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INDIA RUPEE: Rupee little changed at the end of week, but looming deadline for tariffs in focus

The Indian rupee ended the week with little change as traders awaited the outcome of the U.S. India trade talks. A positive result could help the local currency overcome a stubborn resistance level.

The rupee ended the day at 85.3225, down by about 0.1% on both a weekly and daily basis.

The currency had risen to a one-month peak of 85.25 in the previous session but pared gains on Friday after traders scaled back wagers on rate cuts by the Federal Reserve following a stronger-than-expected U.S. labour market report.

A trader from a foreign bank stated that the rupee was impacted by the dollar demand of importers. Market participants avoided aggressive bullish bets on the local currency in order to reduce the risk carried over the weekend.

The rupee has been unable to hold above the technical resistance around 85.35-85.40 in recent sessions. However, a favorable trade agreement with the U.S. could help the currency overcome this hurdle.

Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has announced that Washington will begin sending letters to other countries specifying what tariffs they will be facing on their imports into the United States on Friday.

In a note referring to these letters, MUFG stated that "if Trump's remarks prove to be accurate, investors will begin to downgrade their growth expectations and increase their inflation expectations. This will only encourage more dollar selling."

Trump announced an agreement with Vietnam earlier this week and the White House hinted at a future deal with India. Talks with Japan, the U.S. closest ally in Asia, have also appeared to be hitting a snag.

Analysts have noted that despite the uncertainty, India's rising foreign exchange reserves as well as the central bank's declining forward book is helping to strengthen the rupee.

(source: Reuters)