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Asian spot LNG prices fall on weak demand, but sanctions are on the horizon

The Asian spot prices of liquefied gas (LNG), which are based on the current market price, declined due to a weaker demand. Markets also waited for further clarifications regarding U.S. Russian Energy Sanctions or secondary tariffs.

Average LNG price for September deliveries into North-east Asia Industry sources estimate that the price per million British Thermal Units (mmBtu) is now $11.90, down from $12.10/mmBtu a week ago.

Alex Froley is a senior LNG analyst with ICIS. He said that spot global gas prices had been fairly rangebound since April when the summer gas season began. There was a brief spike in June during the Iran strike.

The market will pay close attention to any new developments regarding tariffs, peace talks and Russia between the U.S.A. and Ukraine. Tariffs that are raised on countries such as India may slow down global trade and reduce energy demand. He said that there is also the possibility of more targeted energy sanctions which could directly affect oil and gas consumption.

Florence Schmit, energy strategist at Rabobank, says that President Trump's 25 percent tariff on India was imposed after a delay of 21 days. This led to a steep drop in the energy market, which included gas.

While gas and LNG supply is not in danger under the current tariff and sanctions threats, the uncertainty over whether gas will be included at some point in the future keeps markets on edge. Gas markets will experience some downtime until then due to the ample supply," added she.

Martin Senior, Argus' head of LNG pricing, says that in South Korea, the spot demand is weak. Many gas-fired plants are unable to compete with coal-fired generators on price. In southern China, however, strong hydro production following heavy rainfall and temperatures similar to seasonal averages has weighed down on gas-fired electricity generation.

Prices in Europe remained stable, as Friday is the deadline for Russia's response to the U.S. ceasefire demand, and secondary oil tariffs are on the table.

In the next few days, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will meet.

Aly Blakeway is the manager of Atlantic LNG for S&P Global Commodity Insights. She said that the anticipated maintenance in Norway later this month and the need to inject more LNG into Europe's underground stores could support the price upwards during the second half August.

S&P Global Commodity Insights estimated its daily North West Europe LNG Marker price benchmark (NWM) for cargoes to be delivered in September ex-ship on August 7 at $10.793/mmBtu, a $0.475/mmBtu reduction from the September futures prices at the TTF Hub.

Spark Commodities placed the price at $10.764/mmBtu while Argus put it at $10.825/mmBtu.

According to Spark Commodities analyst Qasim Afghanistan, the U.S. Arbitrage to North-East Asia via Cape of Good Hope only marginally encourages U.S. cargos for delivery to Europe while the arbitrage via Panama points to Asia.

Afghan said that the global LNG freight rates were relatively stable. The Atlantic rates were assessed at $35750/day while Pacific rates were at $33,000/day. (Reporting and editing by Nina Chestney; Marwa Rashad)

(source: Reuters)