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Portugal's power swaps with Spain are still suspended amid a blackout investigation
The energy minister announced on Friday that Portugal supplies electricity to its clients using its own resources, as the power exchanges between Portugal and Spain are still suspended due to an investigation into the cause of the blackout this week. On Monday, Spain experienced a massive outage of its electricity grid. This also caused a power outage throughout Portugal as it imported cheaper renewable energy from Portugal. After a meeting online with her Spanish counterpart Sara Aagesen, acting Energy Minister Maria da Graca Carvalho said to reporters: "For the time being, we will continue without exchanging electric with Spain, as a precaution. This shows the independence that we currently have." She did not say when the power exchanges would resume, but physical connections between the two countries had already been restored. The Minister said that she had asked European Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen for an interim report to be produced "much faster" than the usual six-month period. She stated that the authorities had "no clue" as to what caused the outage. Millions of bits of data still need to be analysed in Portugal, Spain, and Europe by independent experts. Aagesen, in a separate statement, said that the two countries had agreed to identify jointly the causes of this blackout and to take measures to prevent it from happening again. Da Graca Carvalho stated that Portugal will make efforts to improve its electrical system's resilience and speed up recovery from a power outage. The Monday 10 hour delay was "an exemplary response". "Nobody can be protected 100% from this event".
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Stocks rise on positive jobs data and signs of trade tensions easing
Wall Street and European shares surged on Friday, while the dollar fell as investors appetite for risk was revived due to a positive U.S. Employment Report and signs that China is willing to negotiate tariffs. The three main U.S. indexes rose sharply, with the more sensitive sectors of financials, transportations and microchips performing better than the overall market. The S&P 500, Nasdaq and blue-chip Dow are all on course to remain essentially unchanged for the week. According to the Labor Department's report, the U.S. economy created more jobs last month than was expected, and wage inflation was below consensus. This prompted a rise in U.S. Treasury benchmark yields. China's Commerce Ministry announced that Beijing was "evaluating" Washington’s offer to have talks about President Donald Trump’s crippling tariffs. This could signal a possible de-escalation in the market-shaking trade war. Paul Nolte is a senior wealth advisor & Market Strategist at Murphy & Sylvest, located in Elmhurst. He said, "The jobs data was very positive; it shows that the economy's doing well." "There is still discussion about the impact of tariffs but, so far, this data hasn't shown up in many of the numbers." Nolte said, "It is encouraging that China is willing and able to sit down at the table." But for now, this is just talk. "Let's see what happens." The latest quarterly earnings report shows that the lack of clarity surrounding U.S. China trade duties contributed to a marked decline in long-term expectations for U.S. companies. Apple and Amazon.com released their quarterly earnings on Thursday, with disappointing estimates. Apple's tariff costs of $900 million were also included. These reports have taken some of the wind out of the sails for the "magnificent 7" group of megacap stocks related to artificial intelligence, which enjoyed a recovery this week. General Motors has warned that earnings will be hit by $4 to $5 billion and American Airlines has withdrawn its profit forecasts. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 422.95 points or 1.04% to 41,175.91. The S&P 500 gained 65.11 points or 1.16% to 5,669.25. And the Nasdaq Composite increased 220.24 points or 1.24% to 17,930.98. The European stock market surged on renewed hopes for Sino-U.S. Trade Negotiations. The MSCI index of global stocks rose by 12.43 points or 1.49 percent to 847.58. The pan-European STOXX 600 Index rose 1.68% while Europe's broad FTSEurofirst 300 Index rose 36.24 point, or 1.73%. Emerging market stocks gained 24.83 points or 2.23% to 1,136.80. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan closed up 2.54% at 595.66. Japan's Nikkei gained 378.39, or 1.04% to 36,830.69. Treasury yields increased as investors reduced their bets that the Federal Reserve would cut rates in June due to strong employment numbers. Treasuries were also under pressure because of fears that Japan would use its massive U.S. Debt holdings to negotiate in trade negotiations. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes increased 6.6 basis points from late Thursday to 4,297%. The 30-year bond rate rose by 4.4 basis points, from 4.737% to 4.7809% late Thursday. The yield on the 2-year note, which is usually in line with expectations of interest rates for the Fed's, increased by 8.8 basis points, to 3.789% from 3.701%, late Thursday. The dollar's losses continued after the positive U.S. employment report. The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket of currencies, including the yen, the euro and others) fell by 0.59%, reaching 99.55. Meanwhile, the euro rose by 0.61%, hitting $1.136. The dollar fell 0.89% against the Japanese yen to 144.13. Crude continued to fall as investors positioned ahead of a decision expected by OPEC+ boosting output. U.S. crude dropped 1.55% to 58.32 per barrel. Brent was down to $61.26 a barrel, a 1.4% drop on the day. The gold price rose, but was headed to a weekly decline amid eased trade tensions. Spot gold increased by 0.34%, to $3.251.24 per ounce. U.S. Gold Futures increased 1.33% to an ounce of $3,252.60.
