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INDIA RUPEE - Rangebound patterns tighten the rupee's relationship with Indian stocks

Investor sentiment has been clouded by a combination of muted portfolio flows and lingering uncertainty about U.S. Tariffs.

The rupee's 30-day index correlation with the Nifty 50 benchmark has risen to 0.66. This is the highest level seen since mid-May. It shows that the currency is more sensitive to movements in local stocks.

The Nifty 50 fell by 0.6% on the day. Meanwhile, the rupee dropped to 86.2025 U.S. dollars per rupee as of 10:50 am IST. This is a 0.1% drop.

Losses in financial stocks led to a divergence between local and regional equities. Asian currencies were mixed, while the dollar index remained unchanged at 98.5.

The rupee's implied volatility for the next month has fallen to a low of just over 4%, and the India VIX stock volatility index has dropped to 11.6 from 14 a few months ago.

A trader from a state-run banking institution noted that foreign portfolio flows have been muted as well, which has contributed to the rangebound price movement.

Apurva Swarup is a vice president of Shinhan Bank India. She said that both the local equity markets and the FX market are "lacking a clear direction at the moment", referring to rangebound movements.

Swarup said that news on the U.S. India trade deal is important to monitor, as it may push the stock market and the rupee out of the ranges they are currently in.

Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said this week that the United States was very close to reaching a deal with India. The reciprocal tariffs on exports from each country to the U.S. will be implemented starting August 1.

Dollar bids by foreign and local banks on the day weighed heavily on the rupee. Traders also pointed to an increased demand to purchase dollars at the daily benchmark rate.

(source: Reuters)