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Maguire: US coal binge allows Asia to leapfrog the West on clean energy push

In 2025, major Asian economies such as China, India and Japan, and Vietnam, had cleaned up their energy generation systems more than the United States or Europe. This would lead to a divergence of momentum in the East-West energy transition in 2026.

According to Ember's data, during the first 10 month of 2025 the United States was the only major market that increased the carbon intensity of its power generation in comparison to the previous year.

The U.S. power industry's emissions from fossil fuels have reached three-year-highs, with a 13% increase.

The CO2 emissions of European power companies have increased this year in comparison to 2024. China, India and Japan have also seen a decline year-to date.

As winter approaches in the Northern Hemisphere we can expect a higher generation of fossil fuels in Asia, Europe, and North America over the next few months. This will increase the carbon intensity in all major power systems.

The U.S. will likely continue to lead the pack when it comes to carbon emissions, as the power companies in the U.S. opt to increase output of coal plants over cleaner natural gas plants due to a sharp rise in natural gas prices in the U.S.

CARBON INTENSE GLIDE PATHS

Over the last five years, all major power systems have reduced the carbon intensity (or the amount of CO2 released per kilowatt-hour (KWh) produced of electricity).

Only China has been able to consistently reduce its intensity year-on-year since 2019. This is largely due to the world's leading deployment of clean energy sources, which have allowed utilities worldwide to reduce their fossil fuel dependence.

Ember data show that from January to October 2025, China’s carbon intensity in power production averaged 562 g/KWh. This compares to 670 g/KWh?in 2019.

Other major power systems also have seen at least an annual increase in carbon intensity. This is due to a combination of increasing power demand, patchy supplies of clean energy and policy changes.

Only the U.S. system, however, has seen an increase in CO2 emissions per KWh from January to October 2025. This is compared to the 381.2 grams in the same period in 2024.

Europe's carbon intensity has decreased by around 2% since 2024. India, Japan and Vietnam have also seen reductions.

COAL-HEAVY GROWTH

Asian economies are still far more dependent on coal than major power grids in Europe and North America.

As of this year, India has generated approximately 70% of its power from coal. China is at 55% coal, Vietnam is at 48% coal and Japan is at around 27% coal.

The U.S. coal power plant share is approximately 16%. In comparison, Europe generated less than 13% its electricity this year from coal-fired plants.

The U.S., however, is the only country to have seen a sharp increase in the share of coal in the overall power mix this year. This is why U.S. carbon intensities are out of sync with other regions.

In 2024, the coal share in U.S. electricity will be 14.6%. This means that there is an increase of 11% in the share of coal-fired power plants in utility electricity supply compared to last year.

Ember data indicates that coal plants were the main source of growth in electricity supplies in the U.S. during the period January-October. They accounted for 73% of total increases in electricity from January to October.

The coal share in all major power markets has been much lower, especially in India, where the extra coal-fired production accounted for just half of the increase in overall electricity supply.

Tracking Trends into 2026

The roughly 50% increase in natural gas prices averaged this year has led to a significant increase in coal-fired electricity generation in the U.S. As utilities continue to be under pressure, they are trying their best keep energy prices low for consumers.

The price of natural gas is expected to stay the same through winter, thanks to the record demand for LNG from exporters who are competing with utilities on the U.S. market.

The outlook for continued strength in gas prices could keep coal-fired production levels high in the U.S. well into 2026 and ensure that the U.S. trend in carbon intensity keeps rising.

China and Europe have been suffering from economic hardships that have affected the overall industrial activity. This has impacted on demand for power in factories, chemical and steel plants, and other large consumers.

The carbon intensity of these markets will increase if economic activity improves in China and Europe.

The growth of the Chinese economy will boost economies throughout Asia. This could lead to a significant increase in carbon intensity for the power sector in Asia by 2026.

The U.S. will continue to be the leader in carbon intensity for 2025. This is a direct contradiction of the global trend towards cleaner energy networks.

These are the opinions of a columnist who writes for.

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(source: Reuters)