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Maguire: Vietnam's industrial boom is driving global coal imports at new heights.

Vietnam is now a major driver for global growth of thermal coal imports, and its use. In 2024, the country increased imports by more than 30% to reach record levels.

According to Kpler, a ship tracking firm, Vietnam's thermal coal imports will rise 31% by 2024 to 44 million tons. This is compared to a mere 1% increase in global thermal coal exports in the past year, to 1,01 billion tons.

The surge in coal imports, the largest power source in Vietnam, is largely due to the booming export-oriented manufacturing sector.

Vietnam's coal purchase growth in 2024 will be higher than the 11% increase in China's imports, which is the world's biggest coal consumer. This means that Southeast Asia saw the highest rise in coal imports last year.

Vietnam's coal demand is expected to continue growing as the country's capacity for coal burning will increase by another 15% when projects currently under construction are complete.

The increased coal capacity is likely to ensure that coal-fired electricity emissions continue to rise in the coming years even though coal burning continues its steady decline outside of Asia.

COAL DEPENDENCE

According to Ember, coal-fired power plants generated half of Vietnam’s electricity between January and October 2024. This is the largest coal share in Vietnam since 2020.

The total coal-fired production increased by 17% between January and October 2023. This helped to drive the annual increase in electricity by 10%.

According to Global Energy Monitor, coal accounts for 39% of the current installed capacity, which is around 70,000 GW. This equates to 27,239 gigawatts.

The next highest generation share is 21% (14.750 GW), followed by solar farms with a share of around 19% (13.100 GW).

Wind farms account for 9% of the total (8,150 GW) and natural gas and fuel oil plants make up 12%.

Around 11,600 GW is under construction, with coal-fired and gas-fired power plants both expected to increase by around 4,000GW.

GEM data show that there are also 3,500 GW worth of new solar, hydro and wind capacity being built.

Vietnam's fossil-fuel-fired energy footprint will grow from 51% to 53.3% when the current construction capacity is completed.

RÉGIONAL NORMS

Although Vietnam's growing fossil fuel production contrasts with the planned capacity changes in Europe, the United States and other parts of the world, Southeast Asia still relies heavily on fossil fuels.

In Southeast Asia, fossil fuels account for 71% of the current capacity of power generation, and 60% of that capacity is under construction.

The strong growth rates in several countries across the region and the large, rapidly expanding workforces of most Southeast Asian nations are key factors behind this dependence on fossil fuels.

According to the International Monetary Fund, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam have populations exceeding 100 million and are expected to grow at a rate nearly twice that of the global average growth rate of 3.2% by 2025.

Leading Role

Vietnam's economy grew by 5.6% per year on average since 2018. This is the fastest rate of growth among Southeast Asian countries during this period.

The key to Vietnam's growth has been the rerouting manufacturing supply chains away from China and towards other low-cost production centers since U.S. president Donald Trump launched a trade conflict with China during his term.

Vietnam's strong connections to global trade routes and its experience in a variety of manufacturing processes, which is rapidly developing, made it the ideal destination for companies that wanted to reduce their production bases in China quickly but still maintain a presence throughout Asia.

The rapid expansion of Vietnam's manufacturing industry led to a dramatic increase in energy consumption. Local power companies were forced to use whatever means they could in order boost their power supply.

According to Ember, the total demand for electricity in Vietnam has risen by 27% between 2018 and 2023.

This growth rate is higher than the 23% increase in Indonesia, the 12% rise globally and the 12% in the Philippines over the same time period. It has put pressure on Vietnam's suppliers of energy.

In recent years, the relentless increase in power consumption has led to frequent power outages. This is especially true during heatwaves where cooling systems are in high demand.

In order to avoid further power problems, Vietnam's energy providers have prioritized stability and cost-efficiency as they expanded their generation. This has led to a continued dependence on coal, the country's main power source.

Between 2030 and 2050, the energy companies of the country plan to increase their generation capacity using renewable and other clean sources.

In the short term, however, coal will remain the preferred power fuel in Vietnam. Its use is expected to continue growing along with the overall economy of the country for the foreseeable. These are the opinions of the author who is a market analyst at.

(source: Reuters)