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Maguire: 'Roi-Hormuz is half-open, but tanker prices are recovering in hope:
Oil tankers behave as if the Strait of Hormuz was reopening, even though the waterway is only partially navigable. The signals are clear, from ship tracking data to the freight rates: Owners and charterers have moved early to position their vessels for a possible return to Gulf exports. The gap between expectations and reality is still wide. This leaves the global oil transportation system on a fragile "middle ground" between crisis and recovery. Signs of Recovery Real-time vessel movement is the most obvious?evidence? of adjustment. The number of tanker transits in Hormuz has begun to increase. During the conflict they were reduced to a fraction of their normal levels. The flow of vessels through the strait was around 90-110 per day before the war started on 28 February. However, the number of vessels dropped by over 90% during the peak disruption. Recent data show that traffic is picking up again. On some days, dozens of ships are crossing the channel, but levels are still well below pre-crisis standards and subject to sudden reversals. This stop-start recovery highlights a crucial point: The system is still not functioning normally. Shipowners are testing the system in real-time to see if it's safe and commercially viable. On the Road Again Ballast movements - empty ships heading to the Gulf - provide a much clearer indication of future expectations. These signals are very strong. The data from ship tracking shows that more empty tankers are entering the Gulf. This includes LNG carriers connected to Qatar, which have resumed voyages in Hormuz - for the first time since the conflict began. Exports of laden goods are also still constrained. Cargo volumes are still half what they were pre-conflict, reflecting operational limitations and persistent security risks. This divergence can be critical. This divergence shows that the fleet has committed ships ahead of actual demand -- in anticipation of cargoes following. This positioning effort is compounded with one of the biggest shipping backlogs ever recorded. The Gulf is still clogged with hundreds of vessels, creating a bottleneck which could take several weeks to unwind. The result is a fleet which is actively reshaping itself as congestion eases and access improves. RATE MOVEMENTS The freight rates reinforce this picture in an extremely dramatic way. According to LSEG, earnings for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) on key Middle East routes fell to their lowest level since the beginning of the conflict as vessels accumulated before the recovery of actual moveable cargoes. The daily rate for a VLCC to China from the Middle East is currently around $287,000. This was down from over $500,000 just before the peace agreement was announced. The rates for smaller tankers, on the other hand, have increased as the Arabian Gulf has a high concentration of vessels. Fuel tanker rates from Nigeria to Netherlands, for example, have increased from $63,000 per day at the end of June to more than $112,000 today. The fleet managers also sent refined product tankers to the Middle East, anticipating that regional refineries would need to clear their inventories accumulated during the conflict in order for them restart production. In essence, the market is pricing a volatile mixture of limited supply, increased risk, and anticipated access. The partial reopening of the Gulf is starting to change global trade patterns, which were drastically altered by the disruption. Oil flows around Cape of Good Hope and other longer routes were required due to the severe restrictions on Hormuz traffic. This led to a significant increase in shipping distances, costs, and time. Shipping analyst reports say that these diversions have pushed up the ton-miles demand, a key indicator of shipping activity. Distances for some trades almost tripled as vessels avoided chokepoints. Early signs indicate that these patterns from the crisis era may begin to unravel as Gulf exports gradually resume. As of now, however, alternate routes are still being used, reflecting the persistent uncertainty about access through Hormuz. A CONFIDENCE PLAY The tanker market faces a constraint that is not purely physical. It's psychological and financial. The security situation remains fluid as vessels are still subject to route control, regulatory ambiguity, and elevated war-risk costs. Operators are evaluating not only whether they will be able to transit the Strait but also whether they will do so predictably, safely and profitably. This caution is the reason why the'recovery of flows' is lagged behind the recovery of fleet positioning - and why the system is so unstable. The tanker fleet is betting. The tanker fleet has made its bet. The Strait of Hormuz is not a reopened corridor until ballast flows are converted into sustained cargo movement and transit numbers stabilise. Oil?markets may be pricing in a return to 'normality. Tanker fleets are still dealing with the possibility that normalcy hasn't yet arrived. The opinions expressed are those of Gavin Maguire a columnist at. This column is great! Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks.
