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Maguire: How to gauge China's potential power rebound after the trade truce

The recent agreement between the United States of America and China to pause hostilities in trade for 90 days is likely to spur new activity within China's massive manufacturing sector. This will have repercussions on the country's need for energy.

The trade truce, on paper, is only temporary and could be rescinded by either party if they feel unfairly treated in negotiations.

The sharp reduction in tariffs during the truce period marks a significant deescalation of trade tensions and should lead to a rebound in output and sentiment among Chinese manufacturers.

Here are some key metrics you can use to track the impact of the trade tensions reduction on power generation, emissions and manufacturing output in China in the next few months.

CLEAN START

As factory production increases across China, the share of clean energy sources in China's overall mix of electricity generation will decline.

Ember data shows that clean power sources made up a record 39% (950 TWh) of China's electric supply during the first quarter 2025. This was aided by a 18% increase in the production of clean electricity from the same period of 2024.

Clean energy has increased its share in the mix of power generation partly due to Beijing’s efforts to reduce reliance on fossil fuels, which have resulted in a steady increase in clean power production capacity.

The subdued tone in China's manufacturing sector between January and March also contributed to a higher share of clean power.

Since the beginning of the year, scores of Chinese factories have reduced their output as Trump's tariffs threatened or came into effect. This has led to a reduction in the power consumption of these plants.

In turn, this allowed utilities to reduce the use of fossil fuels in electricity generation. Ember data show that fossil fuel-fired power production was down by 4% compared to the previous year, at 1,494 TWh.

The use of fossil fuels in China's energy mix will continue to increase, and any sustained improvement in industrial output and factory production is likely to give it a boost.

SUMMER PEAK

The impending factory production rebound is likely to occur during China's traditionally peak period of power consumption. This could lead to record electricity generation and usage over the summer, regardless of whether the trade truce lasts.

China's electricity demand peaks in the summer, due to a greater use of air conditioners. The temperatures can reach over 85 degrees Fahrenheit (30 degrees Celsius) in Beijing on average.

In order to meet the high demand, power companies tend to rely heavily on fossil fuels, particularly during evenings, when air conditioner usage increases and solar farm production falls.

China's energy firms could be forced to reduce fossil fuel generation more than usual if China's massive manufacturing sector increases its collective output in the summer.

The use of fossil fuels could reverse the gains that were made in China by using clean energy sources during the first quarter of this year.

The increased use of fossil fuels could also cause a new rise in emissions from the power sector, which are already at their highest during summer. This could reach a record high in 2025, if fossil energy production also reaches new heights.

OUTPUT MOTOR MONITORING

The trade truce is likely to spark an increase in manufacturing, but some materials will see a greater rise in production.

Assemblies will increase and stockpiles will be replenished, resulting in a significant increase in the production of resins, plastics, and copper wires.

Tariffs reduced, exports of Chinese goods and products are expected to increase in the next few months.

Solar cells, toys, furniture, and other items that are not easily produced at scale elsewhere should respond quickly to the lower tariffs. This can give a good indication of the health of China's manufacturing industry.

The traffic at key Chinese container port could also be a good indicator of the health of Chinese manufacturers. Shipments of semi-finished and finished products are expected to increase in the coming months.

These are the opinions of a columnist who writes for.

(source: Reuters)