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INDIA RUPEE - Rupee slips and volatility expectations are unruffled due to the looming deadline for tariffs

Investors were focused on trade agreements ahead of the July 9 deadline, and so the rupee fell on Wednesday.

The rupee closed the day at 85.7025 per dollar, a 0.2% decline.

The Malaysian Ringgit fell by 0.7%. The dollar index rose by nearly 0.3%, hovering near the 97 handle.

Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data released on Tuesday offered mild support to the greenback with investors now awaiting a key non-farm payrolls report on Thursday and developments on bilateral trade negotiations.

The rupee's implied volatility (a measure of future expectations) was hovering just a little below its average for the past three months, showing that traders have not yet priced in the possibility of large swings in near-term.

Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has stated that he is not considering extending deadlines for countries to reach trade agreements but expects a deal with India.

ING's note said that while Trump has ruled-out an extension, the markets are wary to take this as a given due to recent reversals.

"The prevailing opinion may be that global trade threats peak just before another last-minute respite," ING stated.

The rupee is expected to remain largely range-bound in the coming year. It will trail Asian counterparts due to the sustained weakness of the dollar.

The rupee will fall 0.1% in three months from its current level to 85.75 dollars. According to the median forecasts of 41 FX analysts, it is expected to trade at 86.13 per dollar in a year and to drop to 85.50 within six months.

(source: Reuters)