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AfD leader vows restore German-Russian relations as she seeks chancellery
Alice Weidel, leader of the far right Alternative for Germany (AfD), said that Germany should stop a boycott against Russian oil and gas in order to boost its flagging economy. She was describing the ambitions of her party to become the next national government. Weidel stated that the AfD could win two important federal state elections in the next few months. He described them as a milestone to securing a?post? of German chancellor by the time the 2020 national elections are due. The success of Made in Germany was due to the cheap energy that Russia provided. Weidel stated that we need to get it back. "The loss has put us years behind." The loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs has been devastating. "It has made us dependent upon the United States who sells us electricity at much higher prices." SEES ELECTIONS as 'DECISIVE MOLESTONES Before sanctions were imposed in 2022 over Moscow's invasion into Ukraine, Russia provided more than a quarter of Germany's crude imports and?more than half its natural gas. Germany is also struggling to recover from the shock of the shut down of the important undersea Nord Stream Pipeline, which was crippled in September 2022 by explosions. After a sharp rise in energy prices, the country's industrial sector is still in a rut. Volkswagen, the car giant, is also considering a job cut of up to 100,000. Weidel's remarks?highlight potential fragility in the Western alliance that supports Ukraine. Germany's government supports Ukraine but the public is divided. Weidel made the remarks ahead of September elections in two key eastern German states, Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, where ?the AfD is dominating polls. If the AfD wins control, regional governments will challenge Berlin's immigration policy, which they claim is too generous. They would also reject the financial burden placed on local governments. This would be a major shift in the committee style of government that is based on the "consensus" model. It could also give the AfD the opportunity to gain national power. "Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are decisive milestones," Weidel said. "If we win in Saxony-Anhalt, then Mecklenburg-Vorpommern will probably follow. "I can see AfD at the chancellery by the next election or afterward." A victory of the far-right party, Saxony-Anhalt, would be a blow for mainstream parties, such as the Christian Democrats of Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who have refused to cooperate with the AfD. Voters could be influenced by the lower energy costs in Russia and by the possibility of a cheaper alternative. Germany's relationship to Russia is more important in the East, where the Soviet Union ruled until the fall the Berlin Wall over 35 years ago. There are many who have a positive view of Russia, but a negative one towards Germany's protector and military force, the United States. "WE WILL NOT TAKE EVERYTHING OFF ITS HEAD" Weidel made his comments about Russia after a senior AfD legislator Markus Frohnmaier visited Russia earlier in the month. He met Alexei Miller the?head? of Russian energy giant Gazprom and called for a reopening the Nord Stream pipeline. Frohnmaier rebuffed critics of his trip and said he understood U.S. Investors were examining reopening Nord Stream to Germany. This could mean Germany paying a fee for Russian gas. He said: "We must be very careful that in Germany we do not miss the opportunity to return to the Russian market." Mr Miller stated that it would be three months before the gas supply was resumed. Roderich Käsewetter is a Christian Democrat member of the Merz parliament who said that AfD’s pro-Russian position was distorting?the German public debate. Kiesewetter stated that the AfD is using the romanticisation of Russia, especially with an eye towards the upcoming elections in eastern Germany. Weidel denied that her party is extremist. This was classified by Germany’s spy agency in the past year. She said, "The way that we view ourselves and how our political opponents judge us are very different." "People describe us as far-right. We are in fact a party of the average person. "We will not change everything if we are elected." (Reporting by John O'Donnell, Editing by Andrew Heavens).
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Swiss stocks: Factors to be on the lookout for June 30
Here are some of the main factors that could affect Swiss stocks on Tuesday: COMPANY STATEMENTS MSC?GROUP Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone in India announced on Tuesday that Switzerland’s MSC Group would acquire a 49% stake in the Vizhinjam Port for $1.4 billion. This, it claimed, was the largest private foreign investment in port infrastructure in India. ECONOMY *June Swiss KOF indicator is due at 0700 GMT. *Swiss May Official Reserves Assets due at 0700 GMT. (Reporting by Zurich newsroom and Gdansk newsroom) |1|For Top News ?in a multimedia Web format on Eikon visit: ?https://bit.ly/2NDFd6g FOR RELATED PRICES, NEWS ?AND OTHER ?TOPICS, DOUBLE-CLICK ON: Daily Swiss stock market report ?in German All SMI ?constituent stocks DJ STOXX index Top 10 STOXX sectors Top ?10 EUROSTOXX sectors Swiss ?mid-cap index Swiss ?all-share index Swiss market digest Sector overview All Swiss news Swiss research news All equity news SPEED GUIDES: |1|
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Adani Ports sells 49% of its Indian port stake to MSC for $1.4billion
India's Adani?and Special Economic Zone announced?on Tuesday?that switzerland's msc?group will acquire a 49 percent stake in its Vizhinjam?port for $1.4 billion. It said that this is the largest foreign private investment made in domestic port infrastructure. MSC, world's largest container ship?company will invest through its Terminal Investment unit. Adani Ports The partnership is expected to boost cargo volumes and accelerate ramp up at the Kerala based port. Adani Ports said that the investment was part of their strategy to deepen partnerships with global port operators in order to 'drive traffic and accelerate capacity ramp-ups at Vizhinjam. This is one of its main 'growth hubs. Adani Ports has now partnered with MSC for the third time, following joint ventures at its ports in Mundra and Ennore. (Reporting and editing by Sonia Cheema in Bengaluru, Kashish Tandon is based in Bengaluru)
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Shipping firms claim that US retailers are putting China on the front burner for holiday orders.
