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• Airbus's demand is not affected by geopolitical factors

  Airbus' Asia-Pacific President said on Tuesday that the geopolitical and supply chain challenges have not affected aircraft demand or deliveries. Anand Stanley, Airbus Asia-Pacific's President, said that the demand for Airbus aircraft in Asia-Pacific was "continuing to be strong". He made this statement during a Hong Kong briefing on Airbus' 2026-2045 Market Forecast. He said: "Not only do we see an increase in deliveries, but also a willingness to accept deliveries. This is not just in Asia-Pacific. We are also continuing to deliver in the Middle East." Airbus predicts that 42,000 new aircraft will be needed globally in the next 20 year, with 45% of them going to the rapidly growing Asia-Pacific region. Francois Cabaret of Airbus, the head of global forecasting, stated at an event that Chinese carriers have a lot to catch up on when it comes to renewing their fleets. Cabaret reported that before the COVID-19 pandemic Chinese airlines took about 400 'deliverys a year. Since then, the number of deliveries from Airbus Boeing and Chinese planemaker COMAC has fallen to less than half. Airbus data indicates that China, the'single biggest market for commercial jets', will require 8,830 new aircraft in the next 20 years. India will also need 3,480 and the rest of Asia-Pacific 6,880. Airbus' forecast also showed divergent growth in Asia. Airbus has raised its forecast for India's domestic air traffic growth to 9.3%, from 8.9%. China's is cut to 4.7%, from 5.4%.

• Etihad Airways reports a rebound in passenger numbers after the Iran War

  The capacity of Etihad Airlines to carry passengers is higher today than it was a year earlier, the chief executive announced on Monday. Gulf carriers are recovering from the disruptions caused by the U.S./Israeli war against Iran, which has affected revenue this year. The industry standard for measuring passenger capacity, the available seat kilometers (also known as "available seat miles") is 15-17% higher at Etihad in Abu Dhabi than it was a year earlier. Antonoaldo Neves, CEO of Antonoaldo Neves, also stated that the load factor (which measures how well a airline fills available seats) was 92% in august. The airline's goal is to achieve a load factor of 87% or more for the rest of the year. In an interview, he stated: "We are back on the right track." After the Iran War began in February, flights were disrupted for several weeks throughout the Middle East and beyond. However, Middle Eastern carriers - some of the largest in the world - have slowly resumed normal operations. Etihad is expecting to have flat revenue in 2019 compared to the year 2025 due to the closure of airspaces in March and Apr, with profitability expected to be near zero. Neves stated that trade disputes and visa regulations were also causing disruption to travel patterns. "You are dealing with a global issue." "The decisions the U.S. and Canada make on visas affect us here," said he, pointing out the lower?traffic coming from India to Canada and the U.S. Neves is optimistic about the winter season. He said that demand has changed and people are booking later -- echoing views similar to those of Emirates. He said that the airline generated cash to invest into its fleet. Etihad announced earlier on 'Monday' a redesigned cabin for the first, business, and economy classes of its Airbus A321 LR as well as its A330s. Neves stated that these aircraft could be delivered by mid-next year.

• Etihad Airways sees strong demand, higher passenger capacity despite Iran war, CEO says

  Abu Dhabi's Etihad Airlines said Monday that its passenger capacity was above the year-earlier levels as Gulf carriers rebounded from disruption caused by Iran war. Its chief executive also predicted strong demand heading into winter travel season. In an interview, CEO Antonoaldo Neves stated that "we are back on track". He noted that the Available Seat 'Kilometres' - industry standard for measuring passenger carrying capacity - were 15 % to 17% higher today than they were a year ago. He said that the flights were "full, full and full". The load factor (which measures how well an air carrier fills available seats) was 92% in august, while the airline aims to achieve a load factor of 87% or more for the rest of the year. Fuel prices rose and flights were disrupted in the Middle East and elsewhere due to the Iran 'war'. Middle Eastern carriers - some of the world's largest - have had their networks disrupted by conflict. However, they have slowly resumed operations.

