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INDIA RUPEE - Rupee drops for second straight week, as dollar strengthens and outflows weigh

The rupee fell for the second week in a row on Friday as the dollar recovered after a two-year low, and local stocks were pressured by outflows.

The rupee ended the week at 86.1475. This is 0.4% less than its previous closing of 86.0750 and 0.4% more than a week ago.

The Nifty 50 index, India's benchmark stock market index, dropped 0.7% in the past week while MSCI's regional stocks gauge excluding Japan rose 0.8%.

A trader from a large bank stated that the rupee will "likely hover closer to 85.50 than 86.50" in the near term.

The trader stated that the Indian rupee was impacted by corporate dollar demand, equity outflows and the Indian currency.

In July, overseas investors sold approximately $300 million in Indian equity after investing $1.7 billion the month before.

The dollar index is on track for its second weekly increase, thanks to strong U.S. data that has reduced bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts.

The futures market for interest rates is currently pricing in a Fed rate cut of about 45 basis point for the rest of the year. This was down from 50 basis points earlier this week.

In a note, ING stated that it expected the 14bp residual price to be reduced gradually.

ING warned that the "hawkish rethinking" of Fed rate cuts could harm the euro, while the election in Japan this weekend may push the yen down to 150 yen.

The Fed will hold four meetings in total over the remainder of 2025. One of these will be on July 29-30.

The euro and yen are on track for weekly losses of 0.5% each.

The focus will be on the progress of U.S. India trade negotiations ahead of the deadline of August 1, for the country-specific tariffs that apply to exports into the United States. (Reporting and editing by Mrigank Dahniwala, Jaspreet Klra)

(source: Reuters)