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RUPEE INDIA-Raise in overnight swap rates, lower US bond yields increase forward premiums

The dollar-rupee premiums in India rose across all tenors due to a combination of an increase in the cost of borrowing rupees overnight and a drop in short-term U.S. Treasury rates, while the local currency remained flat on the spot market.

The overnight dollar-rupee swap rate rose on Wednesday to 0.38 paisa, pushing near-tenor premiums up to a month-high and boosting long-term premiums, helped by a drop in the yield of one-year U.S. Treasury bonds.

The 1-month forward premium increased to 12.50 paisa while the 1-year implied rate rose by 2 basis point to a 3-week high of 2,05%. The yield on the 1-year U.S. Treasury was at 4.08% last after it hit a 2-week low overnight.

According to traders, tighter rupee liquidity within the banking system has pushed the overnight swap rate up.

India's banking sector liquidity is at a low point for the past seven weeks, but is expected to rise in the next few days. This could help reduce near-tenor premiums.

A trader from a large bank stated that "there is limited interest to run a position paid" citing the possibility of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged for a longer period of time and the growing expectation of a rate reduction by the Reserve Bank of India at its policy meeting in August.

The rupee, on the spot market, was almost flat at 86.37 U.S. dollars as of 12:15 pm, sandwiched between the positive signals from gains in many regional peers, and the routine dollar demand by local importers.

The dollar index was steady at 97.5, while the Chinese yuan strengthened to a three-week high, buoyed by fresh signs of easing trade tensions and a persistently stronger-than-expected guidance fix by the country's central bank.

U.S. officials and Chinese officials will discuss an extension of the August 1 deadline for negotiations on a trade agreement. (Reporting and editing by Jaspreet K. Kalra)

(source: Reuters)