Shipping executives reported that U.S. retailers had brought orders from China forward by four to six weeks in order to ensure their inventory for Black Friday and the Christmas holidays before tariff increases are expected later this year. The detente between the world's two biggest powers has been preserved by President Donald Trump's visit to China in late February, but there is still a lot of uncertainty. The 10% U.S. universal tariff Washington imposed in February after the Supreme Court declared certain earlier tariffs to be illegal expires on 24 July, but it's widely expected that higher levies will replace it. After an investigation into the use of forced labour in China, which Beijing denies is a result of the investigation, U.S. trade representative has proposed a tariff of 12.5% on imports. A final decision will be made within months. Tony Meng is a senior sales manager for XPD Global, based in China. U.S. Exports Expected to Stay Strong in June Normally, such orders peak between July and September. However, shipping firms reported that volumes in May & June were higher than anticipated. This contributed to an increase in shipping costs. Frontloading could mean that the 35% increase in U.S. Imports from China, which outpaced April's 11% and March's contraction in May, will be maintained in June, but it may fade in later summer. China's exports have been the main growth driver for this year, compensating structural weakness in its domestic demand. They also built on a strong 2025 when China posted a $1.2 trillion record trade surplus. In May, the top U.S. products exported to China by value were smartphones, lithium-ion battery, solid-state drive, toys, kitchenware, and festival items. The data for June will be released by July 14. In a recent statement, shipping group Maersk stated that the container space on the China-U.S. route has been getting tighter. Since mid-May due to "stronger demand from customers and earlier bookings for the season." An executive in China, who asked to remain anonymous because he wasn't authorised to talk to the media said that back-to school items, such as apparel and stationery, were included in the frontloading of May-June, and early Christmas stockpiling was also a factor. The rise in May was due to orders for soccer World Cup items, such as jerseys, flags and souvenirs. The U.S. is co-hosting the tournament along with Canada and Mexico. Shipping Costs Rise Drewry's World Container Index, a maritime consultancy, showed that spot shipping rates between Shanghai and New York were $7,149 for a 40-foot container on June 25, 6% more than the week before?and 25% higher than last year. On the Shanghai to Los Angeles routes, the cost was $5.750, which is 12% higher than the previous week, and 54% more expensive than the previous year. Drewry's report stated that "Importers are continuing to frontload shipments in anticipation of possible tariff changes and higher bunker costs." Outdoor furniture manufacturer Jin Chaofeng stated that it would be difficult to pass on the full cost of shipping fees to customers. He cited thin margins and pricing power for Chinese manufacturers who operate in less-technologically advanced industries. Kyle Henderson, CEO of Vizion and co-founder, Vizion's container-tracking software, cautioned that tariffs "still weigh" on the overall U.S. market demand, which is below its three-year average, and can only be described as normal-to-soft. Henderson, citing recent cancellations of sailings, said that the higher shipping costs are due to capacity management by transport companies, rather than a surge in U.S. consumer demand. Henderson predicts that volumes will drop in the third quarter and after July due to "a combination of inventory already landed, and a tariff climate that structurally increases the cost of China origin goods."
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Thai Airways employee arrested after heroin is found in bags
Australian Federal Police reported that a 'Thai airline employee' was charged with importing heroin in excess of a kilogram (2 pounds) after customs officials found it hidden inside tote bags. Police said that border officers screened 12 bags belonging to the 26-year old woman who, according to Thai Airways, was a flight attendant at Melbourne Airport when she arrived on June 25. The heroin found in the bags had an estimated street price of A$500,000 (343,300). * She is charged with importing a controlled border drug and possessing a quantity that could be sold. Each charge is punishable by a maximum of 25 years in prison. * The woman has been remanded into custody since June 26. She is scheduled to appear at the Melbourne Magistrates' Court in September. Thai Airways said in a press release that it has strict rules for the conduct of its employees. It also stated that they are "ready to cooperate fully with the authorities during the entire process". Simone Butcher, Acting Commander of the Australian Federal Police (AFP), said: "The AFP'remains unwavering' in its efforts against individuals who use employment or their community?standing as a means to promote drug trafficking." * Australian Border Force commander Clint Sims stated that 'criminal syndicates continue to target trusted insiders including airline crews in order to smuggle illegal substances into Australia.
