Latest News
-
Iran announces that the Pakistani army chief will visit Tehran on Monday
Esmaeil baghaei, the'spokesperson' for the Iranian foreign ministry, said that Asim Munir, the Pakistani army chief, will visit Tehran on Monday in order to continue his 'efforts' to bring peace and stability to the region. Pakistan has assumed a role as a mediator in the negotiations between Iran, the U.S., and Israel to end the war that began in February with the U.S.-Israeli strikes against Iran. Two sources in the Pakistani government confirmed Munir’s visit. First source: Iran and Pakistan are in direct contact. Second source: The 'talks' would also cover recent developments, such as the threat by Donald Trump to impose tougher sanctions on Iran. "He (Munir) will discuss peace under Islamabad's MoU, Trump's ?warning and the ?situation after the Pakistan-Turkey-Saudi Arab Agreement and Houthi issues with Iranian leaders," the source said. The visit coincides with heightened tensions, as Iran threatens to respond militarily to U.S. sanctions plans that could put further strain on the Islamic Republic’s already-ailing economy. The announcement will be made on Monday, when U.S. officials are expected to announce details about the planned sanctions that they have described as "the most severe sanctions in history" against?Iran. Trump has warned of the economic consequences for any country providing "any kind of lifeline" to Iran as he seeks to isolate it. The Strait of Hormuz is a virtual standstill for oil shipments. Tehran has threatened to hit unauthorized oil tankers who try to?transit the vital waterway. Iran's economic situation is already being impacted by sanctions.
-
Search for 22 people after Bulker sinks off India
India's Coast Guard &?Navy conducted search and rescue operations on Sunday off the east coast of India after a cargo vessel?flagged by Panama sank with a crew of?24. Two Chinese nationals were rescued. Shyam Jagannathan is the director general of India’s Maritime Administration. He told reporters that two Chinese seafarers were rescued. They said their vessel began to list and sank in eight minutes. This forced crews to abandon ship. Jagannathan stated that the chances of finding survivors usually fall sharply after 12 hour, but rescuers are continuing their search. According to the Indian Coast Guard, 22 crew members are still'missing' from Ocean Winner. These include 18 Chinese nationals, 3 Myanmar?nationals, and 1 Bangladeshi. In a recent post, the Navy stated that the Indian Navy was working closely with the Coast Guard in order to locate the rest of the crew. A Coast Guard spokesperson said that two vessels were sent from Sri Vijaya Puram (formerly Port Blair) to help with the search and rescue operation. According to an initial report from India's Maritime Administration, the Ocean 'Winner' was carrying iron ore bound towards China when it left India's eastern 'Paradip' port on Friday. According to government sources, the cargo ship sank 240 nautical miles away from the port. It was not known what caused the sinking. (Disha Mishra, Bengaluru, contributed additional reporting; Mayank Bhardwaj wrote the article; Raju Gopalakrishnan edited it)
-
India launches rescue operations after bulk carrier sinks near east coast
The Indian Coast Guard reported that India's maritime rescue agency had lost contact with a cargo vessel flying the Panamanian flag, which sank near the eastern coast of India. According to Commandant Amit?Uniyal?, a spokesperson for Coast Guard, the vessel was manned by 24 people, 20 of whom were Chinese, three Myanmarese and one Bangladeshi. Uniyal reported that the Coast Guard dispatched?two vessels from Sri Vijaya Puram (formerly known as Port Blair) for a search and rescue mission. The Coast Guard has rescued two people from life rafts. The agency reported that a search and rescue mission was underway for seafarers aboard the vessel. According to government sources the Ocean Winner was carrying ore from India to Singapore after leaving India's eastern Paradip Port on Thursday. They added that 240 nautical mile away, the ship sank. The cause of the sinking is unknown. Captain Alekha Charan Sahoo said that he hoped for the best and prayed for the safety of all the crew on board. Reporting by Nidhi verma, Saurabh sharma, Jatindra dash, and Disha mishra from Bengaluru. Editing by Sharon Singleton, Rod Nickel, and Rod Nickel.