• Asian refiners are waiting for word from Saudi Arabia on shipments and expect a tighter supply

  Industry sources reported on Monday that Asian refiners were preparing for a tighter supply of sour oil as they awaited Saudi Arabia's guidance on exports via Red Sea following the attacks on the East-West Pipeline. Saudi Arabia closed a pipeline on Friday after it was attacked. The shutdown helped?push up the oil prices by 3% Monday. Sources at Asian refineries say that Saudi Arabia hasn't said how long it may take to repair the pipeline and Saudi Aramco is not providing updates on shipment schedules or supply allocations. Sources said that they were notified of a delay in loading, but weren't given any specific dates. Three other people said that they were not informed whether the cargoes being loaded from the Red Sea port of Yanbu will be delayed or suspended. However, they did expect delays in shipments as well as a tightening of crude oil supplies. "Getting sour oil is a difficult task. "We will have to pay more as everyone will be chasing the limited supply from?Iraq and UAE, among others," said one refining source. Aramco has not responded to the request for immediate comments. Saudi Arabia's exports through the Red Sea have already dropped sharply over the past few months. ANZ analysts wrote in a Monday note that the yanbu loadings dropped in July to between 500,000-1 million barrels a day, from around 6 million barrels a day in June. This was after Yemen's Houthis announced a blockade. Some ships were loading into ports with their AIS transponders turned off, making it difficult to track flows. Kpler shiptracking showed that the Suezmax-sized tanks Lahore, Aspen, and Kenya B were expected to load crude oil from Yanbu, on Monday. At least one large crude carrier is also expected to load within the next few days. Due to the Houthi Blockade, few refiners from the top-buying region of Asia are willing to load in Yemen. "For China, it is indirect as Chinese refiners stopped loading from the Red Sea including Yanbu and Sidi Kerir since August," Emma?Li said, an analyst at shiptracker Vortexa. Li stated that the pipeline shutdown has pushed Gulf-to Asia tanker rates to new highs and increased costs for Chinese refiners who are transferring Gulf crude by ship to ship.

• Iranian Strait Authority updates list of sanctioned ships

  Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority - set up by Iran to handle requests for passage through the Strait of Hormuz - published on Monday an updated listing of 77 vessels that "violated Iranian protocols" in the Strait of Hormuz. After the recent attacks on oil?transit route in the Strait of Hormuz, and Bab 'el-Mandeb Strait in the Middle East, prospects for peace are as bleak now as they have ever been. The?body said that vessels listed would face restrictions for future passage, including?fines or detention, and confiscation. They also added that vessels cooperating with them would be added to the?list. The authority warned that "Insurance Companies, P&I Clubs, and Classification Societies are advised to refrain from providing service to these vessels in order to avoid any consequences arising when dealing with them," it posted on X. P&I Clubs are mutual insurance organizations that cover ship owners and charterers for maritime third party liabilities. Preliminary ship-tracking data on Monday showed that the number of commodity?vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz dropped to a single-digit number per day over the weekend. This is well below the 10-day-average of 14. The figures do not include any vessels that may have crossed the strait without their Automatic Identification System transponders on to avoid detection.

• Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd will sail more container vessels through the Suez Canal

  Maersk, the shipping group, announced on Monday that it will resume four of its joint container services with Hapag-Lloyd in Germany. They are gradually returning to using this shortcut between Asia and Europe. Most shippers abandoned the Asia-Europe trade route through the Suez Canal earlier this decade after Houthi attacks in the Red Sea forced ships to take the longer trip around Africa. In a statement, Maersk of Denmark said that the Suez Canal was a "vital maritime corridor" between East and West. It is also a major driver for efficient global supply chains. The company added that "by transferring the AE5, AE11 and AE12 services to the transSuez corridor, instead of sailing around Cape of Good Hope," we would be able to offer customers more efficient transit times. Maersk stated that the two companies would continue to'monitor the situation in Middle East closely. Any changes in their'services in the Gemini network will be dependent?on a lack of an escalation of conflicts in the area. Maersk and Hapag Lloyd announced in early July and again in August that they would resume certain services connecting Asia, Europe and the Mediterranean through 'the Suez Canal. Last year, the two companies formed the Gemini network to reduce their shipping costs and increase schedule reliability.