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Why did the German spy agency classify AfD, the far-right party, as "extremist"?
The German spy agency classified the far right Alternative for Germany (AfD), on Friday, as "extremist". This allowed it to intensify monitoring of the largest opposition party in the country. The Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution's (BfV) decision was based on a confidential 1,100-page report prepared by experts. According to the security officials that have seen the report, here are some key findings and evidence: Anti-Migrant Incitement Officials from the parties often refer to citizens with immigrant backgrounds as "passport Germans", and use terms like "population replacement" when describing what they claim is the impact of mass migration. Knife migrants or knifemen were sometimes used to describe migrant species. In October 2023 the party leadership posted on social media that the Greens had a "Population Replacement General Plan", a plan which echoed "General Plan East", a Nazi label for the Nazis' plan to genocide Jews and other ethnicities in Eastern Europe during World War Two. Alice Weidel, the party co-leader in July 2023, described knife crime as being exclusive to people from "a totally alien culture" and violent cultures. It's not in our culture... It is only found in cultures of Africa and Middle East". Hannes Gnauck, a senior party official, said on the 11th of August: "We need to be able again to decide who belongs to our nation and who does not." It's not just about a passport. We're all connected by an invisible thread that we don't need to explain. RACISM The youth wing of the party ran a campaign that included a song and video clip depicting Black men in an "extraordinarily racist" way. ISLAMOPHOBIA Weidel, in 2023, claiming that 761 mass rapes had occurred in Germany in the year prior to this one, said: "What is happening on German streets today is jihad." The German people are being targeted by a religious war. ATTACKING GERMAN DÉMOCRACY Tino Chrupalla, co-leader of AfD, said that the destruction of Nord Stream's gas pipelines by 2022 and the lack immediate response was proof "that this nation can't be sovereignty. It's not the way you respond when you are attacked. He later described mainstream parties as "American vassals". After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the Nord Stream pipelines that brought Russian gas to Germany under the Baltic Sea were destroyed.
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Asian spot LNG prices drop to new lows of 1 year on weak demand
The price of Asian spot LNG fell to a record low this week due to weak demand. Trade wars also raised concerns about long-term Asian demand. Average LNG price for delivery to North-east Asia in June Industry sources estimate that the price of a million British thermal unit (mmBtu) was $11.00, its lowest since mid-May 20,24. It had been $11.80/mmBtu a week ago. "LNG prices expectations have changed in the past two and a quarter months." The U.S. tariff war will slow down global demand. European gas storage targets have been weakened, and imports to China, the world's largest LNG buyer, have dropped. Froley stated that China's demand for LNG remains subdued. LNG imports in April 2025 will be down 26% compared to April 2020, and imports from January to April this year will be down 23% compared with the previous year. Toby Copson said there is very little demand for spot cargoes in the East, and utilities haven't yet stepped in to cover cooling needs. "Sentiment has a negative tone. I do not see a bottom yet. We might see rates stabilizing if price-sensitive nations begin to offer attractively lower prices. Trade wars can destroy demand, but there are plenty of supplies available," Copson said. According to Florence Schmit, energy strategist at Rabobank, trade tensions are continuing to impact the outlook for LNG consumption this year, especially in Asia. China exported record quantities of LNG last April. Martin Senior, Argus’ head of LNG pricing, stated that South Korean buyers were looking for cargoes in order to replenish low storages. Indian buyers have also increased their demand due to the low prices. In Europe, the north-west European delivered price fell, mainly because new regulations by the German government reduced its own national storage targets for this Winter to 70% from 90%. Senior said that this has led to a reduction in summer demand expectations. Schmit, a Rabobank analyst, said that the weakening of the Asian economy would ease the supply shortages in Europe during the summer injecting season. He also added that U.S. sanctions against Russia's energy industry and EU plans to phase-out Russian gas are still bullish risks on the gas market. S&P Global Commodity Insights estimated its daily North West Europe Gas Marker (NWM), a price benchmark, for cargoes to be delivered in June ex-ship on May 1. This represents a $0.75/mmBtu reduction from the gas price in June at the Dutch TTF Hub. Spark Commodities set the price at $9.969/mmBtu for June delivery, while Argus estimated it at $9.860/mmBtu. According to Spark Commodities analyst Qasim Afghanistan, the U.S. Arbitrage to North-East Asia via Cape of Good Hope is still closed. However, the arbitrage via Panama remains marginally pointing to Asia. Afghan said that on Friday, the LNG market saw a second-week increase in the Atlantic to $40,750/day. Meanwhile, the Pacific rates were unchanged at $22,550/day. (Reporting and editing by Nina Chestney; Marwa Rashad)