-
Two US tanker planes leave Bulgaria one month after their deployment infuriated Iran
Bulgaria's defence ministry announced on Saturday that two U.S. aircraft, tankers, had departed the Bezmer base in Bulgaria. This comes nearly a month after their deployment angered Iran. The United States has been at war against Iran since February 28 and requested that their temporary deployment be made under an agreement governing the?joint use of military installations. Sofia rejected the charge made by Iran that their deployment would be complicity in "aggression" and "war crimes". Defense Minister?Dimitar?Stoyanov informed reporters that two U.S. KC-135 aircraft left Bulgaria 'on Friday. It was not possible to reach the U.S. authorities for comment immediately. Residents in the area protested the deployment of the aircraft approved by Bulgarian parliament on July 22. They feared that the planes could be attacked by Iranian missiles and drones. Stoyanov stated that all of the aircraft's flights during their temporary deployment were training missions over other countries, and that Bulgaria had "no direct threats to our national safety." He said: "We work in full coordination with the U.S. Government?and have prior?information. This is why our decisions are well-founded." (Reporting and editing by Timothy Heritage, Aleksandar Vasovic)
-
Seven people killed in UK when vehicle traveling the wrong way strikes police car
The local police said that seven people, including two police officers, died in a crash on Saturday in the?northeast of England after a vehicle driving 'the wrong way' down a major highway hit a marked police vehicle. The incident took place around 3:39 am (0239 GMT), near the South Bank area, east of Middlesbrough. All occupants of both vehicles died on the spot. Cleveland Police Chief Constable, Victoria Fuller said: "This tragic incident will be felt throughout Cleveland and our communities as well as the entire policing community." The police force said that it was still investigating and working to identify all of the victims. As is standard in these cases, the Independent Office for Police Conduct will review the incident. Ireland's chief of police warned this week that following two recent head on crashes near Dublin in which five people died, some young drivers were driving wrong way on the motorway "for social network likes". A?parliamentary committee in Ireland has asked TikTok how it removes "content that appears to glorify dangerous and illegal behavior?on our streets". Ireland's media regulator issued a similar demand on Tuesday. (Reporting and editing by Alexandra Hudson, Joe Bavier, and David Milliken)
-
South Korea ships test Arctic commercial route amid Western concern
On Saturday, a South Korean container vessel set sail?for Europe via arctic in the nation's first commercial trip on the route. The?nation is testing its viability and hopes to turn the southeastern port of Busan into a maritime hub. The PanStar Acro is expected to sail north hugging the eastern Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula, crossing the Bering Sea and taking the Northern Sea Route. It will stop in Felixstowe, Britain, Rotterdam, the Netherlands, and Poland's Gdansk before returning in a trip that should take between 40 and 45 days. President Lee 'Jae Myung made Arctic shipping for South Korea a priority, making it a "shipping powerhouse". Officials claim that this could transform Busan, and make the Arctic a regular trading route by 2030. The project could cause friction with Western allies who want to?keep Russia isolated? during its war in Ukraine. Seoul has spoken to Moscow about the trip, including whether or not the ship needs help if it gets stuck in the ice. The Oceans Ministry of South Korea and the Foreign Ministry of Russia did not respond when asked for comments. According to Norway's Center?for High-North Logistics, last year?88 ships made 103 transits along the route. This is up from 97 vessels in 2024 and 42 in 2022. These vessels were primarily from countries such as Russia and China. Scientists say that melting Arctic ice makes it easier to travel through the north, and the increased shipping speeds up global warming. PanStar, a South Korean container ship operator, has secured 837 TEU cargo on the government-backed trip. This includes auto parts and chemical products as well as 100 empty containers. A government official stated that the PanStar?Acro will flag off at around 8 pm (1100 GMT), depending on loading and other preparations.
