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INDIA RUPEE-Rupee dips alongside Asian peers; tariff deadline, Fed cut path in focus

The Indian rupee fell slightly on Wednesday. It followed modest declines among its regional peers, while investors focused on an upcoming U.S. deadline for tariffs as well as clues about the future direction of the Federal Reserve’s benchmark policy rate.

As of 11:15 am IST, the rupee was down about 0.2% at 85.6850 to the U.S. Dollar.

Asian currencies were mostly lower as well, while the dollar index rose 0.1% to 96.7, supported by stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data that lent credence to the Fed's stance of being patient on cutting interest rates.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated on Tuesday that the U.S. Central Bank plans to "wait" and "learn more" about the effect of tariffs on the inflation rate before lowering rates.

The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report due Thursday, and the developments in U.S. India trade negotiations are expected to give traders directional clues.

A trader from a private bank told Reuters that the rupee will likely experience a two-way price movement, with resistance in the zone between 85.45 and 85.50.

The persistent dollar bids by state-run banks at that level has also led traders to speculate that the Reserve Bank of India could be stepping up to absorb dollar inflows.

Donald Trump, the president of the United States, said that the United States and India could come to a deal on trade, which would allow India to avoid the 26% tax announced in April, but paused until July 9.

MUFG stated in a report that "we continue to forecast USD/INR moving lower due to domestic factors supporting the currency and a potential trade agreement with the U.S. with an implicit assumption of a geopolitical status quo."

The firm anticipates that USD/INR will decline to 84 in the first quarter 2026. (Reporting and editing by Janane Vekatraman; Jaspreet Klra)

(source: Reuters)