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Media reports that Malaysian Petronas is accused of violating Sarawak State laws
Malaysia's state energy company Petronas announced on Friday that its subsidiary Petronas Carigali received notices from Sarawak State Government regarding its gas distribution and processing rights in the state. Local media reported it did not possess proper permits. Petronas didn't give any details about the notices, but local media reported that its Miri Crude Oil Terminal was being operated without a license. According to reports, the state government gave Petronas Carigali a deadline of 21 days for the company to get the license required or face financial penalties. Petronas stated that its subsidiary was authorized by federal law to carry out activities for the parent company, and adhere to all applicable laws. Petronas has said that it is obliged to protect national interests and uphold federal law. "Petronas continues to engage constructively with the Sarawak government and the federal government. It will also work closely together to explore future arrangements that ensure regulatory clarity and operation continuity to the benefit of industry, state and nation. It said: "We are committed to ensuring the rights and interest of all parties including investors and end-consumers are taken into consideration." Petronas is engaged in Negotiations stalled Petros, Sarawak’s state-owned energy company, has been working with us since last year. The impasse raised concerns over the possible impact on Petronas, which is a major income source for the federal government. Sarawak contains more than 60% Malaysia's natural gas reserves. The Sarawak State Government has been contacted for comment.
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Heavy rains and strong winds hit Indian capital, killing four people.
The chief minister of the capital territory said that four members of a sleeping family died during a storm in New Delhi, after a fallen tree fell on their room. One person was also injured. According to the India Meteorological Department, there were wind speeds between 70 and 100 kph in the city, as well as lightning, and it experienced its heaviest downpours since May 2021. In a recent post on X, Chief Minister Rekha gupta stated that "instructions were given to the district to provide immediate assistance to (the affected family)." The city's airport was also affected by low visibility and flooding, and there were delays in metro services and traffic jams at several locations. The study, commissioned by the charity WaterAid in the last month, showed that the weather in many of the most densely-populated cities of the world has been erratic. It goes from droughts to flooding and back to dryness as the rising temperatures disrupt the global water cycle. Last month, unseasonable heavy rainfall also hit eastern and central India as well as parts of Nepal. More than 100 people were killed. (Reporting and editing by Aidan Lewis in New Delhi, Surbhi Misra)
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Four US LNG cargos diverted from Europe to Asia
Analysts and shipping data indicate that four cargoes of LNG bound for Europe have changed their course in Asia over the past two weeks after European prices dropped below the Asian benchmark, creating an arbitrage opportunity for eastward deliveries. In a year where Europe could need an additional 250 LNG cargoes in order to replenish its gas reserves ahead of the winter, more cargoes diverted from the Atlantic basin to the Pacific basin would increase the competition between the two basins. Go Katayama said that the combination of better netbacks for Asia and lessening European price support rather than stronger Asian demands had led to an economic case, even if it was narrow, for redirection. He said that "JKM premiums have increased over TTF, resulting in improved netbacks on U.S. origin cargoes." This has reopened arbitrage channels, especially for delivery windows from June to July. The Japan-Korea Marker (JKM), is the benchmark for LNG spot cargoes in Asia. The Dutch Title Transfer Facility is the benchmark price for natural gas in Europe. Kpler data shows that the Energy Innovator, owned by Germany's RWE