-
Muslim group condemns Texas's request for federal investigation of airport wash facilities
Texas Governor Greg Abbott?on Friday requested a federal probe into airport facilities to determine if ritual washing was performed before islamic prayers. A Muslim advocacy group referred to this as an "anti-Muslim" political stunt. Abbott, in a letter sent to the Department of Justice urging it to review immediately the ablution stations at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport (DFWIA) and George Bush Intercontinental Airport (GWIA), criticized them for being discriminatory. Abbott's office stated that because airports receive federal funding, they are required to adhere to a number of conditions. This includes complying with all applicable laws against discrimination. Before daily prayers, many Muslims wash their arms, legs and faces. The Texas chapter of the Council on American-Islamic Relations (an advocacy group) said that these?are not spaces for Muslims only, any more than nursing rooms or interfaith prayer rooms are 'Christian-only.' "These are accommodations that are open to all travelers, but are primarily used by the Muslim community." This is not discrimination. This is how accessible public infrastructure should look," CAIR Texas said in a press release. Abbott threatened to revoke funding for the state airports last week after referring them to Sean Duffy, U.S. Secretary of Transportation. Abbott stated that DFW has abandoned its plans to build more ablution stations as a result of this referral. The airport announced?this past week that it had determined the benefit originally expected may not be realized if more ablution stations are built. World Population Review reports that there are 4.5 million Muslims living in the United States, including more than 300,000. U.S. rights activists?say Islamophobia is on the rise since September 11, 2001 attacks in New York and Washington, D.C., and recently due to anti-immigration policy, white supremacy, and?the aftermath of Israel's Gaza war. Rights advocates have also documented a spike in anti Muslim messaging and rhetoric during U.S. campaigning, as Muslim American politicians rose to high office. Republican governors of Florida and Texas have branded CAIR as a terrorist organization. The group has opposed Republican President Donald Trump’s crackdown on immigration, and pro-Palestinian demonstrations. CAIR and civil rights groups denounced these claims, and claimed that Republicans were trying to incite fear towards Muslims.
-
If the court approves, US Postal Service will issue rules to tighten up mail-in voting.
The U.S. The U.S. USPS stated that it was issuing the 95-page rule so it could be implemented for the next election if a judge lifted their injunctions. USPS will not deliver ballots to states that don't comply with the new rules. USPS final rule requires that states provide a list of voters who have received mailed ballots. The U.S. District Court Judge Indira Talwani of Boston has blocked USPS from adopting the rules that President Donald Trump ordered ahead of November's elections, which will determine control of Congressional seats. Trump, who is a Republican and a member of the Republican Party, signed the executive order on March 1, after calling for stricter voting rules by mail. He also claimed that the reason behind his defeat in the 2020 elections was widespread voter fraud. The order, which was published late Friday night, will be officially published on 26 August. However, USPS will not take any action to implement it unless the court lifts its injunction. USPS directed questions to the White House. If the rule is implemented, USPS won't collect or record party membership, nor will it inspect the ballot content. Postal workers will also not be authorized to open mail that has been sealed against inspection. USPS will keep data on the outside of the envelope including the address and barcode information. USPS Postmaster-General David Steiner defended this plan in June. He said that the Postal Service is making sure "we match what a state thinks they are sending to what gets sent." Democrats and many states have said that USPS has no authority to change the rules of elections. It is also too close to an election for any major changes. The new rule, announced on Friday, would require that states provide the USPS with the names and barcodes associated with their mail-in votes for federal elections. USPS stated earlier that it "will assist in determining adherence to federal laws and facilitate law enforcement." (Reporting and editing by William Mallard, Muralikumar Aantharaman and David Shepardson)
The war between Iran and ROI ushers in a golden age of oil refining. Bousso: It won't be long.
The Iran war has triggered record oil refining earnings that have boosted Big Oil's profits, giving new life to a business which many investors had written off. Refining is expected to produce strong returns over the next few years. However, structural changes in oil demand will cause its star to fade.
Refining is the least glamorous part of the oil industry, despite its critical role in the global energy chain. Western oil majors have been steadily retreating from the sector for the last two decades. They were 'deterred' by high operating expenses, notoriously volatile profit margins, increasing carbon costs, and a growing competition from state-backed refining companies in the Middle East. This retreat intensified in the late 2010s in Europe as companies and governments bet more on the rapid adoption of electric vehicles to curb fuel demand in 2030, thus reducing the need for refining investments. Western oil giants saw their refining capacities shrink dramatically as a result. According to calculations by Open Interest, the combined refining volume for BP and Chevron, Exxon Mobil Shell, TotalEnergies, and Exxon Mobil fell from 16,4 million barrels a day in 2005 (representing around 22%) to 10,4 million bpd, or approximately 13% of global crude processing. Shell led the retreat by reducing its refinery interests from 40 to seven in the last five years.
