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LNG shipping rates topple to multi-year lows as new vessels come online

Liquefied gas shipping rates have actually struck multiyear lows and might extend losses going into 2025, analysts and shipping sources stated, with brand-new tankers being included at a faster rate than LNG production is rising and spot demand still lukewarm.

New LNG tankers, built in anticipation of rising U.S. exports after a plunge in Russian gas supplies to Europe in 2022, are coming online earlier than liquefaction jobs, which have actually been delayed amidst inflation from strong wage growth and a scarcity of skilled labour and devices.

With more ships anticipated to come, freight rates for LNG tankers may remain depressed till late 2025 when new production launches, stated Samuel Good, head of LNG prices at commodity rates agency Argus.

Some liquefaction capability delays, generally in the U.S., have assisted cause this inequality between fleet development and LNG supply growth, he stated.

LNG freight rates for the Atlantic and Pacific basins fell on Friday to $20,750 and $36,750 daily respectively, according to pricing company Spark Commodities.

The rates are down 87% in the Atlantic and 78% in the Pacific from year-ago levels, and are the weakest for that duration given that a minimum of 2019.

There is no arbitrage opportunity between the U.S. and northeast Asia by means of the Cape of Good Wish for the next 12 months, according to Trigger Commodities, making it more rewarding for U.S. cargoes to be provided to northwest Europe.

With the market signalling U.S. cargoes to Europe, Asia will have to source more of its LNG locally, resulting in many LNG vessels in both the Atlantic and Pacific mainly remaining within basin, said analyst Qasim Afghan.

This lower load mileage and thus higher vessel schedule, when integrated with a large number of newbuildings getting in the marketplace, create a few of the significant aspects triggering LNG freight rates to drop in current months.

There were around 45 newbuild shipments so far this year up to early October, according to Argus' Great, with at least as numerous set up in the next 6 months, pending delays to shipments.

We do not see this rate of additions slowing considerably up until mid-2026, he added.

A shipbroker approximated that almost 70 new ships this year will be contributed to the worldwide fleet of near 800 vessels, with more following year. He decreased to be recognized as he was not authorised to speak to the media.

Lukewarm need for LNG in Europe and Asia has also deteriorated the call for vessels for delivery of the fuel, the shipbroker said, with European storage mostly already full ahead of winter season.

There is no economic reward for traders to store LNG on vessels in the lack of a contango structure where costs are greater in future months, they included.

Using vessels as drifting storage results in less vessels in the market ... But this time we are not seeing that opportunity at all.

(source: Reuters)