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Maguire: It's getting harder to track China's economy, commodity needs and its currency.

Commodity traders and economists only needed a few data points until 2020 to gauge the direction and health of China's economic growth, as well as the volume of raw materials required to fuel and power the world's biggest trading partner and goods-producing nation.

Over the last five years, China's economy has changed from being heavily reliant upon heavy industry and construction to one that is driven by manufacturing and services which are less material and energy intensive.

Here is a guide of the most important old and new data needed to understand the second largest economy in the world, and the global implications Beijing's recent push to increase domestic consumption could have.

Old Timers

In the olden days, traders of commodities only needed to glance at China's crude oil imports and iron ore exports to determine the overall health of the country's economy.

For the majority of this century, import trends for both commodities rose steadily, reaching successive records. They acted as an indicator of the appetites of the transportation, industrial, and construction sectors of the country.

In the last decade, two trends have combined to make the imports of iron ore and oil from China less relevant: the electrification and debt crisis in the Chinese property sector.

International Energy Agency data show that electric vehicles will account for 40% of China's auto sales by 2024. This will have a significant impact on fuel consumption.

China's huge property sector used to account for up to a quarter its economy. Manufacturers of steel, ceramics and glass, as well as wiring and plumbing materials, all depended on this industry for their sales.

A series of defaults on debt by major construction companies has cooled the property market, sending prices down and slowing construction.

Iron ore is a key ingredient in steel making, and this has led to a decline in China's iron ore demand. It also makes iron ore volumes less of a reliable indicator for China's economy.

China's cement, crude steel and insulating glasses, as well as welded steel tubes, have also been trending lower since 2020, due to the downturn in the construction industry.

Prices, sales, and investments in China's real estate sector all decreased in February 2025.

On the Up

While many construction sites in China have turned into ghost towns, production lines for electric vehicles, solar cells and rechargeable batteries are humming, highlighting how manufacturing is now a major economic driver.

China's production of key manufacturing-centric ingredients has also exploded, in contrast to the output trends of inputs used on building sites.

The output of copper, aluminum, and ethylene, which are used to make appliances, cars, tech gadgets, is at a record high, as well as the output of sulfuric acid, which is used in metal refinement.

China's production of electricity, power generation equipment, and electric motors has also been increasing, which is helping to fuel the continued rise in manufacturing.

SHIPPING OUT

China's exports have also reached new heights in the last year. However, the new tariff regime set up by U.S. president Donald Trump could cause further headwinds.

In 2025, EVs, solar cells, microchips, and rechargeable batteries could all suffer setbacks if global purchases decline because of the increased costs triggered due to tariffs.

Trump's tariff campaign is centered on the persistent trade deficit between the United States and China. The United States has been in deficit territory with China since the early 1980s.

The short-term deficit in 2020 was the lowest in 14 years, due to Trump's tariffs in his first term and the sharp drop in U.S. imports of goods from China in the early lockdowns triggered by COVID-19.

The monthly deficit, however, has averaged about $70 billion in the last two years and is still a point of contention for Trump's second term.

Commodity traders and economists will continue to be interested in how China's businesses and policymakers navigate the new tariff landscape, and adjust their product output and export and import flows.

It is important to track these product flows, and their impact on the U.S. - China deficit. This requires more detailed data than crude oil imports and iron ore imports.

These are the opinions of a market analyst at.

(source: Reuters)