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INDIA RUPEE-Rupee forward premiums are raised by an increase in Fed rate cuts bets

The Indian rupee gained on Thursday, after weak U.S. employment data supported Fed rate-cut bets. Meanwhile, a U.S. Vietnam trade agreement lifted regional sentiment.

The dollar-rupee future premiums have been boosted by an increased likelihood of rate cuts from the U.S. Central Bank, as well as the 1-year implied return reaching a one-month high.

The rupee was up 0.2% to 85.55 at 11:30 am IST.

Asian currencies were mostly rangebound, while regional equities, including India's benchmark indices BSE Sensex, and Nifty 50, each rose about 0.4%.

After a surprise drop in the private sector payrolls released on Wednesday, odds of a Fed cut in July increased to one in four.

CME's FedWatch Tool shows that the odds of this happening were about 1 in 5 before the release of data.

On Wednesday, President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. had struck a deal with Vietnam. This included a 20% tariff for exports to the U.S. The news fueled hopes that other deals could be reached before the deadline of July 9.

Sources familiar with the negotiations said that U.S. negotiators and Indian negotiators were trying to reach a deal on tariff reductions before the deadline, but there are still some unresolved disagreements.

The rupee is expected to remain range-bound for the near term, with resistance at 85.40 and a support level near the 86 handle.

A trade agreement "would be a positive sentimental experience" for the rupee, but significant gains will only come if it leads to a rise in portfolio inflows. This is what a trader from a foreign bank has said.

The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report for May is likely to be the main focus of attention later in the day. This report will influence the expectations regarding the future trajectory and policy rate benchmarks.

"Quite bearish position on the broad US Dollar index also suggests a near-term pressure on dollar shorts, though the broader tendency is still for Asian currency to continue strengthening," MUFG stated in a report. (Reporting and editing by Nivedita Battacharjee; Jaspreet Klra)

(source: Reuters)