The refining climate has improved in the last year due to the increase in conflict in oil-rich areas. First, there's Iran. Refinery margins have reached record levels due to the combination of the effective closure of Strait of Hormuz for months, which has limited refiners access to crude oil and Tehran's attacks against refineries in the Middle East. Refineries in Asia were forced to reduce their operating rates due to the loss of Middle Eastern crude. China, which has huge crude stocks, chose to reduce its refining activities and stop fuel exports in order to compensate for the sharp drop in crude imports.
These disruptions combined to remove around 5 million barrels a day, or 6% of global refining production before the war, in the second quarter. According to the International Energy Agency, global refinery runs averaged 78 million barrels per day, the lowest level since the COVID-19 Pandemic of 2020. The relentless drone attacks by the Ukrainians on Russian energy infrastructure has led to a sharp reduction in Russia's refinery output. This forced Moscow to ban exports of diesel. That announcement sent diesel prices soaring.
Pricing Superpower
The combined impact of both conflicts on the profitability of refining has been "dramatic". Big Oil has enormous pricing power due to the shortage of refined products and operators are encouraged to operate plants at full capacity. U.S. refineries - which became the world's biggest fuel suppliers during the war - operated at 97% capacity in the week ending July 24. This was well above the long-term average for around 90%.
BP's refining indicator margin, a measure of global refining profit, climbed from $17 per barrel to $30 in the second quarter, up from $12 a quarter earlier and $17 during the first. Indicator has averaged 42 dollars per barrel in the third quarter. Exxon reported downstream profits of $5.5billion in the second quarter. This was its highest result since 2022. The record diesel production drove this. Chevron’s downstream earnings rose to $4.9billion, their highest level for the decade. Shell's products division reported an adjusted profit of $2.5 billion, its highest in a decade. Its refining network was operating at 102% utilisation during the second quarter. Patrick Pouyanne, the Chief Executive Officer of TotalEnergies, summed up it well when he told investors late last month that their refining division had performed "exceptionally."
BP will report its earnings on Tuesday.
CAN IT LAST?
The question is when. The fuel market would be impacted by a sustainable solution to the U.S./Iran conflict, which includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz in its entirety and eventual recovery of Chinese refinery activity. But when this might happen is still unknown.
It is clear that the problems of this industry cannot be fixed immediately. Repairing the damage to dozens refineries in Russia and the Middle East will take many months and even years. Global spare refining capacity is extremely low.
Demand is also a positive factor. Concerns about energy security have been rekindled by the Iran war. To protect themselves from future supply shocks, many governments are expanding their strategic storage facilities.
The first step for governments is to replenish the stocks that were depleted by the conflict. According to estimates by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, global oil stocks dropped by 5.1 millions barrels per day during the second quarter. They are expected to drop by another 2.2 million bpd by the third quarter. The rebuilding of diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel inventories will take years, creating a persistent demand. Alan Gelder is the senior vice president of refining for Wood Mackenzie. He expects that refining margins will remain high and utilisation rates will be high through the end decade. This is due to the continued growth of?oil and the limited pipeline of refining projects.
The party won't last
The boom is a symptom of underlying fragility. War, damaged infrastructure, and scarcity are the main reasons for today's windfall profits, not a structural improvement of industry fundamentals. The world's capacity has been reduced faster than the demand. This?might?not be the case forever. Many countries that have limited refining capacity are now re-evaluating whether they require more local processing capability. Australia is one country that has already begun to consider such plans. Over time, these investments could lead to a new surge of capacity that would eventually lead a surplus.
Oil majors are aware of this fact. The decline of the refinery sector may be slowed by a few years of high margins. They are unlikely to reverse the decline.
You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
(source: Reuters)