infrastructure Plan. Colombia and the United States reached a deal following a ban on deportation flight that brought the two countries to the brink a trade conflict.

Ryan Berg, director of the bipartisan Washington think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies said that Trump actually gave Latin America more attention. Rubio, who speaks Spanish, was there for his first overseas visit. A balance was needed between neglect and threats.

The U.S. State Department didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment.

Raja Krishnamoorthi (Democratic ranking member of House select committee on China) told Washington to avoid becoming "the bully" in the neighborhood.

You know what happens when bullies are exposed. "People stand up to bullies," said he. "They do it in ways that can be detrimental to our national security long-term interests."

BOOMING EXPORTS OF COMMODITIES

China has increased its trade lead in South America. This is largely due to the fact that it now exports more grains, and also copper and lithium, two key metals for electrification. Washington still leads Central America but the lead has shrunk. Ten years ago, the United States was Peru's biggest trading partner. China is now the largest trading partner. China has absorbed Peru's copper supply and built a huge port on its coast to boost bilateral trade.

Jose Arista, former Peruvian economy minister, said that the impact on Peru would be minimal. He cited Peru’s free-trade agreement with the United States, and the composition of Andean countries' exports.

China is the top market for Argentine beef and soybeans, even though Milei, a libertarian who is an ardent ally of the United States is also a stronghold in Argentina. China is the largest market for Argentine beef and soybeans, while buying almost a third the country's exports of lithium last year.

An adviser to Milei told a reporter late last year the South American nation had no problems working with China as long as it was in Argentina’s best interest.

Colombia has much closer economic ties to the United States, but diplomatic relations with China were elevated at the end 2023 to "strategic partnerships". Panama's exports to China soared far higher than those to the United States from 2021-2023, before a major copper mine was closed, which led to a steep drop last year. The tensions with the United States are still simmering over the canal.

"A Gift to the Chinese"

China is a natural trade partner for South America despite historical proximity and cultural overlaps between the United States, and its southern neighbors.

China is at a stage of development that makes it more dependent on South America's commodities.

In a rare rebuke to Washington's policy in the region, the Chinese Foreign Ministry issued a press release criticizing the United States of sowing "discords" between China, Latin American countries, and the United States. The statement also pointed out an "irreversible trend" in a deeper cooperation between Latin America and China.

Li Xing is a professor of the Guangdong Institute for International Strategies. He said that Trump's aggressive approach would be beneficial to China, as it would force other countries to hedge their bets.

He said that chaos among the (U.S. allies) is good for China.

(source: Reuters)