• Emirates reports winter bookings on certain routes up after summer rebound

  Emirates, the Gulf carrier, said that its winter bookings were 'up on the year' on some routes, and it is expanding to new destinations. This comes after a successful summer, which was "above expectations", as airlines in the region recovered from the Iran War. Emirates said in a press release that South Africa, Brazil and India, along with Nepal, were countries where the demand "is currently?tracking forward from last year". The report noted a shift in the way customers make travel decisions, with more people making them closer to departure. Fuel prices and flight disruptions in the Middle East and beyond were affected by the Iran war earlier this year. Middle Eastern carriers have had their networks disrupted by the conflict, but are gradually resuming operations. DUBAI ATTRACTS STRONG INBOUND TRADE, AIRLINE SAYS Emirates stated in a statement that the airline is currently operating around 93% its capacity before disruptions. It added that more than 8,6 million passengers were carried between July and August. Seat load factors of more than 75% were recorded on all flights to and from West Asia, Europe, Middle East, Americas, and Africa during the summer. Dubai's business hub and tourism hub, the Gulf, continued to attract a large number of visitors, including residents, in the months leading up to the new academic year. Dubai Airports, which recorded a drop of more than 30% in traffic during the first half of the year, announced last week that it expects the annual passenger traffic will reach "around 70 million" by the end of the year. Emirates announced on Monday that it will begin flying to Helsinki in October and is adding capacity on routes such as Accra and Hanoi.

• The oil markets have survived the Iran War sprint. Bousso: Now the marathon.

  The expansion of the Mideast conflict to Yemen and the drone attacks on a Saudi oil pipeline are a reminder of an uncomfortable reality: the Iran War is not a temporary shock in energy supplies, but rather a long-term, unpredictable test of economic endurance. The markets are now adjusting to the new, more volatile phase in the conflict. Many of the safeguards which cushioned the initial shock nearly seven months ago have been removed. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, predicted last week that "the conflict" would only end after the midterm elections in November. The tone of the administration has changed significantly from its initial suggestion that the war would only last a few weeks. It is impossible to tell if this new forecast will prove correct, but recent events at two of the most important energy routes in the world suggest that it could be very optimistic. The Gate of Tears Houthis, who are allied with Iran in Yemen, have made rapid progress over the last week. They now hold the Bab el-Mandeb Strait near the southern entrance of the Red Sea. The group, which announced a blockade on the shipping route last July, has reaffirmed that all ships except those of Saudi Arabia are safe to transit. Saudi authorities reported that a series of attacks by drones launched from Iraq temporarily closed Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipe, the kingdom's primary alternative to the Strait of Hormuz. Since the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted by the conflict in February, the?1,200 kilometre (745 mile) pipeline has become critical to the Kingdom. Saudi Arabia offset some of its losses from the Hormuz conflict by more than doubling the west coast exports through the pipeline in the first five month of the conflict. This is equivalent to approximately 4%-5% of global oil supplies. Kpler data shows that shipments in August fell to 2 million bpd, the lowest level since January. This was largely due to the Houthi blockade. According to the International Energy Agency, the output of what was once the largest oil exporter in the world fell to 6,000,000 bpd, the lowest in over three decades. Satellite images suggest that at least one pumping stations was damaged, but the extent of the damage and timeline for repairs are still unclear. Saudi Arabia is also likely to be able draw from stored crude in order to offset any disruptions to pipeline flow for several days. This escalation is occurring at a very dangerous time. Running Dry The disruption of Middle East oil exports - which made up around a fifth if global supplies before the war - has severely eroded world stocks. According to the IEA, inventories have dropped by 507,000,000 barrels or 2.8 million bpd since the war began. The fact that more crude oil has left Hormuz recently than in the beginning of the war is mainly due to more vessels using the route along Oman’s coast, under U.S. Navy surveillance. Kpler estimates that around 5 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil and refinery products have been shipped through the Strait since June. This is a quarter less than pre-war levels. However, the actual figure could be higher, as many ships turn off their navigational systems while transiting. Last week, Iranian attacks on more than a dozen oil tankers trying to transit the Gulf or cross Hormuz were a reminder of how dangerous transits can be. This status quo cannot continue. Middle East is the largest energy producing region in the entire world. It may be possible to reduce crude?exports for a couple of months, but not forever. According to IEA estimations, refineries like diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline have suffered far more than crude oil, with exports remaining 60% below their pre-war level. Diesel in particular has been severely affected, driving prices up to record highs. Saudi Arabian Red Sea exports could be further disrupted, putting additional pressure on global stocks. The latest flare-up may also lead to a reduction in the ship traffic through Hormuz. The fear of entering conflict zones is still a factor for tanker operators. Insurance and freight costs are at an all-time high, and naval escorts only partially mitigate the risk. Different tones How long can these market dynamics last? Iran's leadership sees the conflict as an existential threat and is therefore motivated to exert maximum economic pressure both on the U.S. economy and the global economy before any negotiations. Washington's increasing blockade on Iranian oil exports has severe consequences for the Islamic Republic, and the cost of continuing the conflict indefinitely is higher. Temporarily, the Houthi attacks and advances on Saudi infrastructure could temporarily "shift momentum" back towards Tehran. These competing pressures may eventually bring both parties to the table for negotiations. They could also encourage both sides to continue fighting, hoping that their bargaining positions will be strengthened by economic or military gains. Markets assumed that Trump would find a way out once the rising costs of gasoline and political costs became too much. This outcome was dependent on Tehran's willingness to cooperate. It has so far shown little willingness to cooperate. U.S. policymakers, traders and investors may have adapted to a conflict which appears manageable. If the war continues for several more months as Trump has suggested, there is a risk that the market will be left with fewer shock-absorbing devices. You like this column? Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.