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Air New Zealand names Kris Cudmore CFO and delays Boeing 787 delivery
Air New Zealand announced on Tuesday that Kris Cudmore, an insider, had been appointed as chief financial officer. The airline also said two Boeing 787 deliveries would now be postponed beyond 2026. Cudmore will assume the role of Infrastructure, Planning and Commercial?Lead on?August 3. He has served as an advisor with the company for three years, before joining the airline formally in 2025. Cudmore held senior positions at companies such as Spark New Zealand and Telstra. The flag carrier released a statement outlining a plan to reduce?costs? and return the airline back to profitability?, following a review?by CEO Nikhil Ravishankar?since he assumed the helm?in October 2025. Air 'NZ announced that it would "re-profiling " deliveries of new aircraft in response to the "concertina impact" expected for fiscal year 2027. The 'first two Boeing 787 aircraft - delivery is now shifted to 2027, from fiscal year 2026.
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Honeywell Aerospace shares fall in Nasdaq debut
Honeywell Aerospace closed Monday's trading down by?0.4%? after making its Nasdaq debut. The company was spun off from Honeywell in a larger breakup of Honeywell, one of the few major industrial conglomerates. The shares opened higher and gained about 7% at one point, but then fell back due to a volume of 8.5 million, ending down 82 cents, or $220.19 per share. The debut of the company comes at a period when investors are eager to buy aerospace and defense assets due to pent-up interest and increasing military spending. CEO Jim Currier stated that the spinoff would help the company meet the demand of?planemakers Boeing & Airbus. It will allow it to make more rapid decisions, such as if to deploy capital for higher production. Currier stated, "We are able to?support Boeing as they continue ramping." We have a very, very clear,?visibility of what their ramp -needs are going forward. The U.S. manufacturer of auxiliary power systems, avionics, and other aircraft system expects to earn $6.5 billion by 2030. The company expects a sales increase of 7 to 9% in this year, and a free cash flow between $1 billion and $1.5 billion. Honeywell announced that it will separate into three independent companies in 2025, focusing on aerospace, automation and advanced materials. The process is expected to be completed this year. Supply chain issues have been a problem for commercial and private jet manufacturers. Honeywell Aerospace also looks at M&A deals that focus on "technologies in high-demand in aerospace" such as electrification and autonomy, safety, efficiency, productivity, and effectiveness, he added. The company announced earlier this month that it would focus on investing in its supply chain and capacity to grow, instead of focusing on dividends or stock buybacks. Currier stated that 'planemakers also are more open to their growth plans when dealing with large suppliers such as Honeywell. "There was a bit of a lack in transparency about the production rates that used to drive second-guessing. Are they really going to achieve or aren't they? He said. He said, "Transparency is now at a new level that I have never seen before. This is really necessary in an environment of supply constraints." Reporting by Aatreyee Dasgupta and Allison Lampert, both in Bengaluru; editing by Joyjeet Das & David Gaffe
Barclays purchases a long-term lease for 750 million pounds sterling on its Canary Wharf headquarters
Barclays bought a 999 year?lease of its global headquarters at?Canary Wharf, London? for PS750 million ($992.8?million), committing their long-term future in the recovering financial district.
The British bank stated that the deal would give it control over the building well beyond the expiration of its current lease with landlord Canary Wharf Group, in 2039. It also said that the transaction should have a neutral effect on its capital ratio and its earnings.
East London's financial district has?improved since the post-pandemic slump that caused HSBC to choose to leave.
The lettings market has recovered over the last couple of years. Spanish bank BBVA, fintech company Zopa and Wall Street investment bank JPMorgan have all taken space.
Barclays CEO?C.S. said: "One Churchill Place is our global headquarters and home for over two decades." Venkatakrishnan.
This acquisition provides us with a?long-term guarantee, greater flexibility in our London footprint and confirms our confidence that London is one of the?world's leading global financial centers.
(source: Reuters)