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The war between Iran and ROI ushers a golden age of oil refining. Bousso: It won't be long.

The Iran war has triggered record oil refining earnings that are reviving the Big Oil business. Many investors had written it off. The sector is expected to deliver strong returns over the next few years. However, structural changes in oil demand will cause refining to lose its shine quickly.

Refining is the least glamorous part of the oil industry, despite its critical role in the global supply chain. Western oil majors have been steadily retreating from the sector in the past 20 years, due to high operating costs, volatile margins, rising carbon costs, and increasing competition from state-backed refining companies from the Middle East and Africa. This retreat accelerated in the late 2010s in Europe as companies and governments bet more on the rapid adoption of electric vehicles to curb fuel demand in the 2030s. Refining capacity of Western oil giants shrank drastically as a result. According to calculations by Open Interest, the combined refining volume for BP and Chevron, Exxon Mobil Shell, TotalEnergies, and Exxon Mobil fell from 16,4 million barrels a day in 2005 (representing around 22%) to 10,4 million bpd in last year. This represents roughly 13% worldwide crude processing. Shell led the retreat by reducing its refinery interests from 40 to seven in the last five years.

The refining climate has improved in the last year due to the increase in conflict in oil-rich areas. First, there's Iran. Refinery margins have reached record levels due to the combination of the effective closure of Strait of Hormuz for months, which limited refiners access to crude oil and Tehran's attacks against refineries in the Middle East. Refineries in Asia were forced to reduce their operating rates due to the loss of Middle Eastern crude. China, despite its huge crude stocks, chose to reduce refining and fuel exports aggressively to compensate for the sharp drop in crude imports.

These disruptions combined to remove around 5 million barrels a day or 6% of global refining production from pre-war levels in the second quarter. According to the International Energy Agency, global refinery runs have averaged 78 million barrels per day, the lowest since the COVID-19 Pandemic of 2020. In the meantime, Russian refinery output has been severely reduced by months of unrelenting drone attacks from Ukraine on Russian energy infrastructure, which forced Moscow to ban exports of diesel. That announcement sent diesel prices soaring.

Pricing Superpower

The combined impact of both conflicts on the profitability of?refining has been dramatic. Big Oil has enormous pricing power due to the shortage of refined products. This has encouraged operators and refineries to operate at full capacity. U.S. refineries that emerged as the largest fuel suppliers in the world during the conflict operated at 97% of capacity for the week ending July 24. This is well above the long-term average of 90%.

BP's refining indicator margin, a measure of global refining profit, climbed from $17 per barrel to $30 in the second quarter, up from $12 a quarter earlier and $17 during the first. Indicator has averaged 42 dollars per barrel in the third quarter. Exxon reported downstream profits of $5.5billion in the second quarter. This was its highest result since 2022. The record diesel production drove this. Chevron’s downstream earnings rose to $4.9billion, their highest level for this decade. Shell's products division reported an adjusted profit of $2.5 billion, its highest in a decade. Its refining network was operating at 102% utilisation during the second quarter. Patrick Pouyanne, the Chief Executive Officer of TotalEnergies, summed up it well when he told investors late last month that their refining division had performed "exceptionally."

BP will report its earnings on Tuesday.

CAN IT LAST?

The question is when. Fuel markets would be impacted by a sustainable solution to the U.S./Iran conflict, which involves a full reopening of Strait of Hormuz.

It is clear that the problems of the industry cannot be fixed immediately. Repairing the damage to dozens refineries in Russia and the Middle East will take many months and even years. Global spare refining capacity is extremely thin.

Demand is also a positive factor. Concerns about energy security have been rekindled by the Iran war. To protect themselves against future supply shocks, many governments have expanded strategic storage facilities to store both crude oil and refined fuels.

The first step for governments is to replenish the stocks that were depleted by the conflict. According to estimates by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, global oil stocks dropped by 5.1 millions barrels per day during the second quarter. They are expected to drop by another 2.2 million bpd by the third quarter. The rebuilding of diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel inventories will take years, resulting in persistent demand. Alan Gelder is the senior vice president of Wood Mackenzie's refining division. He expects that refining margins will remain high and utilisation rates will be high through the end decade. This is due to the continued growth of oil demand, and the limited pipeline of refining projects.

The party won't last

The boom is a symptom of underlying fragility. War, damaged infrastructure, and scarcity are the main reasons for today's windfall profits, not a structural improvement of industry fundamentals. The world's capacity has been reduced faster than the demand. But this might not last for very long. Many countries that have limited domestic'refining capacity are now reevaluating whether they need to increase their local processing capability. Australia, for instance, has already begun to consider such plans. Over time, these investments could lead to a new wave in capacity and ultimately an oversupply.

Oil majors are aware of this fact. Exceptional margins for a few years may be enough to slow down the decline of refining. They are unlikely to reverse the decline.

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(source: Reuters)