• Hormuz's shipping volume remains below the 10-day average over the weekend, according to data

  Preliminary shiptracking data revealed on Monday that the number of commodity vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz fell to just one digit per day at the weekend. This is well below the 10-day average of 14. Four vessels left the Gulf via the Strait over the weekend, including a Handysize vessel in ballast, an LPG-carrying Handy vessel, a Supramax vessel with fertilizer, and a Suezmax vessel loaded with crude oil or condensate. The data revealed that ten vessels entered the Gulf. These included a Handymax transporting grain, a Panamax transporting metals, and a Supramax transporting dry bulk cargo. The figures do not include any vessels that may have crossed the Strait with their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders off in order to avoid detection. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations announced early Sunday morning that a vessel was hit by an unknown projectile as it transited the 'Strait of Hormuz. The status of the crew, damage assessment, and environmental impact are unknown. Saudi officials reported that a drone strike from Iraq temporarily closed down the East-West oil pipe in Saudi Arabia. This pipeline has been instrumental in relieving the blockage in the Strait of Hormuz. Before the Iran War began on February 28, the strait handled about 125 large commercial vessels each day. These included?tankers and gas carriers as well as?bulkers,?bulkers, and container vessels. This accounted for around 20% of the daily supply of crude oil and natural liquefied?gas in the world. Since mid-July, a U.S. ban on Iran-related shipping has halted Iranian crude exports. Tracking data revealed that 24 and 27 cargo?vessels travelled in the Bab el-Mandeb strait respectively on Saturday 'and Sunday compared to an average of 27 vessels over the past 10 days.

• The oil markets have survived the Iran War sprint. Bousso: Now the marathon.

