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The Indian Rupee is rising along with most Asian currencies; US CPI data in focus

The Indian rupee gained on Tuesday, following gains in many Asian peers. Meanwhile, the dollar index fell ahead of an important U.S. reading on inflation, which will provide clues about the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy.

The rupee closed the day at 85.81 US dollars, an increase of 0.2%.

The local currency briefly fell below the 86-handle in the previous session. However, the quick recovery of the currency prompted traders to place short bets on its liquidation, which boosted its upward momentum.

Bankers say that the rupee's range bound behaviour in the past two weeks has also generated interest among large corporations and interbank participants to sell short-term volatility.

The dollar index fell 0.2% to 97.9 with most Asian currencies increasing, but the offshore Chinese Yuan was barely changed.

"We expect INR trade to have a stronger bias in the short term, unless India is hit with higher tariffs compared to other regions," ING stated in a report.

India is one of the few major trading partners that has not received a letter from White House regarding a tariff rate specific to their country. The two countries are currently negotiating a trade agreement.

ING predicts that the rupee will trade at 86.50 per dollar in six months, and then decline to 88 within a year. The rupee hit its lowest level of 87.95 against the dollar in February.

Data released on Tuesday showed that India's merchandise trade deficit in June was narrower-than-expected at $18.78 billion.

The dollar-rupee premiums have also risen ahead of the U.S. consumer price inflation data that will be released later today.

The economists polled predicted that the core U.S. CPI would rise from 0.1% to 0.3% month-over-month in June.

According to CME's FedWatch, the odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut in July are less than 5%. September odds are just a little bit above 60%. (Reporting and editing by Vijay Kishore; Jaspreet Klra)

(source: Reuters)