and controlled by Freeport LNG, Texas, left on April 7th. The tanker was originally destined for Dunkirk in France, but diverted to Cape of Good Hope by April 16. Shell's New Nature tanker, which had departed Sabine Pass LNG in Louisiana from Europe on April 16, also changed direction to head south. Alex Froley is a senior LNG analyst with data intelligence company ICIS. He said that two more tankers also had later arrival dates. This suggests a change of destination from Europe to Asia, which would add a few weeks travel time. He said that the arrival date of the Pacific Success tanker was changed from April 22 until May 18 and the arrival date of the Orion Spirit tanker from April 24 to may 14. The estimated arrival time on those indicates that they changed from a two week journey across the Atlantic, to a longer trip to Asia. Kpler data indicates that the Orion Spirit, and Pacific Success, controlled by TotalEnergies were originally bound for Dunkirk in France, and Rostock in Germany, respectively. Froley added that despite the project's proximity to Europe the first load from the Greater Tortue Ahemeyim offshore Mauritania, Senegal and the British Sponsor is headed towards Asia. Kpler data indicates that BP's British sponsor is heading for Singapore. "However," Froley said, "Europe should continue to receive large quantities of LNG. If storage injection rates begin to slow down, Europe will likely increase prices to pull back more cargoes." He added that Asian demand has not been growing strongly. The change in the markets is more about how fast they have been moving lower over recent weeks due to weaker economic expectations. Asian Spot LNG Prices Since mid-April, the price of oil has been at a near-year-low as demand remains tepid. On April 25, they were at $11.80 for a million British thermal unit (mmBtu). The benchmark contract for the first month at the Dutch TTF hub was 32.10 euros or $10.62/mmBtu on Thursday. The contract had previously closed at $10.64/mmBtu in April.
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CANADA-CRUDE-Discount on Western Canada Select heavy crude narrows; remains historically tight
The discount between the benchmark North American West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures and Western Canada Select heavy crude (WCS), continued to narrow on Thursday. This trend continues what has been historically tight prices this spring. WCS for June deliveries in Hardisty (Alberta) settled at $9.35 per barrel below WTI according to brokerage CalRock. It had settled at $9.70 below the U.S. benchmark Wednesday. In recent months, Canadian heavy crude oil has traded at a discount partly due to the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion that was opened exactly one year prior. According to RBC Capital Markets, the average differential between WCS and WTI has narrowed by $4 or 23% in the last year. The expansion of the pipeline increased Canada's capacity to export oil, and reduced the volatility in prices that occurred historically whenever Canada's producers ran out pipeline space. Alberta Energy Regulator data shows that crude production continues to increase in Canada's oil producing province, despite the ongoing uncertainty in the global economy due to U.S. Trade Policy. Alberta crude production, according to the regulator's latest figures, reached a record of 4.2 millions barrels per day in March this year. This represents a 3.6% year-over-year increase. * Oil prices rose nearly 2% globally on Thursday, after U.S. president Donald Trump announced secondary sanctions against Iran following the postponement of a fourth round U.S. Iran talks. The bulk of Canadian crude oil trading takes place between the first day of every month and the day before pipeline nominating deadlines. Reporting by Amanda Stephenson, Calgary; editing by Shailesh Kuber
South Korean mills purchased 35,800 t wheat from US traders, traders claim
European traders reported on Friday that a group of South Korean mills purchased an estimated 35.800 metric tonnes of milling grain to be sourced in the United States at an international auction earlier this week.
The purchase included several wheat varieties and all were purchased on a FOB basis (free on board) for shipment between 15 July and 15 August.
Traders said that they believed the seller to be United Grain Corporation.
Traders said that the purchase included 9,400 tons soft white wheat with a protein content between 9.5% to 11%, bought at $230.25 per ton FOB. 800 tons soft white wheat with a maximum protein of 9% was purchased at $235.06 per ton FOB.
The traders also said that 11,200 tons of dark northern spring wheat with a minimum of 14% protein were purchased at $263.85 per ton.
The reports reflect the assessments of traders, and it is still possible to estimate prices and volume later. Michael Hogan is the reporter. Mark Potter (Editing)
(source: Reuters)