  The expansion of the Mideast conflict to Yemen and the drone attacks on a Saudi oil pipeline are a painful reminder that the Iran War is not a temporary energy shock but rather a long-term, unpredictable test of economic endurance. The markets are now adjusting to a new, more volatile phase in the conflict. Many of the safeguards which cushioned the initial blow seven months ago, have vanished. Last week, Donald Trump, the president of the United States, predicted that the conflict will end only when the midterm elections in the U.S. are held on November 3. Midterm elections are scheduled for November 3. The tone has changed dramatically from the initial suggestion by the administration that war would only last a few weeks and not even months. It is impossible to tell if this new forecast will prove correct, but recent events at two of the most important energy routes in the world suggest that it could be very optimistic. The Gate of Tears Houthis, who are allied with Iran in Yemen, have made rapid progress over the last week. They now hold the Bab el-Mandeb Strait near the southern entrance of the Red Sea. The group, which announced a blockade on the shipping route last July, has stated that all ships except those owned by Saudi Arabia are safe to transit. Saudi authorities reported that a series of attacks by drones launched from Iraq temporarily closed Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipe, the kingdom's primary alternative to the Strait of Hormuz. Since the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted by the conflict in February, the 1,200-kilometre (745 mile) pipeline has become critical to the kingdom. Saudi Arabia offset some of its losses by increasing west coast oil exports to between 4 and 5 million barrels a day (bpd) during the first five month of the conflict. This is equivalent to about 4% to 5% global oil supply. Kpler?data reports that shipments in August fell to 2 million bpd, the lowest level since January. This was largely due to the Houthi Blockade. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that the output of what was once the largest oil exporter in the world fell to 6,000,000 bpd, the lowest in over 30 years, in August. Satellite images suggest that at least one pumping stations was damaged, but the extent of damage and timeline for repairs are still unclear. Saudi Arabia can also draw from stored crude oil to compensate for any disruption in pipeline flow. This could take several days. This escalation is occurring at a very dangerous time. Running Dry The disruption of Middle East oil exports, which made up around a fifth (or more) of the global supply before the war, has dramatically eroded world stocks. According to the IEA, inventories have dropped by 507,000,000 barrels or roughly 2.8million bpd since the war began. The fact that more crude oil has left Hormuz recently than in the beginning of the war is largely due to more vessels using the route along Oman’s coast, under U.S. Navy surveillance. Kpler estimates that around 5 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil and refinery products have been shipped through the Strait since June. This is a quarter less than pre-war levels. However, the actual figure could be higher, as many ships turn off their navigational systems while transiting. Last week, Iranian attacks on more than a dozen oil tankers trying to transit the Gulf or cross Hormuz were a reminder of how dangerous transits can be. This status quo cannot continue. Middle East is the largest energy producing region in the entire world. It may be possible to reduce crude oil exports from the Gulf for a couple of months, but not forever. According to IEA estimations, refineries like diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline have suffered far more than crude oil, with exports remaining 60% below their pre-war level. Diesel in particular has been severely affected, with prices reaching record highs. Saudi Arabian Red Sea exports are also under pressure, which would increase global inventory levels. The latest flare-up may also lead to a reduction in the ship traffic through Hormuz. The fear of entering conflict zones is still a factor for tanker operators. Insurance and freight costs are at an all-time high, and naval escorts only mitigate the risks to a certain extent. Different tones How long can these market dynamics last? Iran's leadership sees the conflict as an existential threat and is therefore motivated to exert maximum economic pressure both on the U.S. economy and on the global economy before any negotiations. Washington's "increasingly strict" blockade on Iranian oil exports has caused severe economic damage to the Islamic Republic, increasing the cost of continuing the conflict indefinitely. Temporarily, the Houthi attacks and advances on Saudi infrastructure could temporarily shift momentum back to Tehran. These competing pressures may eventually bring both parties to the table for negotiations. They could also encourage both sides to continue fighting, hoping that their bargaining positions will be strengthened by economic or military gains. Markets assumed that Trump would find a way out of the gridlock once rising gas prices and political costs became too painful. This outcome was dependent on Tehran's?willingness to cooperate. It has so far shown little willingness to do so. U.S. policymakers, traders and investors may have adapted to a conflict which appears manageable. If the war continues for several more months as Trump has suggested, there is a risk that the market will be left with fewer shock-absorbing devices. You like this column? Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.

• Trump will review requests to release additional 9/11 records

  On 'Sunday, U.S. president Donald Trump said that he would consider the request of relatives of those who died in the 9/11 attacks for more information about the attack and whether the perpetrators were linked to Saudi Arabia. He told reporters before boarding the plane to return to the U.S. that he would "look at it" when he returned. Families of 9/11 victims have been calling for the declassification of other?records relating to?the events. New York legislators from both parties have asked the Trump administration to release some phone records. This is one of our best chances to get this information out," U.S. Rep. Nicole Malliotakis told ABC News in a recent interview. "I think that hopefully, we'll be seeing this level of transparency from the current administration." New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani released to the public 170,000 pages of documents related to air quality, health concerns, and the city's response to recent attacks.

• Trump says US can stay in Iran to keep oil like Venezuela deal

  Donald Trump suggested on Sunday that the United States might "keep" oil in Iran, drawing a parallel with the U.S. effort to seize a fifth Venezuela's vast reserves of oil. He said that on a trip to Ireland to attend meetings and watch golf he still "expected" the Iran War to end this coming year. This could be just before the midterm elections in the United States due in November. Trump said that gasoline prices would drop "like a rock" when the Iran War ended. Oil traders expect prices to increase again on Monday following an attack on Saudi oil pipeline. Trump stated that he will only do the "right deal", and not one that is "no good". He also said that Iran "constantly" calls for peace talks, a claim that Tehran has rejected in the past. The president did introduce another option, however: "stay engaged with Iran." He made a comparison with the August deal announced by the United States in Venezuela. Trump added that "we'll eventually get out" of Iran unless we decide to stay in the country and keep the oil, like Venezuela. The revenue from Venezuela "paid for the war many times."